How predictable are grand tours?

[No Ta Doctor]

I can tell you for a fact that nobody was selecting Vingegaard as winner for the 2022 Tour. I had a hard job even convincing anyone on BR he was a joint captain and genuine contender if Roglic fell off. Consensus was that he was only there to ride Roglic's spare bike around France for him because he was about the same size.

 

[MatthewDav15]

This popped up on PCS yesterday and I thought it was interesting.

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I'm not sure where the figures come from, I presume it's from a "pick the winner" comp on PCS.

I suspect the numbers reflect a fantasy cycling approach where being named in a team counts as being picked. But if that's the case ... poor old Tao. Absolutely nobody at all picked him in their 2020 Giro team, not even by mistake.

This would mean the numbers aren't as dramatic s they appear. A score of, say 76% for Jonas for the 2022 tour doesn't mean that 76% of people predicted he would win (that would have been very odd seeing as Pog had just won two on the bounce). I think it just means 76% had him in their team, which is less interesting.
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Anyway the 2016-2025 averages are: Vuelta - 76.3%, Tour - 80.3%, Giro 48.7% That makes the Giro the least predictable, which makes sense.

I think the Giro has always felt like the most unpredictable of the three Grand Tours. The Tour usually has a much smaller group of genuine contenders, while the Giro seems to produce more surprises thanks to crashes, weather, tactics, or unexpected breakthroughs. That's part of what makes it so enjoyable to watch.