Coronavirus outbreak

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I feel strongly that we need to make people realise there are few certainties in this field. Some bets will be sound. Others are good bets but we still lose some. One thing we really really need is idiot journalists to stop demanding certainty on dates and shoot and some idiot politicians to stop giving them false certainty on some topics.
and yet you make a massive deal about Gov possibly missing targets on vaccine delivery. They have a plan - no outcome is ever certain, but better to work with a plan (even if it's badly thought-through) than with no fecking clue. And it would be very bizarre to keep the plan totally secret!
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
and yet you make a massive deal about Gov possibly missing targets on vaccine delivery.
A target which was announced in a speech, not under pressure from journalists, but once they have said they will do something, it's fair to see if they are actually doing it, especially if they say they still are, and to call out when they try to retcon the target into something easier.

They have a plan - no outcome is ever certain, but better to work with a plan (even if it's badly thought-through) than with no fecking clue. And it would be very bizarre to keep the plan totally secret!
That's a false dilemma: the two choices are not "promise a plan" and "no fecking clue". It would be possible to have a plan and even disclose the plan without portraying it as a certainty, but that's too subtle for this bunch.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
From your link, the PM said "By the middle of February, if things go well and with a fair wind in our sails, we expect to have offered the first vaccine dose to everyone in the four top priority groups identified by the JCVI. That means vaccinating all residents in a care home for older adults and their carers, everyone over the age of 70, all frontline health and social care workers, and everyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable."
A target which was announced in a speech, not under pressure from journalists, but once they have said they will do something, it's fair to see if they are actually doing it, especially if they say they still are, and to call out when they try to retcon the target into something easier.
Target announced in a speech by the UK's Prime Minister - tick (see link and text above - warning: stuck needle alert)
Fair to see if they're "doing it"? Leaving aside your terminology, I've sought to estimate whether the target will be met and share my maths with all.
IF they say they still are - tick (and on current progress "they are"). As at 3 Feb: 10.5M first doses give; Rate per day = 430kpd; days to do 10.
Excellent if aberrational use of 'retcon' btw. Exposed a welcome lacuna in my vocabulary.
 
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Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Also, preliminary results from a vitamin supplement questionnaire, indicate that garlic has no benefit whatsoever, but multivitamins and vitamin D did show some slightly increased resistance to CV-19 in women. No benefit for men.
Vitamin D is something the BMA has recommended all adults take October -March in the UK for quite a while now.
I hope everyone is taking their Vitamin D - I've been using these 4000IU (180): D3&K2.
5 Oct 20 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr
Vitamin D and covid-19: enough evidence to recommend supplements
Dear Editor,
There are now close to 30 or so studies demonstrating that having optimal blood levels of 25(OH)-vitamin D (75-150 nmol/L) reduces covid-19 risks: reduced risk of infection; reduced risk of severe disease; reduced risk of dying. Many researchers now regard the evidence as ‘overwhelming’. Despite this, there still will be those who say that we need ‘more research’, but in the meantime, there is little to be lost (vitamin D supplements are inexpensive and have low risk of toxicity) and a huge amount to gain by recommending a decent daily dose of vitamin D3 (say 1-2,000 IU for children and 4-5,000 IU for adults).
and two more persuasive studies showing very good correlation.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA

https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk
Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a prospective study in UK Biobank (29th January, 2021.
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance... The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
 

Julia9054

Guru
Location
Knaresborough
I hope everyone is taking their Vitamin D - I've been using these 4000IU (180): D3&K2.
5 Oct 20 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr
Vitamin D and covid-19: enough evidence to recommend supplements
Dear Editor,
There are now close to 30 or so studies demonstrating that having optimal blood levels of 25(OH)-vitamin D (75-150 nmol/L) reduces covid-19 risks: reduced risk of infection; reduced risk of severe disease; reduced risk of dying. Many researchers now regard the evidence as ‘overwhelming’. Despite this, there still will be those who say that we need ‘more research’, but in the meantime, there is little to be lost (vitamin D supplements are inexpensive and have low risk of toxicity) and a huge amount to gain by recommending a decent daily dose of vitamin D3 (say 1-2,000 IU for children and 4-5,000 IU for adults).
and two more persuasive studies showing very good correlation.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA

https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk
Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a prospective study in UK Biobank (29th January, 2021.
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance... The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition

