Coronavirus outbreak

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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
There we have it:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
Can you show us the phrase in that link which you are interpreting in that way, please? "Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period" seems a long way from that, plus https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3#Aff1 makes it look like none of the authors are government scientists: two are from Institute of Science and Technology Austria, one from the Bank of Spain and one from University of Geneva.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
The governments changed their plan from (peak1) > flattening the curve to crushing the curve. It didn't help. Peak 2 arrived. Then they continued their "measures" with the promise "until vaccines available".
Please can you link to any government speech containing such a promise?

[...] Although, "overloaded" is not that true. It's just that they weren't used to working at 100% capacity - something that in the economy is the rule of the day. They're abit like luxe restaurants: they can give 10 people a very technical treatment, but 200 people they can't give a sandwich.
I am sure that's not generally true. Firstly, if a business runs at 100% all the time, it will be upsetting a lot of regular customers with queues or refusals and probably won't survive in the long term. If some businesses run close to 100% service capacity all the time, then there's probably not enough time for workers to restock and do other routine tasks, service quality will fall off and again it will start to upset and lose customers.

Secondly, safety-critical businesses aim to hit 100% almost never. If a restaurant hits 100%, the next customer gets queued or turned away, what a shame, never mind, as long as it doesn't happen enough to hurt the reputation. If something like a railway signalbox hits 100%, the automated failsafes kick in and the signaller's company will probably be paying for delayed trains. But with hospital intensive care, possibly the next "customer" dies before they can reach treatment. So even if you can say that hitting 100% at peak is a rule, there are plenty of exceptions and hospitals would be one, even commercially.
 

stowie

Legendary Member
Well, this is quite something from the TV chap who does the nice Coast documentaries.



He certainly doesn't hold back on the tried and tested references to WWII.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Well, this is quite something from the TV chap who does the nice Coast documentaries.



He certainly doesn't hold back on the tried and tested references to WWII.


Perhaps cobblers are best advised to stick to thier last:

1627925813686.png


Ultracrepidarian
Definition:
one who is presumptuous and offers advice or opinions beyond one’s sphere of knowledge

The meaning of this word comes from a story in antiquity, in which the famed Greek painter Apelles one day heard a cobbler criticizing the way he had rendered a foot in a painting. Apelles then said to the shoemaker something very cutting and witty about how he shouldn’t presume to judge beyond his station. The exact remark has, unfortunately, been lost in time, but since the Latin phrase ultra crepidam means “beyond the sole,” we may imagine that Appeles used this, or something similar, in his rebuke. Hence, an ultracrepidarian is one who, as a shoemaker might, goes “beyond the sole,” and offers advice on matters they perhaps should leave alone.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
The governments scientists now refuse even a 100% vaccination as condition to abandon the freedom restrictions.
Precisely for the reason I pointed out in my last post.
As @mjr has said, you're making this up and suspect you haven't read the complete paper.
What was "the reason I pointed out in my last post" again, and what was it a reason for?
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
The ping app has nobbled crudely by changing the time limits, not the proximity formula. Now you won't be pinged if the other person was asymptomatic and they told the app of a positive test more than two days after your contact: https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/fewer-will-be-pinged-by-covid-app-8205190

They've still done nothing to reduce the number of "close contacts" that are through walls and similar. Earlier today, my phone received a diary appointment by bluetooth from another phone two rooms away, at the other end of the building I was in. People in other parts of the same building, or in the next building, would be far closer than that.
 

classic33

Leg End Member
The ping app has nobbled crudely by changing the time limits, not the proximity formula. Now you won't be pinged if the other person was asymptomatic and they told the app of a positive test more than two days after your contact: https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/fewer-will-be-pinged-by-covid-app-8205190

They've still done nothing to reduce the number of "close contacts" that are through walls and similar. Earlier today, my phone received a diary appointment by bluetooth from another phone two rooms away, at the other end of the building I was in. People in other parts of the same building, or in the next building, would be far closer than that.
Wonder how many others also received the diary appointment.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Can anyone offer any suggestions as to why the case rate is falling when the numbers vaccinated daily rate is very low: so it cannot be a 'more people are getting vaccinated' effect (40k first jabs a day, 168k second jabs a day). And we should be seeing the adverse effect of the 19 July restrictions relaxation (a fortnight ago) by now, increasing the cases, whereas they seem to be continuing to fall (since 19 Jul ironically).
Hospital admissions are pretty flat (I haven't graphed it) - we can expect them to decrease, but slowly.
Clearly the high transmission levels among under 40 men until England was penalty shot out was a significant contribution to the 'exponential' rise (evidence: the gradual rise in the ratio of male:total cases then sudden collapse after the semi-final). This mirrored the effect in Scotland, albeit at the end of the group stage.
Has the end of term had that great a beneficial effect?
Is it the mid July heat wave?
Why doesn't this virus behave predictably?
 

markemark

Über Member
…it ripped through the younger people who on the whole didn’t have vaccines yet and now these newly recovered with natural immunity along side the vaccinated are getting closer to herd immunity. Maybe.
 

alicat

Legendary Member
Location
Staffs
Maybe fewer people are choosing to be tested. I think that the number of hospital admissions or ONS random tests will provide the most reliable indication of infection rates.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Can anyone offer any suggestions as to why the case rate is falling when the numbers vaccinated daily rate is very low: so it cannot be a 'more people are getting vaccinated' effect (40k first jabs a day, 168k second jabs a day). And we should be seeing the adverse effect of the 19 July restrictions relaxation (a fortnight ago) by now, increasing the cases, whereas they seem to be continuing to fall (since 19 Jul ironically).
Hospital admissions are pretty flat (I haven't graphed it) - we can expect them to decrease, but slowly.
Clearly the high transmission levels among under 40 men until England was penalty shot out was a significant contribution to the 'exponential' rise (evidence: the gradual rise in the ratio of male:total cases then sudden collapse after the semi-final). This mirrored the effect in Scotland, albeit at the end of the group stage.
Has the end of term had that great a beneficial effect?
Is it the mid July heat wave?
Why doesn't this virus behave predictably?
I posted possible causes a few days ago.

Testing is currently low - around half the level of a few months ago. Fewer tests - fewer positive results. Schools ''bubbles'' were maintaining a cycle of testing - a positive case resulted in teachers, classmates and families having tests. A positive case now will affect little else other than the immediate family.

There has been no update on symptoms. Delta presents differently to earlier variants so people will not necessarily recognise the illness.

There are reasons for not getting tested - people want to go on holiday, or to festivals, etc. Or they have a financial need to keep on working. Diagnosis evasion.
 
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