Coronavirus outbreak

[classic33]

I wouldn’t bother reading it. It’s pure fantasy with no scientific basis.

It read like a piece from the Brothers Grimm. A translation might help.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It's a weird story, this corona story. One with alot extremes. I wonder what is gonna stop it.

I think I know this one! Is it "longwinded incoherent comments without any scientific basis"?

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Mod note:

Instead of comments about the language used by someone, whose first language is probably not English, why not tacke the content as posted - after all that's what a debate is supposed to be isn't it?

Edit: substituted the word 'facts' for 'content'.

 

[mjr]

Mod note:

Instead of comments about the language used by someone, whose first language is probably not English, why not tacke the facts as posted - after all that's what a debate is supposed to be isn't it?

What facts, please?

 

[SpokeyDokey]

What facts, please?

You probably know exactly what I mean in my post but let's be precise and I will edit & substitute 'facts' with 'content'.

Edit: done.

 

[Johnno260]

Doing nothing is worse than doing something.

In the UK the past few weeks it's shown that vaccination works, high number test positive but deaths are low, hospital admissions are high in areas but the death rates aren't spiking with the positive tests.

Using the over 50 as an example I think these highlight the importance of vaccination.

No vaccine ever offers 100% immunity if you see/hear people making that claim or using it as anti vax evidence then it's a red flag and question that persons credibility.

As for the claim mutations create issues, they can but the core of the virus remains the same, and the vaccine will still offer protection, this is also something that can be addressed with boosters example: the seasonal flu booster.

The only conspiracy in any of this is what people stand to gain from false information spreading, see the London rally's this weekend all the speakers had a go fund me or paypal links.

 

[mjr]

You probably know exactly what I mean in my post but let's be precise and I will edit & substitute 'facts' with 'content'.

Edit: done.

"scams" would be more accurate but at least the mod note is not taking sides now.

They are widely-refuted false claims. What more is there to say? Why are they allowed yet another airing on CC?

 

[Wobblers]

FTFY
Could be. It is probably wise to treat the leading edge data as a bit more provisional than normal. A peak this soon would be completely at odds with the modelling, so I fear you are right @Buck. Think we'll know before mid-August.
Today's cases reported came in another 10% down and the case doubling rate is now flat or into decay (ie halving rate). Bit surprised this doesn't seem to be reported.
Perhaps we can see the fall off from the footie aftermaths of increased virus transmission opportunity.
One would expect an increase in the effective R number with relaxation of most restrictions on 19 Jul and might expect that to show very soon, countered by the seriously hot weather (most of UK) effect.
A pessimistic interpretation would be that lag in the testing system is going up as a result of both rising cases and the rising number of isolation orders and that this is contributing to apparent decay.
Many more are gaining immunity by the nasal as opposed to intramuscular route: A measly 43k received their first jab whereas 73K (two times the positive test number (rule of thumb, based on ONS antibody survey)) were infected yesterday.

There is a remarkable correlation between the end of the Euros and drop in cases. Given incubation times (3-5 days for Delta), a fall a week after the final could be expected - and that's what we saw. I suspect the earlier falls seen in Scotland are due to their earlier exit from the Euros and the schools coming out at the end of June. This is a good thing.

It is not, however, cause to believe that the peak has already been crossed.

We must not ignore the characteristics of the Delta variant. It is much more infectious than Alpha, with an R0 of at least 6. The viral load of those infected with Delta is 1000 times higher than the original wild type strain. Doubtless this goes a long way to explaining its transmittability - which is significant in indoor situations. There is a documented case in Sydney where one single person at a party infected everyone else who wasn't infected. Indeed, Delta's high transmittability is the explanation as to why Australia has had - and still is having - so much difficulty in containing its current CV outbreak.

Given the ending of restrictions, and given Delta's high transmittability, I see no reason as to why cases will not rise - there is no mechanism to prevent this. Herd immunity requires a minimum 85% coverage through previous infection and/or vaccination. Currently, we're around 60-65%, [1] far short of the numbers required. I note that yesterday's daily infected figures showed a rise. Well, a single datum does not a trend make! - but the timing is right for a increase in infections as a result of the lifting of restrictions. I expect to see further increases. Nightclubs in particular are likely to be transmission hotspots, given they're notoriously crowded and inadequately ventilated. We've a very long way to go - even if vaccine escape variants don't appear.


[1] Assuming vaccination is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic illness ,and that asymptomatic infection in those vaccinated does not result in transmission.

 

[mjr]

First reports coming in of cases confirmed in people who were at the Latitude music festival last weekend. Accusations from a customer that "upon entry the organisers really weren't that strict about [the jab or negative test requirement]" and one local MP that "The constituent told me that while they were at Latitude they did not think proper safety protocols were being followed." https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/latitude-festival-goers-report-positive-covid-tests-8195046

Conversely, another local MP says "I don't predict a local spike which can be attributed to Latitude, as most festival goers stay on site" and Suffolk Public Health said no official "outbreak" had been declared at the county-level. So that's OK then?!?

 

[lane]

Hospitalizations running at 2% of confirmed cases. This is higher than hoped if I recall correctly when 1% was discussed. This will probably put the very upper limit that can be sustained at 200,000 cases a day before restrictions are re imposed. Clearly we are a long way from 200,000 at the moment let's hope we don't get there.

 

[lane]

First reports coming in of cases confirmed in people who were at the Latitude music festival last weekend. Accusations from a customer that "upon entry the organisers really weren't that strict about [the jab or negative test requirement]" and one local MP that "The constituent told me that while they were at Latitude they did not think proper safety protocols were being followed." https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/latitude-festival-goers-report-positive-covid-tests-8195046

Conversely, another local MP says "I don't predict a local spike which can be attributed to Latitude, as most festival goers stay on site" and Suffolk Public Health said no official "outbreak" had been declared at the county-level. So that's OK then?!?

I don't find any of that in the least surprising.

 

[DaveReading]

First reports coming in of cases confirmed in people who were at the Latitude music festival last weekend.

I wasn't aware that having listened to music rendered you immune from subsequent infection by Covid. Post hoc ergo propter hoc ?

 

[PK99]

A little while ago I wondered out loud whether the threshold for Covid hospitalization was now lower than earlier in the pandemic. Replies from medics suggested not: Patients on Covid wards are just a sick as last year.

Reports (telegraph today) suggest the position is more complex: Number in hospital with covid is not the same as number admitted for/because of Covid

##
One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients this week classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.
##

Early in the pandemic, it was widely reported that people were staying away for A&E and GPs with conditions that would have normally resulted in hospital admission.

It follows that since more people are now presenting with "other" conditions and being hospitalised and being tested there will be a greater proportion of asymptomatic &/or minor covid cases counted among the "covid hospitalisation"

It becomes even more complex when non-covid admissions are for conditions that might have been covid induced.

Goes to show that simply tracking raw/total numbers can be misleading.

Numbers are hard! Who knew?

 

[mjr]

Japan's government extends their state of emergency in time and area, insists no Olympic link but the chair of the Tokyo Medical Association warned yesterday that “People find it hard to think about self-restraint when we’re having this festival,” https://www.thejournal.ie/tokyo-emergency-covid-rates-5510080-Jul2021/

 

[matticus]

Japan's government extends their state of emergency in time and area, insists no Olympic link but the chair of the Tokyo Medical Association warned yesterday that “People find it hard to think about self-restraint when we’re having this festival,” https://www.thejournal.ie/tokyo-emergency-covid-rates-5510080-Jul2021/

Looks a bit like being their equivalent of the Euros. All very safe and controlled in principle, but ...