Most northern hemisphere indoor worker drones are vitamin D deficient in winter as a matter of course.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Low median levels of Vitamin D in some BAME communities has been suggested as inversely correlated with levels of serious illness from C19 in members of those communities.
At 7p a pop (or half if you drop to every 2 days) I reckon that's a win/no lose 'gamble' worth taking (and for @Julia9054 's "northern hemisphere indoor worker drones".
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Low median levels of Vitamin D in some BAME communities has been suggested as inversely correlated with levels of serious illness from C19 in members of those communities.
At 7p a pop (or half if you drop to every 2 days) I reckon that's a win/no lose 'gamble' worth taking (and for @Julia9054 's "northern hemisphere indoor worker drones".
Though the Zoe study said that there was no apparent added protection for men, I still decided to start taking them. There simply was nothing to lose. I'm going to have to up my dosage though - mine are only 3000IU.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
I hope everyone is taking their Vitamin D - I've been using these 4000IU (180): D3&K2.
5 Oct 20 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr
Vitamin D and covid-19: enough evidence to recommend supplements
Dear Editor,
There are now close to 30 or so studies demonstrating that having optimal blood levels of 25(OH)-vitamin D (75-150 nmol/L) reduces covid-19 risks: reduced risk of infection; reduced risk of severe disease; reduced risk of dying. Many researchers now regard the evidence as ‘overwhelming’. Despite this, there still will be those who say that we need ‘more research’, but in the meantime, there is little to be lost (vitamin D supplements are inexpensive and have low risk of toxicity) and a huge amount to gain by recommending a decent daily dose of vitamin D3 (say 1-2,000 IU for children and 4-5,000 IU for adults).
and two more persuasive studies showing very good correlation.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA

https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk
Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a prospective study in UK Biobank (29th January, 2021.
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance... The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition


Shielding folks get free supplies of Vitamin D

 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Yes, but aiui they're only getting 400IU pills (cf the 4000IU which will make a difference). My son was taking those! I've supplied him (and his siblings) with a bottle of 2000IU ones.
 

slowmotion

Quite dreadful
Location
lost somewhere
Though the Zoe study said that there was no apparent added protection for men, I still decided to start taking them. There simply was nothing to lose. I'm going to have to up my dosage though - mine are only 3000IU.
I've read that a 4000IU daily dose shouldn't be exceeded. If you consistently take high levels of D3 you run the risk of getting brittle bones.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
I've read that a 4000IU daily dose shouldn't be exceeded. If you consistently take high levels of D3 you run the risk of getting brittle bones.

From the guidance to shielding folks: (my bold, a[art from heading)
Taking vitamin D safely
Please make sure you read and comply with the instructions set out on the product label.

Each ‘1-A-Day’ vitamin D supplement contains 10 micrograms (µg) of vitamin D. This is equivalent to 400 international units (IU) of vitamin D. This is the daily amount recommended for the general population by government for general health and in particular to protect bone and muscle health.

If your GP has recommended that you take a different amount of vitamin D, you should follow your GP’s advice.

Do not exceed the recommended dose (1 supplement per day containing 10 micrograms (µg) equivalent to 400 international units). This is a safe level of intake, designed to meet your nutritional needs. Taking more is not currently recommended.

For most people taking up to 100 micrograms (µg) equivalent to 4,000 international units) per day is considered safe. In a few people, taking too many vitamin D supplements over a long period of time can cause too much calcium to build up in the body (hypercalcaemia). This can weaken the bones and damage the kidneys and the heart. NHS.UK has more information about vitamin D, including advice on intakes.

