Will there be a new bike price war?

[Lovacott]

You have to ask, do you really want/need another cycle or are you only looking for the discount? Businesses have all had a disasterous year and cashflow is always king.

I made the lifestyle change back in March. I dug out my old steel framed MTB and gave it a bit of a service and then I started going out every day doing ten miles of fairly flat cycle path (disused railway line around a river estuary). I did this for six weeks of furlough and then started cycling to work when I was asked back. I now do 80 to 100 miles per week over very hilly terrain in most weathers (though I draw the line at gale force winds).

I've spent a fortune on my bike over the last six months. I've replaced/upgraded pretty much every moving part other than the wheels. (groupset, bottom bracket, all bearings, cables, calipers, discs, tyres and gear controls). I've fitted a pannier rack, mudguards and a bottle dynamo lighting system. I've bought tools such as a crank extractor, bottom bracket tool, freewheel tool. I've also bought a helmet and a hi viz rain jacket.

All in, I've spent more than seven hundred quid tarting up what was an occasional use bike which cost me £120 five years ago.

My bike is heavy but it's very sturdy and well suited to some of the feral country lanes I cycle down.

What it's not very good for is weekend leisure cycling on better roads. Too much like hard work so my weekend distances are a bit limited.

I'm aiming to get hold of a half decent road bike to use for speed and fun whilst using the MTB as the daily commuting workhorse.

I've been looking at the market for the last three months or so, but there has literally been nothing available. Even the secondhand market has been asking new bike prices for old tat. Up until a week or so ago, Halfords had pretty much MTB's only but now stock of Hybrids and Road Bikes is starting to flow through. My local bike shop has also started to get stock in.

Someone told me that during the bike panic buying of March and April, the national bike sellers pumped prices up a bit and held back on things like special offers etc (I wasn't looking to buy back then so I'll have to take his word for it).

I'm planning on using the cycle to work scheme which is limited to £1000 so I'd like prices to fall back a bit in the £1000 to £1500 range so that I get more bike for my grand.

 

[Lovacott]

Probably only as a short-term result of the stamp duty "holiday" and lots of government spin during a time when many are still being paid to remain at home and a lot of slated job losses are yet to happen.
In addition housing is a completely different product / market / purchase to bikes, so I don't really think you can draw legitimate comparisons in any sense tbh.

House prices in Devon are getting really silly at the moment with city dwellers looking to re-locate. Devon is a popular retirement choice anyway with a four bed detached in North Devon costing less than a one bed flat over a takeaway in Holloway. We moved here 20 years ago when we sold our London burbs 3 bed terrace and used the equity to pay cash for six a bed detached home with sea views.

As you rightly say, the house market and bike market are two different animals. A Boardman ADV will cost the same in Newcastle as it does in Knightsbridge but you couldn't say the same for a three bed house.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

A poor or no deal brexit will push prices much higher and further reduce supply.

Most mass-produced bikes and bike components are manufactured outside the EU, so to try to conflate any supply/pricing issues with Brexit is nothing more than the usual hysterical Remoaner nonsense.
Many products from outside the EU could actually get cheaper once we no longer have to levy the EU's Common External Tariff on non-EU products. Its just a protectionist racket designed to keep things nice and cosy for EU companies with high business overheads and fat profit margins to defend.

 

[Lovacott]

On an Apollo mountain bike?

It was an Apollo built with the cheapest components and the shoddiest workmanship.

I've upgraded everything which matters and despite it being a bit heavy, it actually runs very well. Smooth gear changes, reliable braking in the wet etc. I've tried to configure the bike to suit the route I take and the conditions I cycle in.

I'm also of the mind that riding a heavier bike has helped to build my fitness more quickly than a state of the art road bike would have over the same distances.

We are a single income family of four living on a Devon wage so I don't exactly have cash coming out of my ears.

But we've agreed that I can use cycle to work as a finance option to buy a bike for a grand (which I will then use purely for leisure).

I haven't told her that bit yet though.

 

[Lovacott]

Many products from outside the EU could actually get cheaper once we no longer have to levy the EU's Common External Tariff on non-EU products.

Asian made cars will get cheaper and that is probably why we will get a trade deal with the EU.

V.W. has a ten percent market share in the UK, Renault has five percent, Citreon three percent and Seat two and a half percent. That's just a few manufacturers I pulled out of my head and there are many more (Mercedes, Fiat etc etc).

Slap WTO tariffs on European cars and it will hit their market share quite hard.

 

[the snail]

Slap WTO tariffs on European cars and it will hit their market share quite hard.

If we end up with no deal, then all imported cars will be subject to WTO tariffs - I think the WTO rules mean we can't discriminate. Quite likely that the pound will drop too. My guess is that bike prices will depend on how well importers/retailers predict sales, whether there is a slump in sales are the covid boom, i.e. supply vs. demand. Personally I buy when I need/want to, and I don't worry too much about price, as I think that if you buy the right bike it will last you a long time, and exactly what you paid for it won't matter much in the long run.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

If we end up with no deal, then all imported cars will be subject to WTO tariffs - I think the WTO rules mean we can't discriminate.

The standard WTO tariff on cars is 10%. However, if we do an individual trade deal with an exporting country, like Korea, the tariffs can be set at any agreed level, including zero.
The EU are shoot scared of the UK being able to bypass all their protectionist regulatory crap and do things on our own terms, which is why they are desperate to try to get us to sign up to their "level playing field" and ECJ jurisdiction. We could make mincemeat out of them competitively, simply by ditching the extra costs to doing business that their regimes involve, and they know this only too well.

 

[the snail]

The standard WTO tariff on cars is 10%. However, if we do an individual trade deal with an exporting country, like Korea, the tariffs can be set at any agreed level, including zero.

We could set a zero tariff across the board if we want, but we can't discriminate in the absence of a trade deal, which afaik we don't have.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

This is why it's important for us to concentrate on our trade relationships with the rest of the world, instead of pandering to the absurd demands of the likes of Barnier and Macron. The EU represents an ever-declining percentage of world trade anyway and it is not where the bulk of future economic growth is going to be. That will be concentrated in Asia and Latin America.

 

[Kajjal]

Most mass-produced bikes and bike components are manufactured outside the EU, so to try to conflate any supply/pricing issues with Brexit is nothing more than the usual hysterical Remoaner nonsense.
Many products from outside the EU could actually get cheaper once we no longer have to levy the EU's Common External Tariff on non-EU products. Its just a protectionist racket designed to keep things nice and cosy for EU companies with high business overheads and fat profit margins to defend.

Thats interesting, as you are knowledgeable in this area what are the EU’s tariffs on imported bikes and components, and what are the WTO tariffs the UK will face on exiting the EU for imported bikes and components ?

Granted the pound depreciating will need to to accounted for as well but exclude that for now.

 

[screenman]

Asian made cars will get cheaper and that is probably why we will get a trade deal with the EU.

V.W. has a ten percent market share in the UK, Renault has five percent, Citreon three percent and Seat two and a half percent. That's just a few manufacturers I pulled out of my head and there are many more (Mercedes, Fiat etc etc).

Slap WTO tariffs on European cars and it will hit their market share quite hard.

I predict the market share will remain the same and we will just have to pay more.