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Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Flick of the Elbow
Guru
- Location
- Edinburgh
That was dated in May and it doesn’t state the variant. The New England Journal of Medicine study reported by Reuters dates from late July and specifically refers to Delta. Given that most new infections in the UK are Delta this is highly relevant.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Accuracyish of this does depend on 'protection from what'. Here's the recent VEEP analysis:
Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel - consensus narrative, 16 July
The values presented reflect the consensus judgement of the Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel. The panel considers a wide range of domestic and international data. Because these figures reflect a consensus from a wider range of non-Public Health England (PHE) sources, they may differ from those in PHE's vaccine surveillance report.
The panel has previously agreed that, since there is no statistically significant evidence of differences in effectiveness between the Alpha and Delta variants for severe disease (hospitalisation), the Alpha estimates, for which confidence in the data is greater, should be assumed to apply to both variants. Where there is some evidence that effectiveness is different for symptomatic disease, separate estimates for Delta are provided in the table.
1) For overall infection (i.e. symptomatic and asymptomatic) the panel agreed, since there is as yet no direct evidence for Delta, and no evidence of relative protection compared with Alpha, that estimates should not be provided for Delta. It was mentioned that there may be new data from Scotland relevant to infection, but this has not yet been made available.
2) On transmission (i.e. the reduction in onward transmission by vaccinated but infected people) the panel agreed that, although there is as yet no direct evidence for the Delta variant, there is indirect evidence suggesting any transmission blocking may be substantially attenuated compared with the effect previously observed for Alpha. Therefore, estimates will not be provided for Delta.
The panel reached consensus on the following narrative summary:
3) Infection (symptomatic & asymptomatic). For the Alpha variant, protection against any infection is ~60% after one dose of the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines. After the second dose, this increases to ~80% for AstraZeneca and ~85% for Pfizer. These are relatively low confidence estimates. For the Delta variant, as yet there is no direct evidence on protection against overall infection, and no evidence of a difference in protection with respect to Alpha, so estimates are not provided.
4) Symptomatic disease. There is evidence that vaccine effectiveness is lower for the Delta variant than for Alpha. Against Alpha, protection is ~60% after a single dose of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccines, rising to ~80% after a second dose for AstraZeneca and 90% for Pfizer. For Delta, protection is assessed to be ~45% after one dose for AstraZeneca and ~55% for Pfizer. After the second dose this increases to ~70% for AstraZeneca and ~85% for Pfizer. For the Moderna vaccine, protection is ~70% after one dose. At
this stage, there is uncertainty around the point estimates for Delta and confidence is relatively low.
5) Severe disease (hospitalisation and mortality). At present, although point estimates vary for hospitalisation with the Alpha and Delta variants, there is substantial overlap between the confidence intervals, and there is no evidence to suggest a statistically significant difference between vaccine effectiveness against the two variants. Based on this, similar levels of protection against hospitalisation and death for both variants are assumed at this stage. For hospitalisation, with both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines, protection is ~80% after one
dose and ~95% after the second dose. There is currently a higher degree of confidence with the Pfizer estimates than with the AZ estimates.
6) Transmission. For the Alpha variant, there is ~40% reduction in onward transmission from vaccinated but infected people after one dose of AstraZeneca, and ~45% for Pfizer. There is no data for second doses. For Delta, there is currently no direct evidence, and therefore, estimates are not provided. However, there is indirect evidence to suggest any transmission blocking may be substantially lower than for Alpha, if at all.
classic33
Leg End Member
Two weeks time.
Mo1959
Legendary Member
- Location
- Perthshire,Scotland
Packed Ibrox stadium in Glasgow tonight. Be interesting to see if it makes any difference.
Milzy
Guru
146 deaths related exactly to Covid? How do you know? Just believe everything that’s in the governments news?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Incorrigible! Please would you share which 'all' figures you are talking about? Percentage rate of As and A*s? [to which my son has just contributed
]Shock news: Deaths reported on the website on Tuesday (ie reported on Monday) are much higher than deaths reported on Saturday and Sunday! Just to help you along, @kingrollo the Mondays were: 9 Aug, 2 Aug, 26 Jul and 19 Jul (all done without reference to a calendar!) Have a go and see if you can guess which days were Tuesdays.
These numbers are deaths with or of COVID (on certificate) [ @Milzy ]
No: mercifully the daily death rate is effectively 'flat' and relatively low. The fact there has not been a gentle peak is surprising: I expected one to show with a peak on 4 Aug, (+ or - 3 days) given that cases peaked on 17 Jul and there's characteristically 10 days to the admissions peak and another 10 to the sad deaths peak. The very different cohort of the young and older un-vaxxed makes the delay patterns which were consistent Mar 20 - May 21 no longer applicable. Edit: There's also noise caused because Scotland are operating 3 weeks ahead (dumped out of Euros, school holidays, relaxation dates).
Here's a graph of UK deaths. Blue line is the date of report; orange line is by date of death (as per death certificate).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
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vickster
Legendary Member
Isn’t it within 28 days of a positive test, not all Covid cause of death?
Mo1959
Legendary Member
- Location
- Perthshire,Scotland
If it’s anything like the GP service, or lack of here just now it wouldn't surprise me if it was people that hadn’t been able to get diagnosis and treatment for other things and got seriously ill and died
Speaking to a women yesterday who could barely put her foot to the ground as her hip was so sore and GP didn’t want to know and wanted her to see the physio. She knew herself it didn’t feel right and insisted on an x-ray which he reluctantly agreed to. Turns out her hip was broken and she was taken straight to Ninewells. How many more things like this are happening.
Normally I get my bowel screening kit within days of my birthday. It’s been over 3 months and nothing this year.
classic33
Leg End Member
I've a feeling that indirect deaths aren't amongst the figures, from the start.If it’s anything like the GP service, or lack of here just now it wouldn't surprise me if it was people that hadn’t been able to get diagnosis and treatment for other things and got seriously ill and died
Speaking to a women yesterday who could barely put her foot to the ground as her hip was so sore and GP didn’t want to know and wanted her to see the physio. She knew herself it didn’t feel right and insisted on an x-ray which he reluctantly agreed to. Turns out her hip was broken and she was taken straight to Ninewells. How many more things like this are happening.
Normally I get my bowel screening kit within days of my birthday. It’s been over 3 months and nothing this year.
People unable to access medical help for less serious conditions.
Let’s be clear that regardless of what the figures indicate, they are only an estimate (in that no one can see with 100% accuracy what the absolute impact of Covid has on every death) and as has been discussed will not be able to show the absolute figures. We even know that comparison to other countries is nigh on impossible due to differences in reporting methodology.
Likewise, we know that all areas of society and especially healthcare have been seriously affected and this will lead to many lost years with lower quality of life for those waiting for a procedure and earlier deaths for this who could not get timely treatment for physical and let’s not forget, mental health issues.
This is the real human cost to many of us, directly and indirectly, of this pandemic.
Likewise, we know that all areas of society and especially healthcare have been seriously affected and this will lead to many lost years with lower quality of life for those waiting for a procedure and earlier deaths for this who could not get timely treatment for physical and let’s not forget, mental health issues.
This is the real human cost to many of us, directly and indirectly, of this pandemic.
You’re spot on @classic33
There are now fewer Consultants, Nurses, GPs than pre-pandemic and demand is at an all time high. This isn’t going to be a quick fix.
There are now fewer Consultants, Nurses, GPs than pre-pandemic and demand is at an all time high. This isn’t going to be a quick fix.
