Your EU result predictions

[Pro Tour Punditry]

67% turnout
58% in 42% out*

*Euro regulations require the totals add to 100

Regarding a re-count, there is no "national re-count" and re-counts are restricted to local counts as determined locally*. So there will be no "oh, that's too close, we need to re-count every vote" scenario.

*presumably by local people

 

[MontyVeda]

If there are exit polls we should have a good idea by about half ten.

I've never been asked which way I voted on my way out, but my policy is to tell the pollsters a lie... this is probably why I've never been asked.

 

[Smokin Joe]

I've never been asked which way I voted on my way out, but my policy is to tell the pollsters a lie... this is probably why I've never been asked.

Thinking about exit polls again, if they do have them they may well be wildly inaccurate. The predictions from an exit poll are based on the voting swing compared to the previous election, there is no datum line this time.

 

[jefmcg]

Regarding a re-count, there is no "national re-count"

Is that true? I mean, it makes sense for house of commons, but if there is 1000 votes in it nation wide, there won't be a recount? I can't understand why you would do one locally. If the national total is clear, what's the point in a recount locally? All the votes are national, it's not like we are taking a single yes/no from each polling place/borough/county/whatever.


(Not an attack on Marmion, just surprised that this is how national referenda work, and too lazy to google it )

 

[Pro Tour Punditry]

Is that true?


(Not an attack on Marmion, just surprised that this is how national referenda work, and too lazy to google it )

You'll have to trust me on this one then.

I am, as always, correct of course.

 

[jefmcg]

You'll have to trust me on this one then.

I'm going to . The only alternative is to watch ITV/BBC tomorrow night, an listen to the endless prattle of constitutional experts. Life is too short.

 

[TVC]

Thinking about exit polls again, if they do have them they may well be wildly inaccurate. The predictions from an exit poll are based on the voting swing compared to the previous election, there is no datum line this time.

Again from this Radio2 session, there are no exit polls on the TV because there is no way to interpret a small data set given as you say there is no historical data. Apparently YouGov are doing one but the BBC for one are keeping it at arms length.
What they have done instead is model each count area by various demographics to rank them as to which area is most likely to vote in or out. They are then going to feed the early real results in to get a feel of which way it is going, but they admit it could be quite vague.

 

[jamin100]

God i hope we're out although I highly doubt we will be

I predict 55% in 45% out

 

[Markymark]

You don't have exit polls on referendums.

Yes there are. Just not the traditional ones funded by the main parties. They will also mostly be private eg hedge funds.

 

[Markymark]

I think the results will be much later than Scotland due to the higher count.

 

[DaveReading]

[QUOTE 4333477, member: 9609"]will anyone be staying up through the night listening to the results coming in ?[/QUOTE]

Whichever way the vote goes, it's going to affect most of us for the rest of our lives. I think in that case I can wait a few hours to find out - I like my sleep.

 

[Markymark]

[QUOTE 4333486, member: 9609"]will they not use more people to count?[/QUOTE]
Depends on the budget I guess

 

[TVC]

[QUOTE 4333486, member: 9609"]will they not use more people to count?[/QUOTE]
Once more with the Radio2 stuff. There are 399 counting areas each mostly by council area, the smallest Westminster with 7000 voters, the biggest Birmingham with 700,000. Largest geographically and most likely last to declare, Northern Scotland.

First results expected from either Newcastle or Sunderland at about 1am - they have some pointless race going on.

 

[Markymark]

I'm just going to extrapolate from my household which I think is fairly representative of the U.K.

100% In. 100% turnout. 2000% awesomeness.

 

[Pat "5mph"]

I can't even predict how I'm going to vote, let alone the rest or the country.

Sorry but that is terrible, you should have made up your mind by now.
As the result concerns me and I don't have a vote, can I please use yours?