DaveReading
Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
- Location
- Reading, obvs
No, conclusion is that you can't reach a conclusion without taking a bunch of other factors into account, which you haven't.
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No, conclusion is that you can't reach a conclusion without taking a bunch of other factors into account, which you haven't.
vickster
Legendary Member
What country are you talking about?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
@silva May I suggest you review a few 100 pages of this thread to help you understand the various non linear and inversely non proportionate nature of the relationship between case rates and:
Even less simple than oiling chains.
- the proportion of the population vaccinated,
- levels of immunity through prior infection,
- differing effectiveness of the vaccine against various benchmarks (symptomatic illness, serious illness, worse),
- differing effectiveness of the vaccine against various variants (ancestral strain, Alpha, Delta),
- difference between just one or both doses,
- varying transmissibility of those variants and the effect of vaccination thereon,
- effect of NPIs,
- heterogeneous nature of population,
- seasonality effect.
Even less simple than oiling chains.
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Note that in graph below the green is for the Alpha variant with an R0 of 4 whereas the central estimate of Delta's R0 is 6 (same as the polio 'grey' band (middle).
Note that the immunity percentage achieved is proportion of population vaccinated TIMES effectiveness of vaccine eg 0.7 x 80%.
Note that population of UK is 67M of which 53M are over 18 (80%) and eligible for vaccination. If the vaccine uptake is (averaged over adult population) 90% by (say) end August, and of the unvaccinated a quarter have immunity from previous infection, progress towards HIT will sit at (roughly) 66%: we need 82% (central estimate). Implies enduring NPIs will be needed to keep Reff below 1 and cases continuing to drop, in the autumn. Fourth wave shows on several of the models.
By Cmglee - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=103529223
Note that the immunity percentage achieved is proportion of population vaccinated TIMES effectiveness of vaccine eg 0.7 x 80%.
Note that population of UK is 67M of which 53M are over 18 (80%) and eligible for vaccination. If the vaccine uptake is (averaged over adult population) 90% by (say) end August, and of the unvaccinated a quarter have immunity from previous infection, progress towards HIT will sit at (roughly) 66%: we need 82% (central estimate). Implies enduring NPIs will be needed to keep Reff below 1 and cases continuing to drop, in the autumn. Fourth wave shows on several of the models.
By Cmglee - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=103529223
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
I guess a Neerlando- or Germanophonic one, from "juli" there.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I think stats suggest that, in the future in UK, more people (vaccinated against COVID-19 and flu) will get seriously ill and die of flu than of COVID-19. But contemporary and post-pandemic behaviours may mean the incidence of symptomatic flu is much reduced.
What's the threshold between 'bad cold' and influenza?
Dave - that's an interesting assertion. Where does that come from? Don't you think everyone will get some form of flu, with some symptoms maybe mild (and not recognised as flu by individual), though not every year?
In terms of behaviour I think going into work with mild flu symptoms or worse is going to be discouraged by work places / employers, and/or their peers, if not intrinsic motivation.
DaveReading
Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
- Location
- Reading, obvs
I don't have any stats that I can quote, but there is a huge difference, both qualitative and quantitative, between flu and even the worst of colds.
Many people who think they have flu are simply suffering from a bad cold. Those who really have flu are usually left in no doubt.
As a sickly chap who, before all this, used to regularly get stricken with manflu, I wonder if we shall see the emergence of a new virulent strain of cold... perhaps called manvid?I don't have any stats that I can quote, but there is a huge difference, both qualitative and quantitative, between flu and even the worst of colds.
Many people who think they have flu are simply suffering from a bad cold. Those who really have flu are usually left in no doubt.
Your country, this forums country: the UK.
Julia9054
Guru
- Location
- Knaresborough
You are standing at the edge of a football field and you spot £20 blowing about in the middle. If you’ll go and get it, you’ve got a cold - if you won’t, it’s flu.
Chromatic
Legendary Member
- Location
- Gloucestershire
This is very similar to how a bloke I used to work with described what it was like when he had proper flu many years ago, he said something along the lines of that if there was a tenner dropped on the floor next to the bed he was in he would have left it rather than make the effort to get it.
Don't throw books and libraries to me, throw them to government and its experts.
I stated this:
"A mere 1.7% extra vaccinated -it doesn't look like that vaccination trend had any effect on infection trend.
Conclusion is that vaccination trend didn't effect infection trend."
