Coronavirus outbreak

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
& there's these nutz:
The governors of Texas and Mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, announcements that came in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again
That's interesting isn't it, I do wonder if we'll see a big rise in cases in Texas. I'd expect so.
Thought I'd revisit Texas, 28 days on from "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?
Anyone see the impact of that on cases? No, me neither.
Texas cases (population 29M):
1617391538598.png

(Obviously the 31 Mar figure is yet to be updated.)
(And cases in Mississippi are half what they were on 4 Mar.)
 

CanucksTraveller

Macho Business Donkey Wrestler
Location
Hertfordshire
Thought I'd revisit Texas, 28 days on from "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?
Anyone see the impact of that on cases? No, me neither.
Texas cases (population 29M):
View attachment 581996
(Obviously the 31 Mar figure is yet to be updated.)
(And cases in Mississippi are half what they were on 4 Mar.)
Very interesting, thanks for revisiting it. Just to play devil's advocate, it would seem that cases haven't really declined any in Texas either, and their daily vaccination numbers are huge. So, might their infection rates have been heading sharply downwards by now had they not ditched the masks and allowed full occupancy of stores etc? The question is largely rhetorical, I'm just pondering really.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
it would seem that cases haven't really declined any in Texas
Since 4 March, cases have halved - I'd call that a decline.
'Only' 26% of Texans have had their first jab. This will have had limited effect on case rate. Though will have reduced death rate as they'll have vaccinated their vulnerable. For comparison, this %age is almost exactly the same as UK's JCVI Gps 1-4 which UK completed (first dose) by 14 Feb.
 

IaninSheffield

Veteran
Location
Sheffield, UK
Thought I'd revisit Texas, 28 days on from "lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity" on 4 March?
Anyone see the impact of that on cases? No, me neither.
Texas cases (population 29M):
View attachment 581996
(Obviously the 31 Mar figure is yet to be updated.)
(And cases in Mississippi are half what they were on 4 Mar.)
Could it be that the prevalence of B.1.1.7 isn't sufficiently high yet? (Low pop. density across the state, therefore lower transmission rate for any variant?)
In states where B.1.1.7 is high (Florida, California, Colorado, Michigan), the cases are level or rising.

And somewhat curiously, latest version of the above vis snapshot:
20210403_071112.jpg
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Could it be that the prevalence of B.1.1.7 isn't sufficiently high yet? (Low pop. density across the state, therefore lower transmission rate for any variant?) In states where B.1.1.7 is high (Florida, California, Colorado, Michigan), the cases are level or rising.
Could be, Ian. Looks like all the 31 Mar cases were reported added to the 1 Apr number. The slow takeover of B.1.1.7, in particular its higher transmissibility, will counter the beneficial effect of the increasing proportion vaccinated. (and see my comment below)
Regarding the VoC spread, I was impressed with this graph showing the proportion of variants in the USA over time, and that it's shared.

1617441444208.png

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-proportions.html
Percentages on the right hand table are for 27 Feb. In a fortnight, the percentage of B.1.1.7 VoC had doubled, so by mid April may be dominant (>50%).
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Things are looking better over the Channel.

Clearly past the inflection point and close to peak in most cases.

No sign of any change in the downward UK trend.



1 april cases.png
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Things are looking better over the Channel.
Clearly past the inflection point and close to peak in most cases.
No sign of any change in the downward UK trend.
View attachment 582126
I don't think any of the continental nations' curves have quite 'reached an inflection point', let alone passed it, except Belgium (of the ones you included). And it can't be the lockdown that's slowing the daily case count rate of increase in France, can it? The lockdown doesn't take effect till tonight (Saturday 3 Apr). I'd be delighted if the French cases peak asap and decline rapidly. The UK's daily case curve (gov.uk webpage not the WiD one) peaked on 1 Jan (specimen date), the lockdown started on 5 Jan and the daily cases had halved on 21 Jan (after 20 days, 18 days on WiD data).
The UK cases seem to level off from 6-24 March around 5600 per day (7-day average) - think some of that was massively increased testing when schools reopened, but we don't know). But since 23 Mar they've dropped over 25% in a week (to 30 Mar, so unaffected by Good Friday bank holiday reporting reductions). Might we assume there's been no adverse effect on case levels of allowing our children to get back into school and continue their education? Perhaps secondary school age adolescents will mix more during the Easter holidays and that'll increase case levels. I suspect we'll not see that effect.
 
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PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
I don't think any of the continental nations' curves have quite 'reached an inflection point', let alone passed it,
An inflection point, in graphical terms, is the point at which a curve changes from concave to convex.
In mathematical terms, the second derivative of the function (ie rate of change of the gradient of the line) is Zero

To my eye, each of the continental curves has passed that point and the number of cases, while still rising, is no longer near exponential.

The relevant date for each, is around 16 March, when the rate of increase begins to switch over. The absolute number of cases continues to rise rapidly, but it no longer looks out of control.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Meanwhile (normal weekend/bank holiday reporting failures admitting), only 10 deaths notified today. We'll catch up after Easter but it's still going in the right direction.
 
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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
The UK's daily case curve (gov.uk webpage not the WiD one) peaked on 1 Jan (specimen date), the lockdown started on 5 Jan and the daily cases had halved on 21 Jan (after 20 days, 18 days on WiD data).
Lockdown may have gone national from 5th but the southeastern half were pretty locked down from 19th and 26th.

That is the trouble with these simple analyses. Headlines say one thing but the detail may say another and actual behaviour may say a third. Like for Texas, where it is not clear what effect the legal changes had when, especially given the genital comparison contest between some cities and the state.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
florida morons like to brag about their "numbers". that's no consolation to their 40,000 dead "people" this year. their "numbers" would be even better, if they weren't morons.
Thank you for that balanced contribution. No amount of bragging or modesty (eg Vermont) is any consolation to the families of those who've died or to those who are still suffering. You don't know that other policies would have been better for Florida, whatever their intelligence quotient.
Fact Check: Deaths in Florida due to COVID-19 (as registered) show as 33+k to end March. This is quite a way short of 40k.
Average annual deaths in Florida is about 200k.
If you would prefer to look at excess deaths (since Mar 2020) then there's probably been over 40k in 13 months - but not all are COVID-19 directly.
 
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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
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