Chromatic
Legendary Member
- Location
- Gloucestershire
Let's hope both are well.
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Let's hope both are well.
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
You're in control of your own fate though really aren't you?
If your neighbours suddenly start partying to all hours, you haven't got to go and I doubt Covid will blow through your window from next door.
If you feel unsafe going to the pub stop in.
If people you know are behaving 'irresponsible ' don't visit them or let them into your home.
It's pretty easy to protect yourself from the virus, do what you've been doing for the past year.
You say your in control but you can only control so much ! Prime example is a colleague and his family all isolating due to covid. Caught from some daft young lass at his daughters care home , who despite all the warnings , went partying ! I mean wtf !! So yes we are all in control to some extent but there are some right selfish @rseholes around.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Anyone remember the "Great Barrington Declaration"? The anti lockdown screed two of whose signatories were invited to brief Johnson ahead of the decision not to impose restrictions back in October?
Unsurprisingly, the libertarian think tank behind it turns out to be populated by anti vax nutjobs.
Whoda thunk
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/GYamey/status/1369811367146962944
Unsurprisingly, the libertarian think tank behind it turns out to be populated by anti vax nutjobs.
Whoda thunk
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/GYamey/status/1369811367146962944
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
News from around Europe:
Portugal releasing lockdown after about 2 months, borders remain closed - case rates also falling in UK and Spain;
Czechia case rate far higher than most, new variants blamed, causing worry in neighbours Poland and Austria that are also seeing increases — Italy is also seeing a slow increase, while Denmark and Norway seem to be increasing but still low;
France is seeing stubbornly flat case numbers amid scenes of crowds in Paris, with further restrictions expected on top of curfews and weekend lockdowns — Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden are also seeing case numbers near-flat;
This chart shows the last month of confirmed case numbers. Usual cautions about comparing countries applies, but each country's "direction of travel" should be pretty reliable unless there has been sudden changes in the testing rules:
Portugal releasing lockdown after about 2 months, borders remain closed - case rates also falling in UK and Spain;
Czechia case rate far higher than most, new variants blamed, causing worry in neighbours Poland and Austria that are also seeing increases — Italy is also seeing a slow increase, while Denmark and Norway seem to be increasing but still low;
France is seeing stubbornly flat case numbers amid scenes of crowds in Paris, with further restrictions expected on top of curfews and weekend lockdowns — Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden are also seeing case numbers near-flat;
This chart shows the last month of confirmed case numbers. Usual cautions about comparing countries applies, but each country's "direction of travel" should be pretty reliable unless there has been sudden changes in the testing rules:
johnblack
Über Member
- Location
- South Northamptonshire
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Yes, see ourworldindata.org but it's a few days behind, so doesn't yet cover this week. I think I've selected the same countries but apologies if I missed any:
Again, these aren't perfectly comparable between countries and, in most places, more tests will be carried out if there are more people feeling ill or more people testing positive (this last is called "surge testing" in the UK).
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
7-day rates, maybe, as reported by 'World in Data". But actually the UK case rate (ie per day) by date reported has ticked up these last 4 days, however, as @johnblack points out and you allow "unless there has been sudden changes in the testing": the reason/cause is testing . . . .
UK testing increased from about 750k pd (3-day average) to about 1480k pd with the huge numbers of LFTs taken as secondary schools have reopened this week. I suggest this is a rather more likely explanation for the doubling of testing (not "more people feeling ill or more people testing positive") - perhaps parents with adolescents at school are closer to this coalface.
Seems likely that that will have driven the upturn in reported cases. Huge portion of these asymptomatic infections have been discovered (whereas without the LFTs they wouldn't have been).
UK Government daily cases
| 11-03-2021 | 6,753 |
| 10-03-2021 | 5,926 |
| 09-03-2021 | 5,766 |
| 08-03-2021 | 4,712 |
| 07-03-2021 | 5,177 |
| 06-03-2021 | 6,040 |
| 05-03-2021 | 5,947 |
| 04-03-2021 | 6,573 |
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
My comments were international and explain some of the variations. It is not exhaustive, we don't have to limit ourselves to only one explanation, not even one per country, and the latest above misdirection is disappointing to see, whether unintended or not.
oldwheels
Legendary Member
- Location
- Isle of Mull
Even if we are a bit more cautious it would make no difference. As soon as restrictions are lifted by our neighbour all the tourist areas here will be flooded whether we like it or not.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Italy locks down on Monday until at least 6 April. Schools and non vital shops closed, people not allowed out in general in red zones (or anywhere over Easter), bars and restaurants takeaway only in orange zones. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/13/europe/italy-coronavirus-national-lockdown-intl/index.html
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Please read the link to the ONS survey I linked to.
Prevalence is the proportion of people who will test positive if sampled at random. [Edit: in London]
As of March 6th, it was estimated at 0.3% or one in 300 ish.
Two out of several hundred is spot on.
Link again:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...aviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12march2021
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
@Pale Rider
"What we don't know is how long someone who has had Covid is infectious, but to suggest only two Londoners out of several hundred will be Covid spreaders is nonsense."
Think it's reasonable to assume that if someone would test positive they are potential spreaders and if they would test negative they aren't. So the link to prevalence @rt has shared is relevant. Hey, if you used 'cumulative' (12 months!) positive tests for C19 in London and doubled it (to account for asymptomatic non-tested ) it'd be maybe one in 5.
"What we don't know is how long someone who has had Covid is infectious, but to suggest only two Londoners out of several hundred will be Covid spreaders is nonsense."
Think it's reasonable to assume that if someone would test positive they are potential spreaders and if they would test negative they aren't. So the link to prevalence @rt has shared is relevant. Hey, if you used 'cumulative' (12 months!) positive tests for C19 in London and doubled it (to account for asymptomatic non-tested ) it'd be maybe one in 5.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
@Adam4868 I did try. And I thought very politely too.
@Pale Rider is unequivocally entirely wrong on the stats too.