While some medications may interact with high doses of vitamin D, there are no issues associated with the 10 microgram vitamin D supplement. They are intended to supplement the diet and should not be substituted for a varied diet.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Verging off topic
The UK 400IU a day recommendation is half of other nations' recommended amounts.
Like the non-availability of clinical trial evidence that the Oxford-AZ vaccine is efficacious for over -65s, there is no evidence that large amounts of vitamin D at the sort of level mentioned is likely to be harmful. Implicitly the NHS say this (from the NHS link you shared): "Do not take more than 100 micrograms (4,000 IU) of vitamin D a day as it could be harmful."
The ones I take have some K2 in there to moderate the calcification effect which has been shown in rats who can be poisoned with D3 (stratospheric concentrations) aiui.
A varied diet and no sunshine will result in low vitamin D levels There are genetic factors in play too.
Supplementation at a good level is a sensible, cheap option, particularly during the winter months - till Easter in the northern hemisphere. After that, get out on your bike or otherwise outdoors in shorts.
Correlation/causation Bradford_Hill_criteria
@slowmotion
https://www.easy-immune-health.com/vit-d-and-calcification-of-the-arteries-heart-disease.html
I thought this video was crammed full of decent 'stuff' persuasively concluding that robust (4000IU daily) supplementation is beneficial.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583
Optimisation of Vitamin D Status for EnhancedImmuno-protection Against Covid-19 (2020 Irish Medical Journal)
https://www.researchgate.net/public...r_Enhanced_Immuno-protection_Against_Covid-19
 
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vickster

Legendary Member
Year round, I take around 1300IU a day as supplementation (1000 in a 25ug Vit D tab as instructed by rheumatologist, 200 in a high dose omega 3 and 100 in a multivit) and my recent Vit D blood test was still borderline low. I’ll discuss next time I see the specialist, orthopod who ordered the blood test wasn’t concerned.
clearly I’ve seen no sunshine since autumn (normally I would have a sunshine holiday sometime between Nov - Feb)
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
There is no guilt, as a non EU member, to be felt from our approach to vaccination, compared to the leaden, confused approach of the EU.
Replying here as the other thread is locked and this is off topic there anyway.

I wasn't implying any need to feel guilty at the British approach. I think it was Gove who rightly said (!) there should be no vaccine nationalism, and the point of the EU doing the procuring was to avoid precisely this. Given the initial limited supply of vaccine, Britain would have received less under the EU procedure. The real losers though would have been the poorer countries of eastern Europe who don't have the purchasing power.

The problem with the EU is how it negotiated. Completed negotiations with Moderna, for example, at the end of August but didn't actually sign a contract until the beginning of December! What I still don't know is how much these delays resulted in slowing down the actual production of vaccine. It may not have been quite as bad as I first thought.

Vaccination is proceeding across Europe, but a more robust approach might have meant at a level achieved by the States, if comparisons have to be made.

It is highly ironic, and not well received amongst the population that the mRNA vaccine was discovered in Germany in Tübingen, developed by BioNTech in Mainz, and was the first to be licenced, yet in Mainz there is not enough vaccine.

If the EU had put as much money into researching a vaccine as the UK did, do you think it would have been developed sooner and by this stage most of Europe would have had the jab?
The founder of BioNTech was interviewed here over the weekend and stated that lack of money was not responsible for impeding development of the vaccines. Bringing about mass production very swiftly simply isn't possible due the complexity and need for rare expertise, and that is what I fear may have been made worse by the EU's strategy.

The situation of vaccinating at full capacity will, I hope, be achieved by the end of March, but the fact it will have taken a whole quarter to get there still makes me think some resignations are in order! After that the situation should improve dramatically, but that is partly due to German govt intervention to push up production.
 
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