Will there be a new bike price war?

[Lovacott]

I've been looking at bikes online for the last six months or so and it's pretty clear that supply issues have flipped around 180 degrees.

I've been making do with an old modified Halfords Apollo MTB and buying spares from wherever could get them because there was nothing much available online or in store. Anything second hand listed online was also equally expensive.

My local bike shop had nothing a few weeks ago but is now starting to see stock flowing in.

Two weeks ago, Halfords only had ten bikes listed as "in stock" and they were mainly kids bikes or entry level MTB's.

Today, there are 221 bikes listed as in stock on the Halfords website including hybrids and so called "gravel" bikes which were unobtainable back in June or July.

With all of this stock suddenly flowing in at the same time as demand is dropping, will we see a new bike price war?

 

[vickster]

221 bikes nationally across the UKs largest bike retailer doesn’t sound like much in reality, if that’s all bikes including kids?

 

[sheddy]

Unlikely. Manufacturing and distribution costs can only go up with the additional expense of covid proceedures.

 

[screenman]

221 bikes nationally across the UKs largest bike retailer doesn’t sound like much in reality, if that’s all bikes including kids?

I agree, that would be less than one day of sales by a long way I guess.

 

[screenman]

Unlikely. Manufacturing and distribution costs can only go up with the additional expense of covid proceedures.

Along with the stupid Brexit I guess.

 

[Lovacott]

221 bikes nationally across the UKs largest bike retailer doesn’t sound like much in reality, if that’s all bikes including kids?

It's 221 different bikes available in store at the local Halfords.

A couple of months ago, there were zero bikes available in store.

 

[Lovacott]

Unlikely. Manufacturing and distribution costs can only go up with the additional expense of covid proceedures.

Where I work, they've used Covid19 as a reasonable excuse to make make pretty large scale redundancies (well over 10% of the workforce).

They mainly got rid of "dead wood" and they have also kicked this years negotiated pay rise into touch due to "unforeseen circumstances".

Now, there are fewer of us working much harder for less money (in real terms) in the face of an ever increasing demand and greater competition.

 

[screenman]

Where I work, they've used Covid19 as a reasonable excuse to make make pretty large scale redundancies (well over 10% of the workforce).

They mainly got rid of "dead wood" and they have also kicked this years negotiated pay rise into touch due to "unforeseen circumstances".

Now, there are fewer of us working much harder for less money (in real terms) in the face of an ever increasing demand and greater competition.

At least you have a job, how much money will the company you work for lose this year.

 

[wafter]

An interesting question... I certainly think the new market is going to suffer from enormous over-supply now the weather's turned and cycling appears less appealing to the average noob.

Whether this will translate into reduced prices is a different matter.. I think the reality will be that suppliers will just cut production / staffing to reflect the reduced demand, while has already said the cost of production will probably rise; and with it the floor price that must be taken for each bike just to break even. I guess there might be the odd reduction to get stock moving and free up some cashflow in the event of optimistic over-stocking by retailers.

Personally I think that (as usual but moreso) the smart money will be on used buys from a saturated market and people who are selling to free up space or get a bit of money back on what they'd spent, rather than for outright profit.

 

[vickster]

It's 221 different bikes available in store at the local Halfords.

A couple of months ago, there were zero bikes available in store.

So they’re on the shop floor or that’s what the store can order in from the warehouse?

My LBS still has no stock, they might be able to access some more in a few weeks but no guarantees

 

[Kajjal]

COVID has both increased the cost and demand for bikes. A poor or no deal brexit will push prices much higher and further reduce supply.

 

[Lovacott]

At least you have a job, how much money will the company you work for lose this year.

At the moment, we are down about 20% in turnover year on year but in the last couple of months, we have broken records in terms of our order book.

 

[screenman]

At the moment, we are down about 20% in turnover year on year but in the last couple of months, we have broken records in terms of our order book.

Sounds like you are working for a very sensible company, many out there are not and will not be as lucky.

 

[Lovacott]

Sounds like you are working for a very sensible company, many out there are not and will not be as lucky.

We are tied into the residential construction sector in the south west of England so demand is not something we have to worry about at the moment,

 

[Lovacott]

An interesting question... I certainly think the new market is going to suffer from enormous over-supply now the weather's turned and cycling appears less appealing to the average noob.
Whether this will translate into reduced prices is a different matter.

Business is all about turnover and nobody wants to be left holding onto stock branded as "2018" when the shop down the road is selling the "2021" version of the same thing for the same money.

I've been following a couple of bikes on the Halfords site and I've seen some minor price reductions over the last two weeks (£50 quid or so).

The astounding thing though is the sudden increase in stock and the drop in lead times from order to delivery.

What will be really interesting is the second hand market. Back in April, people were trying to flog two year old bikes for shop shelf prices.