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So rates on the rise in some areas .
I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.
I've been in a plateau area for a while and wondered about how low can it go before a lot more people are vaccinated.
Unfortunately the number of areas with rises is quite a bit more now and includes rural areas, and rather puzzlingly enough parts of the south west which have generally vaccinated a lot more people. We shall have to see.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
As mentioned on Radio 4 earlier, what kind of nutter writes dates on roadmaps?I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Doesn't trust GPS, maybe?
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Data not dates, is it? I can't wait for midsummers datum
DCLane
Found in the Yorkshire hills ...
- Location
- Dewsbury, West Yorkshire
Big rise in cases around me this week - I'm wondering if half-term had anything to do with it? 
My 20yo is back in university workshops from 8th March - he needs to be as he's 3rd year on an engineering degree and they'll manage distance.
However my 16yo is due back at school from the 11th. He doesn't want to go, instead studying from home. And he is properly studying for his 4 A-levels plus doing a university access course at the same time.
My 20yo is back in university workshops from 8th March - he needs to be as he's 3rd year on an engineering degree and they'll manage distance.
However my 16yo is due back at school from the 11th. He doesn't want to go, instead studying from home. And he is properly studying for his 4 A-levels plus doing a university access course at the same time.
matticus
Guru
What a peculiar thing to be smiling about.So rates on the rise in some areas .
I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Probably. There was a big rise in fines for lockdown-busting handed out at the local seaside resort. https://www.lynnnews.co.uk/news/police-fine-39-for-weekend-lockdown-breaches-in-hunstanton-9158286/Big rise in cases around me this week - I'm wondering if half-term had anything to do with it?
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
So rates on the rise in some areas .
I guess, as promised, Boris will announce a slow down of his road map.
I think there are bound to be geographic fluctuations for some time yet.
AFAIK the areas where rates are rising are still subject to the increased testing interventions that were brought into play some weeks ago.
Re roadmap, I would think that case rate rises would have to be very rapid and widespread for it to be heavily amended.
We've already been told that the pandemic will continue for some time and that a UK-wide zero infection rate is not possible - may as well get used to these geographic variations; they are going to happen come what may,
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Of the 4 tests in the 'Indicative timetable for relaxing Covid-19 NPI restrictions' it seems likely that the first two are pretty assured. And the last: increased risk if there's a new Variant of Concern in domestic circulation - is unpredictable - more likely in countries which have a continued high case rate and not done well with vaccinations (no names, but plenty of pack drill).
Which leaves: "Infection rates [cases reported per day] do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS."
I reckon infection rates will rise in April but by Easter numbers in hospital will be less than 8000 and still falling. The cohort who get infected, despite continued restrictions, will be the unvaccinated and they are far less likely (than over 70s) to get so ill they need hospital. So the likely increase in cases will not "risk a surge in hospitalisations" still less "put unsustainable pressure on the NHS".
Edit: I think, therefore, it is unlikely that these 4 tests will not be satisfied at the various 'not before' dates shared by the Prime Minister. But I also think that if the data say otherwise, hard decisions will need to be made.
One of the key papers which influenced Government's plans was (I surmise) this (26 Jan) one from Warwick University:
Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: When can the UK relax about COVID-19?
But the timescale of the UK (and devolved) Government(s) plan(s) for gradual removal of restrictions has been informed by values for key parameters which are much better than the study's assumptions, specifically: speed of vaccination roll-out, the %age uptake of vaccines, and the effectiveness of the vaccines both to prevent hospitalisation and in extremis, death, and the extent to which they reduce transmission (and there're good data now on that) - so the green line is relevant.
NB The study takes no account of those unvaccinated who are resistant/immune following infection (~11 million under 50s in UK), which will combine with number immune through vaccination significantly and increasingly to reduce Rt. The study also takes no account of seasonal effects which will bear down on transmission from May onwards and hopefully see us through to the autumn (by which time 80+% will have been vaccinated).
The grey shows gradual removal of restrictions (starting in mid Feb, first graph quicker, second graph drawn out) and the green line shows infection transmission blocking effect of vaccine at 85% (yellow is @60%). Apart from schools, the plans for relaxing don't start till 29 March, so the second graph is more relevant. We can still expect more deaths next winter from C19, but small as a proportion of the average number of deaths per week (2015-19 normally ~9000 increasing to @13000 in January).
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Look East BBC TV news reporting another 160 fines for lockdown-busting issued to daytrippers to the Norfolk coast the weekend just gone.
Across the channel, SNCB were running extra trains to the coast, but they didn't have a Christmas folly so aren't in lockdown, only curfew.
Across the channel, SNCB were running extra trains to the coast, but they didn't have a Christmas folly so aren't in lockdown, only curfew.
AuroraSaab
Veteran
Said in our local paper that they were turning back cars at Formby beach who had come from as far as Manchester and Leeds. Who drives a hundred miles for a day out when the country is in lockdown? Bit of sunshine and people forget everything.
vickster
Legendary Member
Unthinking Idiots?
