Does the Met office know anything?

[Fab Foodie]

yr.no

Works for us.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Each day is independent of the next surely? Wouldn't it be the case that on one day out of a 100 locations 5 would have rain?

Which 100 locations would you picks? North Pole…

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I think the 5% rain bit is only a generated figure

The weather models are probabilistic ones and the percentage comes from that. A generated number is far better than a made up one.

 

[Jameshow]

I think the super brains and super computers are in Devon? So even SE of England is starting to get inaccurate, must be terrible for you lot further away :-(

Not until I'm down there .. !!!🤣🤣🤣

 

[Jody]

That was a bit of a freak downpour though. Nipped in Aldi and it was dry, came out and the roads were flooded. Went to my parents who are only a few miles away and it was still dry

 

[tyred]

yr.no

Works for us.

That's what I use too and is the most accurate I've found. It's worrying when the Norwegians know more about what the weather is going to do than the local met Office...

 

[matticus]

Our Wednesday night pub-runs are about 40% Met Office scientists. We still get occasional bad weather.

Yes, but do they predict it correctly??

 

[Ian H]

Yes, but do they predict it correctly??

A short term prediction for a single location is a very different kettle of low-hanging fruit compared with more general forecasts - especially in a hilly area such as this, where you can have rain one side of a hill & not the other.

In other words, yes they do.

 

[Jameshow]

Weather too nice for my mate riding up into the dales whilst I have covid!

 

[matticus]

Ask them if we need regional Met Offices.
(I suggest starting in the Cotswolds ... )

 

[Alex321]

Each day is independent of the next surely? Wouldn't it be the case that on one day out of a 100 locations 5 would have rain?

I think the 5% rain bit is only a generated figure which doesn't mean much.

It means just what it says.

I've had rain on 5% days and sun with no rain on 75% days. I

Which will happen. On average, out of every 20 days where it is 5%, it will rain on one of them. Out of 20 days with a 75% prediction, it will be dry on 5 of them.

think forecasts are too focused on the south and then everything north of that I don't think you can trust the forecast. Perhaps the bit cities might be more accurate. But whatever the case plan for the worst hope for the best!

I don't think that is true at all.

Forecasts tend to me more accurate in flatter terrain, just because the weather is more predictable there. But I haven't seen any evidence otherwise of forecasts being more accurate either in the South, or in cities.

 

[newts]

All the extra brains in Devon keep the clouds higher🤣
With all of our undulating geography it must be difficult to forecast weather in the south west. I find that location based forecasts via the app are very good.

 

[Fab Foodie]

All the extra brains in Devon keep the clouds higher🤣
With all of our undulating geography it must be difficult to forecast weather in the south west. I find that location based forecasts via the app are very good.

I encountered 3000ft of upwardly undulating geography starting less than a mile from my house last weekend...fair made me puff I can say. No idea what the weather was doing.....

 

[Dadam]

Buy a barometer so you can tap it.

There’s nothing like tapping a barometer with a frown and pursed lips to give the impression of being a weather guru!

 

[newts]

I encountered 3000ft of upwardly undulating geography starting less than a mile from my house last weekend...fair made me puff I can say. No idea what the weather was doing.....

That elevation was just the hill at the end of your estate