Coronavirus outbreak

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Craig the cyclist

Über Member
All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.

At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?

@Ajax Bay came back with a graph. I am happier to say quite simply..........no they aren't.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
All the numbers are beginning to rise again ....146 deaths today.

At what point will this start being headline news again. ......... September anyone ?

Always dangerous to focus on individual data points in a noisy data set:

10-08-2021146130,503
09-08-202137130,357
08-08-202139130,320
07-08-2021103130,281
06-08-202192130,178
05-08-202186130,086
04-08-2021119130,000
03-08-2021138129,881
02-08-202124129,743
01-08-202165129,719
31-07-202171129,654
30-07-202168129,583
29-07-202185129,515
28-07-202191129,430
27-07-2021131129,303
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Recent reports to the effect that the Delta variant being able to infect fully vaccinated people who are protected from serious illness, not infection, means that Herd Immunity can never be achieved, has serious implications for Australia and even more so New Zealand.

Put simply, they cannot open their borders untill their populations are fully vaccinated and infection being low they must be last in the vaccine queue behind countries with active disease.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Put simply, they cannot open their borders untill their populations are fully vaccinated and infection being low they must be last in the vaccine queue behind countries with active disease.
I think (hope!) their leaders always knew that that was a risk and factored it in.

Would they stay last in the queue if the outbreaks there continue to grow? And would you put them in front of or behind extra doses for fully-vaccinated people in countries like the UK?

The WHO has asked for the UK and others to delay extra doses for two months so the world's most vulnerable 10% can be vaccinated first. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-04...urges-wealthy-countries-to-delay-booster-jabs
 
The WHO has asked for the UK and others to delay extra doses for two months so the world's most vulnerable 10% can be vaccinated first. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-04...urges-wealthy-countries-to-delay-booster-jabs

I think that this is a perfectly civilised and acceptable idea where poorer countries are at a disadvantage in getting and administering vaccinations.

Australia and NZ are wealthy countries and any shortfall or backlog in vaccinations is their political/scientific choice, for which they factored in the risks, so they should pay as much as it costs to put right their own policy decision made out of choice not necessity.
 

vickster

Legendary Member
Make of this what you will: the PHE ''Active Cases'' figure is almost half that of the Zoe app ''Daily Cases.'' 23,510 (9/8) to 45,911 (11/8)
Are the Zoe cases backed up by positive test results as presumably PHE are?
Or self reported symptoms and an assumption it’s Covid (I don’t use it, so genuinely don’t know 🤷‍♀️)
Apparently symptoms in vaccinated folk are more akin to a cold/other virus than the ‘classic Covid symptoms’ (loss of taste/smell, cough etc)

Assume those are England Zoe data only?
 

Milzy

Guru
Well those are the official figures. And that's the highest death tally for a while using a consistent measurement technique.

Unless of course you believe that the figures are made up - which is a different discussion entirely.
Yeah I do believe they’re made up. Most of the media outlets are deep state ran.
Funny how it’s rising but now nobody gives a hoot all of a sudden. I thought most were vaccinated so how are they dying? People are always dying & the cause of deaths are not recorded properly.
 
Australia, at least, has a more-than-ample supply of A-Z BUT many, many people have been ,or still are, reluctant to have it.
It has all been very badly handled indeed.
It also certainly has the ability and resources to set up probably one of the most effective and equitable mass vaccination campaigns in the world - but seems not to have the will to do so.

I have friends there, from when I lived there, who have had A-Z and are/were more than happy to have A-Z but they tell me that because of the (earlier) success with border closures - and what they described as blatant scaremongering in the media - there has never been any real 'impetus' felt for, or applied to, a co-ordinated national vaccination campaign such as we and - eventually - most of the other 'western' nations enjoyed, even those which had a slow start such as Canada.
My friends and former colleagues from some of those communities have ensured their own parents and extended families get vaccinated - but without some overarching organisation, mass national vaccination as we saw it here is simply impossible.

