Does the Met office know anything?

[Deleted member 26715]

I was looking at the weather yesterday with a view to going out today, 5mph winds, 10mph gusts coming from the South, less than 5% chance of rain, it looked a good day to be out. As it transpired I didn't get chance, but just sat down for a moment after finishing a task, we've had what seemed like 1" of rain in 15 minutes, gusts of wind I would estimate over 30mph, so bad there was minor flooding on the road as the drain tried to cope. It's now still raining quite heavily but the wind has dropped, but absolutely none of this on the Met Office website.

 

[Grant Fondo]

This countries weather must be hellishly difficult to forecast. Such odd localised effects that even the Met's supercomputer can't get its brain around.

 

[Brandane]

They've been spot on with our local forecast recently. But then it has been quite predictable. Wind, rain, more wind, more rain. Hasn't let up for weeks now. Need to be truly hardcore to go out on a bike in this. Cycling season all but over for me, probably until the clocks change back again!

 

[presta]

If they say 5% chance of rain, and it rains, they haven't been proved wrong.

But if you pick 100 days at random when the forecast says 5% chance of rain and it rains on more than 5 of them, then.....

 

[FishFright]

I was looking at the weather yesterday with a view to going out today, 5mph winds, 10mph gusts coming from the South, less than 5% chance of rain, it looked a good day to be out. As it transpired I didn't get chance, but just sat down for a moment after finishing a task, we've had what seemed like 1" of rain in 15 minutes, gusts of wind I would estimate over 30mph, so bad there was minor flooding on the road as the drain tried to cope. It's now still raining quite heavily but the wind has dropped, but absolutely none of this on the Met Office website.

Always check the rain radar on the Met Office website too .

 

[Slick]

They've been spot on with our local forecast recently. But then it has been quite predictable. Wind, rain, more wind, more rain. Hasn't let up for weeks now. Need to be truly hardcore to go out on a bike in this. Cycling season all but over for me, probably until the clocks change back again!

I did think about it this morning, as I haven't been out all week, until I noticed the wind and rain. I did see at least 1 hardy sole braving it, but not for me. Its calmed to a monsoon now, but I've sat too long today and can no longer be bothered.

 

[glasgowcyclist]

My wife scours the various forecast providers until she finds the one whose forecast she likes best. 🤷‍♂️

 

[DCBassman]

My wife scours the various forecast providers until she finds the one whose forecast she likes best. 🤷‍♂️

As good a way as any...

 

[Julia9054]

we've had what seemed like 1" of rain in 15 minutes, gusts of wind I would estimate over 30mph, so bad there was minor flooding on the road

Yep. Here too. With the addition of a spectacular thunderstorm
Except I was mid ride at the time. Ended up diving under a hedge for 10 minutes until the worst of it passed.
I have some marvellous Shimano waterproof boots which are great until the water runs in via the ankles. I now have a puddle in each one

 

[C R]

The forecast was spot on here, dry and sunny all day except for a huge downpour between 12:00 and 13:00, exactly as forecast.

 

[Time Waster]

If they say 5% chance of rain, and it rains, they haven't been proved wrong.

But if you pick 100 days at random when the forecast says 5% chance of rain and it rains on more than 5 of them, then.....

Each day is independent of the next surely? Wouldn't it be the case that on one day out of a 100 locations 5 would have rain?

I think the 5% rain bit is only a generated figure which doesn't mean much. I've had rain on 5% days and sun with no rain on 75% days. I think forecasts are too focused on the south and then everything north of that I don't think you can trust the forecast. Perhaps the bit cities might be more accurate. But whatever the case plan for the worst hope for the best!

 

[tyred]

Buy a barometer so you can tap it.

 

[matticus]

I think forecasts are too focused on the south and then everything north of that I don't think you can trust the forecast. Perhaps the bit cities might be more accurate. But whatever the case plan for the worst hope for the best!

I think the super brains and super computers are in Devon? So even SE of England is starting to get inaccurate, must be terrible for you lot further away :-(

 

[Ian H]

Our Wednesday night pub-runs are about 40% Met Office scientists. We still get occasional bad weather.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I think the super brains are in Devon?

We are now