Coronavirus outbreak

[SpokeyDokey]

And south of Beijing:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53216047

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

Australia and NZ are both countries with an overall low population density and often very long distances between population centres. Outside of a few big cities, most of the country is virtually empty! If you wanted to have a severe pandemic in either country, you would have to actively spread the disease.
Controlling the virus in both countries was relatively easy, and I agree neither will take that much of a hit from it.

I think you overstate the hysteria surrounding the virus. Much of it is largely media created anyway. Most people I know are simply not concerned about it at all, unless they themselves are in a high risk group with a likely bad outcome if they go down with a dose. The majority are simply fed up with the lockdown, fed up with things not being fully open as normal, and fed up with having to stand in silly queues when they go about their daily activity. When all this nonsense gets abandoned they will soon return to their normal social routines and spend their money in the economy, irrespective of whether there is still any virus around or not.

 

[mjr]

Australia and NZ are both countries with an overall low population density and often very long distances between population centres. Outside of a few big cities, most of the country is virtually empty!

They're not one country!

But even aside from that, they've done better in controlling the spread even in those population centres than the UK did, haven't they?

 

[Johnno260]

Some media coverage has been disgusting the only story I actively followed was Colonel Tom.

The idiots cramming the beaches are morons for a few reasons, I think it's too soon, the garbage they left behind is in-excusable regardless of the situation, if people think I'm being overly sensitive on this well my wife is on the front line.

Same reason I think opening bars is too soon, some people can't act responsible while sober, opening has positives but I can't see how people will act responsibly, the bars will be a war zone and in turn A&E will be full of idiots the following day..

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If you wanted to have a severe pandemic in either country, you would have to actively spread the disease

An interesting hypothesis.

Let's test it.

Here's the case data for a few countries, on a log scale.

Straight line = exponential growth, gradient of line = doubling time.

Here's the thing. The slopes early in the outbreak are the same. The virus spread at almost the same rate everywhere until controls were put in place. The data very clearly disprove your theory.

Controlling the virus in both countries was relatively easy, and I agree neither will take that much of a hit from it

More nonsense. It wasn't easy. They were, and are, just a lot more rigorous than we have been.

Like Greece. Vietnam. Germany. Cuba. Etc etc etc

 

[Mugshot]

Australia and NZ are both countries with an overall low population density and often very long distances between population centres. Outside of a few big cities, most of the country is virtually empty! If you wanted to have a severe pandemic in either country, you would have to actively spread the disease.
Controlling the virus in both countries was relatively easy, and I agree neither will take that much of a hit from it.

Population density Brazil - approx 62 per sq mile, population density New Zealand - 46 per sq mile. It's not so different.

New Zealand #202 in the world
Brazil #188 in the world

 

[vickster]

If it's true, why has Scotland fared better than England? Scotland has 30% of adults obese compared to 27% in England

What does that 30% relate to in absolute numbers vs. 27% in terms of Covis cases?. England population is 10x that of Scotland nearly

 

[Rezillo]

Most people I know are simply not concerned about it at all

Why does that not surprise me?

 

[tom73]

Mobile testing units to double still not even enough and why have we still not a walk in option as other counties have?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53213676
We still look to be on the number game and not on what you do with it route. As the number of tests carried out stopped being reported weeks ago we still no idea how effective it all is.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

Population density Brazil - approx 62 per sq mile, population density New Zealand - 46 per sq mile. It's not so different.

The nature of the population distribution is vastly different. Brazil has many millions of people living in slum shanty towns in addition to the permanent urban built environment. New Zealand doesn't have that situation. I wouldn't mind betting a high proportion of the coronavirus cases in Brazil are in the slums and the most densely populated parts of major cities. It's starting to really kick off in India now too, and I would suspect the city slums are where it is spreading the fastest.
First world countries have a higher proportion of office type jobs where the population can do things like homeworking to minimise contact. Countries further down the development pecking order can't do that to the same extent. There are a whole host of reasons why the impact of the virus has not been uniform.

 

[mjr]

The one to watch is Brazil, where the most useful picture of the real potency of the virus will emerge very soon, since there has been relatively little attempt to interfere with it's natural progression.

Except from testing vaccines there, you mean?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...to-be-first-to-test-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine-idUSKBN23W2FJ

But yes, until that kicks in, we can see the clusterfark unfold and be thankful that even Boris wasn't quite that bad.

 

[mjr]

Try that it any market in Italy (even pre-Covid) and you'll be given short shrift.

Ah but many real market traders have some pride in their work and if they sell shoot then they probably won't be selling much for long, whereas most of the UK buys from "super"markets staffed by low-wage workers with little control over which section of the shop they work in, let alone what they stock, while many of the chain buyers have long histories of sharp practices, from the Victorian-era chalk in the flour onwards.

 

[mjr]

If it's anything like everything else this clown's government does it'll be "We suggest you don't eat that teacake", "We strongly urge you to limit second helpings", "We advise you to chew your sausages more carefully"

...while continuing to stuff themselves full of cream cakes!

Also, while yes, it's victim-blaming, what is Boris saying about himself? I guess it's easier for him to blame his eating habits than his mania for shaking hands or his mismanagement of the crisis.

 

[srw]

First world countries have a higher proportion of office type jobs where the population can do things like homeworking to minimise contact. Countries further down the development pecking order can't do that to the same extent.

None of which really explains why the US has been so badly affected, or why China has had quite a good crisis so far.

I think you overstate the hysteria surrounding the virus. Much of it is largely media created anyway. Most people I know are simply not concerned about it at all, unless they themselves are in a high risk group with a likely bad outcome if they go down with a dose.

If you use "people I know" as a reference, it's not surprising they tend to agree with you. Here's some more reliable data.

 

[mjr]

Public toilets are shut around here.

According to news outlets it's the majority of the country.

There were closures in North Norfolk and Yarmouth Borough but then they realised the obvious consequences were worse and they reopened most of them. As far as I've heard and from what I've seen on my rides, they've not been closed in West Norfolk, Fenland or the Forestry England visitor centres except when some hosting buildings were closed early during lockdown.

I can't confirm that it's the majority but I see there are so many shoot councils that the government wrote to ask them all to stop being piss-poor yesterday https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-on-the-re-opening-of-public-toilets-and-tips - but it's typical of this wishy-washy damp-rag government that it's only "should" not "must" even for this pretty basic public service.