Delta has really, badly, caught then on the wrong foot and there aren't yet (or weren't until very recently) even multi-lingual vaccination leaflets in the areas most in need of them, never mind priests, imams and other multi-cultural community leaders being actively encouraged and given information to talk to their congregations etc about vaccination. One of my friends - a radiologist - said it feels as if the national and federal governments are acting like roos or rabbits 'frozen in the headlights'.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Are the Zoe cases backed up by positive test results as presumably PHE are?
Or self reported symptoms and an assumption it’s Covid (I don’t use it, so genuinely don’t know 🤷‍♀️)
Apparently symptoms in vaccinated folk are more akin to a cold/other virus than the ‘classic Covid symptoms’ (loss of taste/smell, cough etc)

Assume those are England Zoe data only?
Actually, Zoe figures are UK wide but England, of course, makes up the great majority of the UK population.

They're self-reported symptoms but backed up with testing and antibody data. Additionally, they are including mild symptoms but their list of symptoms for the Delta variant are slightly different. The ''like a cold/flu'' symptoms do not just apply to vaccinated folk, they apply to the Delta variant as a whole. (Zoe seem pretty angry that the government/NHS has not updated the symptom list.)

The self-reporting aspect should not automatically lead to a suspicion that they're tapping into the UK's reserve of hypochondriacs. They recently found that Zoe contributors had a ''health bias,'' with higher than typical vaccination levels and higher PPE use, and who were reporting lower than normal infection rates. They've had to change their methodology to compensate for their dwindling figures compared with the general population. Of course, I have no idea what calculations they are using.
 

vickster

Legendary Member
Actually, Zoe figures are UK wide but England, of course, makes up the great majority of the UK population.

They're self-reported symptoms but backed up with testing and antibody data. Additionally, they are including mild symptoms but their list of symptoms for the Delta variant are slightly different. The ''like a cold/flu'' symptoms do not just apply to vaccinated folk, they apply to the Delta variant as a whole. (Zoe seem pretty angry that the government/NHS has not updated the symptom list.)

The self-reporting aspect should not automatically lead to a suspicion that they're tapping into the UK's reserve of hypochondriacs. They recently found that Zoe contributors had a ''health bias,'' with higher than typical vaccination levels and higher PPE use, and who were reporting lower than normal infection rates. They've had to change their methodology to compensate for their dwindling figures compared with the general population. Of course, I have no idea what calculations they are using.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of Zoe users with symptoms got tested and were negative? Or did all those symptomatic Zoe people quoted test positive?
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
It would be interesting to know what percentage of Zoe users with symptoms got tested and were negative? Or did all those symptomatic Zoe people quoted test positive?
It would but at least a reported negative would take them off the list. I've no idea how they deal with people reporting symptoms who do not report test results.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
I think that this is a perfectly civilised and acceptable idea where poorer countries are at a disadvantage in getting and administering vaccinations.

Australia and NZ are wealthy countries and any shortfall or backlog in vaccinations is their political/scientific choice, for which they factored in the risks, so they should pay as much as it costs to put right their own policy decision made out of choice not necessity.
I should probably note that A+NZ have both already exceeded that 10% fully-vaccinated target (currently roughly 18% in each) and over 30% have now had at least one dose, whereas the low-income countries only have 1.2% with 1+ dose. So hopefully the most at-risk there are now protected.

Hopefully we can all agree that donations to GAVI should start before third doses are dispensed.

So I'm intrigued as to where people would put A+NZ in the queue compared to third doses. Does cost really come into it? Is total world vaccine production yet more than is needed? If it is, should A+NZ have to match the price that others are paying for third doses if they want them ahead of those? When would it stop being justice and start being vindictive?
 
I should probably note that A+NZ have both already exceeded that 10% fully-vaccinated target (currently roughly 18% in each) and over 30% have now had at least one dose, whereas the low-income countries only have 1.2% with 1+ dose. So hopefully the most at-risk there are now protected.

Hopefully we can all agree that donations to GAVI should start before third doses are dispensed.

So I'm intrigued as to where people would put A+NZ in the queue compared to third doses. Does cost really come into it? Is total world vaccine production yet more than is needed? If it is, should A+NZ have to match the price that others are paying for third doses if they want them ahead of those? When would it stop being justice and start being vindictive?
As you said earlier they factored in the risks. Paying extra to get vaccines after others had got in first was one of those risks. If it costs them a lot of money they have to bear that cost.

Having said that, if it looks at all to be turning into a really large humanitarian disaster despite their best efforts then the rest of the wealthy, (vaccinated) World needs to help divert vaccines to them. Don't ask me what the tipping point should be for that to happen, that is what my taxes pay experts and politicians for.
 
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