It's one of the growing amount indications that vaccination programs don't reduce infection trends.
I see 2 possible reasons (quite obvious but apparently politicians and their experts decided to look elsewhere to NOT see them):
- vaccination programs of whole populations (not just the parts vulnerable to covid-19) "reward" the mutations that escape the vaccines best, causing the latter to become dominant much faster (which is what we now see).
- vaccinating entire populations takes time. Time for mutations to spread and become dominant.
The governments changed their plan from (peak1) > flattening the curve to crushing the curve. It didn't help. Peak 2 arrived. Then they continued their "measures" with the promise "until vaccines available".
These became available, yet they continued measurements to stop virus from spreading, alike they would be able to kill the last virus out there.
It all, once again, didn't work out.
They should have limited vaccinations to the vulnerable people and protect those, while letting the subsequent virus mutations infect and make immune the healthy population part. Then, later on, the vulnerable people would be able to return to a more normal life, due to the natural broad and longer lasting immunity to ALL mutations inbetween.
But no, governments and its experts refused.
ALL vaccines that have been applied so far, were developed based on the original Wuhan strain.
18 months later, so many new mutations since. It's ridiculous upto criminal. Because this way they predraw a major simultaneous vaccines breakthrough by the virus, the entire story restarted, with again high numbers of victums and overloaded hospitals.
Although, "overloaded" is not that true. It's just that they weren't used to working at 100% capacity - something that in the economy is the rule of the day. They're abit like luxe restaurants: they can give 10 people a very technical treatment, but 200 people they can't give a sandwich.
So one can now expect the worst: the vulnerable were vaccinated first, they should have stopped right there, they didn't. By the time their antibody levels dropped back to infectable and increasingly worsening covid-19, they will face mutations that their immune system acts on alike the very first time. Read: cytokine storms and a repeat of the beginning of the corona story.
The problem now is that politicians and experts don't like public seeing them fail big time.
So they will continue to take increasingly more extreme measures.
Be sure that at aboves breakthrough, they will again shut down companies and thus bring productions to a halt.
Causing another big crisis.Their latest reply was this:
In the end, that's what they want, a boom and a bust, now and then. Someone that wants to sell high needs a sucker to buy it high, and vice versa one that wants to buy cheap, needs a sucker willing to sell cheap.
How do make that sucker do so: make them panic. Make them think the worst is yet to come.
Israel is quickly becoming school example 1 of above.
Why: it was about the first and fastest in vaccinating.
Good results: the amount severe covid-19 cases dropped with a factor 10.
But the amount infections is now rising at a rate steeper than those of the past 2 waves.
And vaccines producers now talk about third booster shots. And more. It's just lol.
Although they finally started to think about updating their vaccines. Only question is, how fast will they be, how fast will next vaccinations of entire populations be, AND how fast will the virus mutate further?
The neverending story, haha.
Makes me think, checked, but no, Velosolo still didn't receive new deliveries.
I'm now waiting since more than a year, on chainrings. It was the reason that I replaced the chainring bolts with standard bolts and nuts: to flip more easily my chainring to wear out the other side of the teeth as to prevent sharkfin teeth.
I wish I had ordered 10 instead of 1 end 2019, but I wasn't sure about the bolts and the mount frame clearance since changed crankset and different spider / different chainline.
It wasn't the virus that kept the active population away from production, governments forced shutdowns, transport bans and employee quarantines did.
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Troops hit Sydney streets to help enforce its prolonged lockdown – https://www.thejournal.ie/troops-help-enforce-sydney-lockdown-5512811-Aug2021/
Their PM has set a target of 80% vaccination to end the rolling lockdowns. They currently have 14%. (The UK has about 73%.)
Their PM has set a target of 80% vaccination to end the rolling lockdowns. They currently have 14%. (The UK has about 73%.)
There we have it:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
Precisely for the reason I pointed out in my last post.
Remember how it started, back in 2020?
They hang a tasty root in front of the donkey, then walk to dictature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
Precisely for the reason I pointed out in my last post.
Remember how it started, back in 2020?
They hang a tasty root in front of the donkey, then walk to dictature.
classic33
Leg End Member
Talk of a third jab isn't new. I know two who have appointments for their third, who got the appointment earlier this year(previously mentioned on here) for October this year.
I thought it all started in a "wet market", in China in 2019.
Or a lab in America in 2017, depending on which you want to believe.
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