N0bodyOfTheGoat
Über Member
- Location
- Hampshire, UK
Lower rolling resistance tyres, more aero and more W/Kg up the climbs.
2026 TDF - Fastest average speed ever
- Thread starter Big John
- Start date
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I'm not sure we can put Jonas in that bracket tbh. He seems to be at a good level after his crash, it's just that Pogacar has gone up several levels in the same timeframe. Heck, I'm not sure we can really say that about Bernal either, if what he said about his power numbers being the best ever at the Giro this year were true. He seems to have come back well if that's correct. I don't really know what happened to Froome, but as was demonstrated with the stat about Sagan's PR winning time would have had him last by several minutes this year, peak Froome would have probably been not far off where Froome actually was in his final years. As I showed above, there has been a several percentage point increase in speed.
NorvernRob
Guru
- Location
- Sheffield
Saw Adam Blythe do a quick interview with Froome, who said the power he used to do for 10 minutes, they’re now doing for 40. Reckoned he’d probably make top 20 in the Tour
Saw Adam Blythe do a quick interview with Froome, who said the power he used to do for 10 minutes, they’re now doing for 40. Reckoned he’d probably make top 20 in the Tour
That delusion earned him a few mill in the last couple of years of his career. I don’t blame him.
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
I did an analysis of this last year. (In this thread if you want to look for it https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-clinic.303618/ )
I'm not saying there are no PEDs, I have no useful knowledge of that. But the increase in overall average speed doesn't constitute evidence for this. The whole pleloton, including the lanterne rouge has got a lot faster. So if it is driven by PEDs then they are all on it. That would mean that the omerta is stronger than ever. In these days of social media and phone videos, I'd have thought it would be weaker.
Stages are raced from the start these days. That forces the average up. They don't seem to have any dawdle days with the break given 10 minutes or thereabouts. The fastest stage ever, this year's stage 11 (50.91 km/h) was an example of this. That was a flat stage and the GC guys (the ones most often suspected) were sitting inside the peloton doing f-all.
All that doesn't mean we shouldn't be sceptical, or that we shouldn't look hard at Mauro Gianetti's murky past or anything like that. Just that average speed isn't a smoking gun.
I'm not saying there are no PEDs, I have no useful knowledge of that. But the increase in overall average speed doesn't constitute evidence for this. The whole pleloton, including the lanterne rouge has got a lot faster. So if it is driven by PEDs then they are all on it. That would mean that the omerta is stronger than ever. In these days of social media and phone videos, I'd have thought it would be weaker.
Stages are raced from the start these days. That forces the average up. They don't seem to have any dawdle days with the break given 10 minutes or thereabouts. The fastest stage ever, this year's stage 11 (50.91 km/h) was an example of this. That was a flat stage and the GC guys (the ones most often suspected) were sitting inside the peloton doing f-all.
All that doesn't mean we shouldn't be sceptical, or that we shouldn't look hard at Mauro Gianetti's murky past or anything like that. Just that average speed isn't a smoking gun.
Before Team Sky came along, cycling was a joke. Riders didn't train, they just went for rides and maybe did an effort on a climb. That's paraphrased from something Philippe Gilbert said maybe 12 years ago, without giving credit to Team Sky. Based on that, I can understand huge increases in speed compared to then. Today's 22 year old rider has probably been using a power metre and a turbo trainer since they were 10 and had the huge benefits that training during your teenage years brings.
I find the increase in speed by the same riders over the last 5 years unsettling though. Especially given that it happened immediately after a global pandemic with the world in lockdown.
I find the increase in speed by the same riders over the last 5 years unsettling though. Especially given that it happened immediately after a global pandemic with the world in lockdown.
Dorset Boy
Über Member
- Location
- North Dorset or a mountain
There have been massive advances in nutrition and keeping the body fuelled over the last 5 years.
Much more is understood about how to train better.
More is understood about how to recover.
