Your EU result predictions

[Crackle]

What percentage of dogs have turned out and what percentage of dogs with beer have turned out. Mine didn't go, it was too hot and he doesn't have beer.

 

[Markymark]

Their only sources of reliable information are the polls (see above) and their punters - whose only source of reliable information is the polls (see above).

Bookies who stand to win/lose huge sums of money are conducting their own private polls including exit polls.

 

[srw]

Bookies who stand to win/lose huge sums of money are conducting their own private polls including exit polls.

(See above on the accuracy of polls!)

 

[CharlieB]

49% in / 51% out 76% turn out

Wot he said.

 

[Vapin' Joe]

I'm ignoring the opinion pollsters and going with the bookies. They tend to get it right...

To refer to one of my earlier posts, if the bookies are right then we are out. William Hill quote 2-1 in favour of leave by their punters. Forget the odds, they reflect the money being laid and the bigger bets are going on remain but they are dwarfed by the number of bets going on leave. Just like in the general election where the money went on a hung Parliament but the numbers went for a Tory majority.

 

[Markymark]

To refer to one of my earlier posts, if the bookies are right then we are out. William Hill quote 2-1 in favour of leave by their punters. Forget the odds, they reflect the money being laid and the bigger bets are going on remain but they are dwarfed by the number of bets going on leave. Just like in the general election where the money went on a hung Parliament but the numbers went for a Tory majority.

Erm ladbrokes 6/1 leave. It will be in overall volume and they're 84% sure we're staying currently.

 

[Vapin' Joe]

Erm ladbrokes 6/1 leave. It will be in overall volume and they're 84% sure we're staying currently.

No it won't be. Bookies set their odds to maximise their profits or at best limit their losses. If one hundred people bet £1 on outcome A and one person puts £1000 on B then B will have the shorter odds.

 

[jefmcg]

To refer to one of my earlier posts, if the bookies are right then we are out.

Where are you seeing that? I just google it. I can't see William Hill odds, but bet fair have leave at 10-1

 

[Markymark]

No it won't be. Bookies set their odds to maximise their profits or at best limit their losses. If one hundred people bet £1 on outcome A and one person puts £1000 on B then B will have the shorter odds.

The odds changed of leave from3/1 to 6/1 today which to me means more money is being placed in remain, no?

 

[Drago]

Patience gentlemen, we'll know by this time tomorrow, then life can return to normal.

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Whatever happens in this vote, about 50% of the UKs population are going to be pretty pissed off in the morning.

Don't worry, about 50% of the Scottish population felt, actually still feels, pretty pissed off at their referendum results.
No riot happened then, no riot will happen tomorrow imo.
Still, a political decision based on a very small majority is never good for a country.

 

[PaulB]

54% in 46% out. 71% turn out.

 

[sight-pin]

£1 e/w

 

[Vapin' Joe]

The odds changed of leave from3/1 to 6/1 today which to me means more money is being placed in remain, no?

More money is being placed on Remain as William Hill quoted (In both the Guardian and Independent yesterday). But more punters are betting on leave.

 

[Markymark]

More money is being placed on Remain as William Hill quoted (In both the Guardian and Independent yesterday). But more punters are betting on leave.

So, I have £1000 I wish to bet. If I bet on leave I win c£6000 if we leave. If we remain I win c£60. You think this is stacked on the fact they think we'll leave and want to give me £6000 instead of £60?