Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

Way off topic: Thought Musk was helping save the planet by making Tesla EVs.
Tesla's mission statement is " to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
Lithium a problem, but can't blame him/them for that, though.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Way off topic: Thought Musk was helping save the planet by making Tesla EVs.
Tesla's mission statement is " to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
Lithium a problem, but can't blame him/them for that, though.

There must be tons of lithium just wandering around in the ionosphere to be worth spaffing tons of fossil fuel getting up there....

He should have taken up green lithium farming.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.
Completely disconnected with the day the Government randomly (?) chose to allow final and irreversible relaxation of most of the domestic restrictions. Why have changes to the lockdown restrictions in Scotland had so little adverse effect?
On UK experience, we can expect UK hospital admissions to peak this week - maybe at 1200 a day (7-day average) (cf 4232 a day on previous peak (9 Jan)).

 

[classic33]

Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.
Completely disconnected with the day the Government randomly (?) chose to allow final and irreversible relaxation of most of the domestic restrictions. Why have changes to the lockdown restrictions in Scotland had so little adverse effect?
On UK experience, we can expect UK hospital admissions to peak this week - maybe at 1200 a day (7-day average) (cf 4232 a day on previous peak (9 Jan)).

Two local, to me, testing stations, were closed the week before. How many others were closed elsewhere?
Schools started finishing the week before.

How would fewer tests being done alter the figures. As for the peak, that is yet to come.*

*My opinion only.

 

[mjr]

Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.

I am quiet because I hope you are correct but you have called it early from my reading of the graphs.

What I am seeing in my borough, including councillors going to concerts in unventilated old buildings and defending that as risk-free, looks like a covid super spreading shoot show, which I struggle to believe the summer/UV effect will overcome. But I hope you are correct.

 

[mjr]

New outbreak of 80ish cases in a Lille nightclub. https://www.20minutes.fr/lille/3090383-20210724-lille-78-clients-boite-nuit-positifs-covid-19

This follows clusters of 44 and 68 cases announced Friday https://www.20minutes.fr/sante/3089...personnes-positives-apres-cluster-discotheque and 80 earlier in the week. https://www.20minutes.fr/bordeaux/3...soirees-discotheque-2000-personnes-contactees

Each outbreak has led to thousands of contacts isolating.

Still some way to go to match the Dutch 165 case nightclub outbreak. https://www.independent.ie/world-ne...lub-that-required-negative-test-40618307.html

Just as well England hasn't allowed indoor nightclu... Oh, wait... Still reckon it has definitely peaked?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul

TBH I hadn't noticed you did.

But seeing as you raise the issue now, one random "predicting" the peak isn't very interesting, and we can't be certain we have even peaked (though given the sheer size of the falls, it seems very likely to me).

The reality is that there is uncertainty, in terms of human behaviour, vaccine efficacy and the fundamentals of the delta virus which can affect the size and timing of the peak to a massive extent within relatively small changes in those parameters.

Anyone who looks at this and claims confidence in a specific, precise prediction is overconfident, in my view.

 

[aferris2]

Daughter tested positive after a night out with friends. Wife and I went for a PCR test one week later and have both just received a NEGATIVE result. We are both double jabbed, daughter single jabbed.
Can't believe that we wouldn't have tested negative without vaccination as we are all living in the same house.

 

[Bazzer]

Text message from my GP surgery this morning:
"Our practices and your local A&E are struggling with demand, please support us by considering self-management, talking to a pharmacist, or use 111 online or via the phone. Help the NHS to help you."

 

[classic33]

Text message from my GP surgery this morning:
"Our practices and your local A&E are struggling with demand, please support us by considering self-management, talking to a pharmacist, or use 111 online or via the phone. Help the NHS to help you."

Got a similarly worded message last week.


With regards the closure of testing stations, there's four(not two) closed locally.

What about the two new variants found in England within the last week. Lambda being one, which if we're using the Greek alphabet leaves Delta six behind.

 

[lazybloke]

Bit surprised how little reaction there's been on here (gone remarkeably quiet) and generally to my identifying that peak cases in England occurred (sticking neck out here) on 19 Jul.
Completely disconnected with the day the Government randomly (?) chose to allow final and irreversible relaxation of most of the domestic restrictions. Why have changes to the lockdown restrictions in Scotland had so little adverse effect?

Haven't been online much in recent days but had certainly noticed a reported drop in the headline rate of of positive tests.

It feels too good to be true so I fear that the numbers are actually just showing a drop in lateral flow tests now that 12 million pupils are on their summer break. I'd believe a drop in infection rates amongst children, but how big a reduction I'm not sure. Random household testing might be particularly useful to determine if there really has been a peak.

Regarding Scotland specifically, schools finished there a month ago, so a detailed review of stats on https://gov.scot might give an indication of what we can now expect in the rest of the UK.

 

[vickster]

Haven't been online much in recent days but had certainly noticed a reported drop in the headline rate of of positive tests.

It feels too good to be true so I fear that the numbers are actually just showing a drop in lateral flow tests now that 12 million pupils are on their summer break. I'd believe a drop in infection rates amongst children, but how big a reduction I'm not sure. Random household testing might be particularly useful to determine if there really has been a peak.

Fewer teenagers faking positive LFTs to skive off school?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Fewer teenagers faking positive LFTs to skive off school?

More workers avoiding LFTs and disabling the app in order to avoid having to self-isolate?

 

[Julia9054]

I guess the way to tell will be if hospital admissions continue to rise all summer whilst cases continue to fall.

 

[Rocky]

Once again, in English.

I wouldn’t bother reading it. It’s pure fantasy with no scientific basis.