The overall level of the peloton has improved from 10 years ago so they can drive the speeds for longer on 'transition' type stages.
It's now common for teams to take their own bedding and portable air-con units for those 2 star hotel nights.
They have mobile kitchens so no longer make do with whatever the hotel is providing and can plan and cook more ahead of time.
Then add in the equipment advances.
Much more is understood about how to train better.
More is understood about how to recover.
The overall level of the peloton has improved from 10 years ago so they can drive the speeds for longer on 'transition' type stages.
It's now common for teams to take their own bedding and portable air-con units for those 2 star hotel nights.
They have mobile kitchens so no longer make do with whatever the hotel is providing and can plan and cook more ahead of time.
Then add in the equipment advances.
That's the bit I struggle with. I fully expect science, equipment, and all that to have improved from the Pantani era to now. That's obvious. But if we look at the Sky era, when they were supposedly super scientific, the times were well down on the Pantani era. Now, in just a handful of years, not only have they rocketed past the Sky era but also are a lot faster than the Pantani era too. Dog Trousers would probably confirm, but the speeds had gone up a fair chunk in the 4 years of the first two Pogacar wins and the Vingegaard wins, but the leap in the last three years has been something else again.
I'm not sure there have been many leaps of that kind in elite sport outside of perhaps the special swimsuits in swimming or the arrival of EPO in cycling. Maybe the springy shoes in running, I don't know.
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
Also, last year I looked at winning speeds of the Mont Blanc ultra marathon. It looked like the winning speeds were zooming upwards as fast as, if not faster than, those in cycling. It would be interesting to do a wider comparison of other sports. Maybe I'll find time to do that sometime.
I read a piece a while ago by someone (Ross Tucker maybe?) about the "data generation" (maybe they called it the "Strava generation" anyway ...). Those who had been scouted, trained and grown up with everything measured and tracked for their whole lives. Possibly we are seeing the effects of that (as well as aerodynamics, nutrition, bla bla)
All the same, history teaches us to be sceptical, as does the presence of dodgy figures like Gianetti, so I'm keeping my options open. I have lots of doubts and suspicions but they don't add up to anything worth saying. In the meantime I'm just enjoying the spectacle.
I read a piece a while ago by someone (Ross Tucker maybe?) about the "data generation" (maybe they called it the "Strava generation" anyway ...). Those who had been scouted, trained and grown up with everything measured and tracked for their whole lives. Possibly we are seeing the effects of that (as well as aerodynamics, nutrition, bla bla)
All the same, history teaches us to be sceptical, as does the presence of dodgy figures like Gianetti, so I'm keeping my options open. I have lots of doubts and suspicions but they don't add up to anything worth saying. In the meantime I'm just enjoying the spectacle.
Very unscientific, and maybe someone else could look in proper detail, but I looked at Ganna's time trial performances. He's someone who has spanned the pre-Pogacar era and now. If the above was true, you'd think his TT times would have gotten 7% faster, as with overall times and climb times, yet they don't appear to have done so. I get that it's hard to compare as courses are always that bit different.
So, you might take from that that wider tires and all of the equipment side aren't really going to help an ultra marathon runner (although they may gain from the springy shoes?). Would that narrow it down to nutrition/training/drugs?
misforturob
Senior Member
That would line up with it mostly being about fueling. Fueling had never been an issue for a <1 hour TT as your body has ample glycogen stores for that duration of effort.
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
Maybe mostly but it can't be all about fuelling.
Fuelling will keep you going, stop you from bonking, but it won't improve your W/kg. Although it might enable you too maintain those Watts for longer.
misforturob
Senior Member
I mean that is the whole ball game isn't it?
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
Well, if you have the watts in the first place yes. But getting the ability maintain 7 W/kg (say) is a pretty big hurdle before you address the problem of maintaining 7 W/kg for longer.
It will get you to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez on a 200km stage in good nick but it won't be all that useful in getting you to the top in record time. You need a big engine, not an efficient fuel tank for that.
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