rockyroller
Guru
- Location
- 20 miles northwest of Boston, MA
wonder if that's why Florida has been bragging
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rockyroller
Guru
- Location
- 20 miles northwest of Boston, MA
& there's these nutz
The governors of texas and mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, announcements that came in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again
The governors of texas and mississippi said they were lifting mandates & allowing businesses to operate at full capacity, announcements that came in the midst of health experts warning that the spread of more transmissible variants risks sending infection rates soaring once again
CanucksTraveller
Macho Business Donkey Wrestler
- Location
- Hertfordshire
That's interesting isn't it, I do wonder if we'll see a big rise in cases in Texas. I'd expect so.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
But they're at a low latitude, about 30°N.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
I've posted it before but the link is worth contrasting with Zoe's tentative survey results - https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk
The main conclusion here seems to be that Vitamin D supplements do confer a slight advantage but to women only.
Shielding folks are offered free supplies of VitD tablets and Consultant at St Georges recommended a higher dose than the free supply
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
We will take any slight advantages we can get, won't we?
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
vickster
Legendary Member
My ECV father has got his free supply...hopefully he's taking it 
Everyone should pretty much take Vit D anyhow for general health especially outside of summer (especially bones - v important for post-menopausal women or folks taking corticosteroids)
My rheumatologist has just doubled my dose as it was low on 1000IU in the Nov blood test (test has been redone)
(I also get a bit more from the daily Omega 3 and multi-vit and dietary sources presumably)
Everyone should pretty much take Vit D anyhow for general health especially outside of summer (especially bones - v important for post-menopausal women or folks taking corticosteroids)
My rheumatologist has just doubled my dose as it was low on 1000IU in the Nov blood test (test has been redone)
(I also get a bit more from the daily Omega 3 and multi-vit and dietary sources presumably)
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Thing is, the ECV dose being dished out is a paltry 400IU. Which will scarcely shift the needle and have, as they say, a 'sub-therapeutic' effect (if there is any beneficial effect). Like the 12 week gap 'bet', there is no downside to taking Vitamin D in a sensible daily quantity, but there's no 'evidence' of a clear causative link.
vickster
Legendary Member
Presumably it depends what your baseline Vit D level is as to whether it's sub therapeutic? I don't know why it's only 400IU, there's no cost difference vs. 1000IU when bought in quantity.
Mine is presumably low and seemingly I don't absorb it well (hence other blood tests being done, including for auto immune disease). I've been taking 1000IU+ every day for 4 years I think.
Mine is presumably low and seemingly I don't absorb it well (hence other blood tests being done, including for auto immune disease). I've been taking 1000IU+ every day for 4 years I think.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
The UK recommended 'winter' dose is 400IU. This has been shown(aiui) to maintain Vitamin D (derivatives) at level deemed to be adequate. This daily dose and the 'adequate' level are lower than many other countries. If Vitamin D reduces susceptibility to respiratory illness, a decent daily dose is required (or enough sunshine - half the length of time it takes to burn is suggested) - 4000IU for me.
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Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
1. We have been far focused on hospitalisations and deaths, to the exclusion of all else. This has had the effect of largely ignoring asymptomatic transmission, which has played a major role in the spread of the virus. Data from Israel shows that the vaccines do reduce the numbers of those with asymptomatic infections: a 70% reduction in infections were noted, but over 80% reduction in serious illness. In other words, vaccines reduce serious illness more than asymptomatic infection. This is important, as it means the virus can still spread largely unnoticed in a vaccinated population - and a 30% vulnerable population is quite sufficient for P1 to do just that.
2. In my opinion, no government is taking the probability of further mutations sufficiently seriously. The experience of Manaus serves as an excellent example against complacency. It experienced a very large first wave in which about half the population became infected. Yet this wasn't sufficient to prevent a equally large second wave thanks to a variant which is able to sidestep immune response. Manaus is a reasonable model to use in considering what the effect of P1 will have on a country which has managed to vaccinate most of its people.
Which brings us neatly to point 4. I predicted the probability of a 3rd/4th wave in the summer or autumn on the observation that P1 exists, and it's uniquely able to negate vaccines and natural immunity alike. It's perfectly able to replicate the experience of Manaus in the UK - or anywhere else for that matter. It's already more transmittable than B117: that alone suggests that it will outcompete B117 to become the dominant variant worldwide. Vaccination efforts will serve to enhance its competitive advantage. Without taking the measures \Australia have done, we'll find it very difficult to keep P1 out the UK.
3. This in many ways is the crux of the matter. It's best dealt with in a separate post.
Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
P1 arose in Mnaus, where there was a significant population (about half) who had antibodies against earlier variants. This is unlikely to be a coincidence. A variant which is able to escape the attentions of antibodies of previous infections obviously has an advantage in this environment. It's simply evolution in action. This process took five months.
Given that it took CV19 to evolve a degree of antigen escape in one region in only a matter of months, it is reasonable to expect this behaviour to be repeated in other parts of the world where vaccines are being rolled out. Remember that vaccination does not halt transmission (and hence mutation), merely slows it down. As noted above, data from Israel indicates even if you manage to vaccinate your entire population, 30% will still be vulnerable to infection (though happily far less likely to experience serious illness). More realistically, as you can't vaccinate everyone, the vulnerable population will be closer to 50%. It means there will be plenty of opportunities for the virus to mutate - and antigen escape will be selected for, as it'll confer significant advantages.
Far from being unlikely, further vaccine resistant variants are inevitable. The only question is: how long? Well, P1 evolved in only five months - that suggests we can expect to see new antigen escape variants in a matter of months. They are most likely to appear in large population centres where large numbers of people have been vaccinated or have been previously infected. The best tool to reduce the spread of any new variant will be to restrict international travel.
Given that it took CV19 to evolve a degree of antigen escape in one region in only a matter of months, it is reasonable to expect this behaviour to be repeated in other parts of the world where vaccines are being rolled out. Remember that vaccination does not halt transmission (and hence mutation), merely slows it down. As noted above, data from Israel indicates even if you manage to vaccinate your entire population, 30% will still be vulnerable to infection (though happily far less likely to experience serious illness). More realistically, as you can't vaccinate everyone, the vulnerable population will be closer to 50%. It means there will be plenty of opportunities for the virus to mutate - and antigen escape will be selected for, as it'll confer significant advantages.
Far from being unlikely, further vaccine resistant variants are inevitable. The only question is: how long? Well, P1 evolved in only five months - that suggests we can expect to see new antigen escape variants in a matter of months. They are most likely to appear in large population centres where large numbers of people have been vaccinated or have been previously infected. The best tool to reduce the spread of any new variant will be to restrict international travel.
