Not a Christmas Night Ride to Bognor

[Flying Dodo]

Saturday's forecast has improved slightly, but it will depend on how much snow and ice we get this week.

That is the critical thing. There will be snow. Here on the edge of the Chilterns in Luton it's just started to come down, so by Tuesday morning, they're forecasting 10-15 cm. That'll then start to melt a bit during the day, and then there'll be some more snow by Thursday, which again will melt during the day. Night time temperatures will drop below freezing, and there's the problem. Out in the sticks there will be ice.

For instance, you're not aware of it at night, but the whole section through West Chiltington before Rackham and Amberley (called Stream Lane funnily enough) runs alongside a wide stream which regularly overflows the road. I've cycled along there and some of the road has been about 10 cm under water, and there are some sections before there, nearer to Horsham, where you get a lot of run off from the fields.

If it stays above freezing, then it's not an issue.

 

[StuAff]

I assume it's off then?

 

[dellzeqq]

snow falling here and falling heavily down in Sutton. Forecast is now for below zero temperatures for the next few days.

Here's the thing. XCWeather now has the thaw coming in at 3pm on Saturday morning, and it will be accompanied by rain. It might just clear the roads.

FD - what's your timetable for calling it?

 

[Shadow]

"section through West Chiltington before Rackham and Amberley (called Stream Lane funnily enough) runs alongside a wide stream which regularly overflows the road. I've cycled along there and some of the road has been about 10 cm under water"


Rode this section on sunday and stream was running below road level. But the lowest sectoin of road was very wet and mushy for about 20m. Went thru with caution (on roadie with 25's) and was ok. Rest of route thru Rackham, Amberley to Whiteways was fine.

 

[TimO]

Several of the weather websites (XCWeather, and yr.no for example) are showing quite ludicrous temperatures on Friday night / Saturday morning. On XCWeather at the moment, it has -11°C at Pease Pottage at midnight (which addmitedly is before we would get there). Those sort of temperature, if true, are verging on being quite dangerous. The chances of getting very very cold, ie hypothermia etc would not be insignificant. I suspect that the actuality may not be quite as bad, but anything close to it, with ice on the roads, headwinds etc would be enough to dissuade me from doing it.

I guess we just have to keep a close eye on the forecasts.

 

[dellzeqq]

I think -11 is not too out of the way. We've had -17 in Wales this last week, and in 1981/82 we had -20 at Woodham in Buckinghamshire and the water main froze two and a half feet underground for weeks. Fields that flooded were just covered with sheet ice. We had to start the tractor by burning newspapers under the fuel line to de-wax the diesel. We, the first Mrs DZ and I, moved our first kid in to the living room and all three of us slept on the floor together.

The A41 was kept open by ploughs and my three speed upright BSA bike came in to its own. About 20psi in the tyres and I was good to go to Waddesdon, three miles away, for shopping.

I've walked out in -33F, and the temperature that night went down to -40. It's amazing what you can do if you're dressed right. Having said that......anything much under zero and I'm staying at home on Friday. Adam will remember the Bracklesham ride....

 

[TimO]

What would worry me about -10°C weather, isn't so much the weather, but what if something goes wrong? A major mechanical, requiring a long walk to a railway station, and then possibly sitting on a seat outside, and unheated for several hours, waiting for the trains to start running would not be good.

With the correct clothes things should be all-right, but how many people in the UK have the correct close for cycling in -10°C conditions! I suspect that whilst I'd probably be able to stay warm enough whilst cycling, there's still a risk of getting quite damp from sweat, and then if you need to stop for some reason, you'll get very cold (far worse than similar problems on a FNRttC).

This morning cycling into a headwind, and having snow blown into my face, it was hard work to do a 12 mile commute. 70 miles with colder, and possibly windier conditions would not be particularly fun.

Edited because I forgot a bit!

 

[Wobblers]

Several of the weather websites (XCWeather, and yr.no for example) are showing quite ludicrous temperatures on Friday night / Saturday morning. On XCWeather at the moment, it has -11°C at Pease Pottage at midnight (which addmitedly is before we would get there). Those sort of temperature, if true, are verging on being quite dangerous. The chances of getting very very cold, ie hypothermia etc would not be insignificant. I suspect that the actuality may not be quite as bad, but anything close to it, with ice on the roads, headwinds etc would be enough to dissuade me from doing it.

I guess we just have to keep a close eye on the forecasts.

It's certainly got down to close to that in the more rural parts of the West Midlands over the last week. Once you're away from the urban heat island of cities and towns it certainly can get surprisingly cold. I've been out in -20 [sup]o[/sup]C in Glasgow in the bad winter of 1995: it wasn't actually too bad for walking around. Staying still for hours on end might be another matter, admittedly, but it would be sensible to pack extra layers for this very scenario. Merino base layers are a godsend in this sort of weather - they'll stay warm even when damp. Surely you've got enough room in that pannier of yours for extra clothes?

It's not the temperature that would worry me, it's the prospect of ice.

 

[TimO]

I've got plenty of room in my pannier for any clothes I need, but I'm not carrying everyone else's!

Limited amounts of ice don't worry me, I've got studded tyres.

 

[dellzeqq]

I'm not sure I've got the clearance for studded tyres....

Of course, Tim is right. We have to be sensible.

 

[zigzag]

are you guys still considering riding? if it's above 0 - fine, but if below 0 it's plain stupid unreasonably dangerous. any sharper manouvre is hazardous, especially turns on downhills. studded tyres may help a bit, but they are not a solution. the risks could be much greater than rewards on this ride, therefore i'm out

 

[Flying Dodo]

Right, enough dilly-dallying. I'm going to get all Catholic and pull out.

It's clear it's still going to be below freezing on Friday night/Saturday morning (although I reckon the -11 Tim mentioned must be the wind chill rather than the actual), and as I mentioned above, due to the snow melting during the day, there will be ice around, so it's just not worth it.

On my commute home tonight on the studded tyres, I could hear them go quieter as I ran over ice patches at the bottom of slopes joining the main road, so there's no way I'm doing 75 miles on 23 mm tyres when I know parts of the route are even more exposed than my commute.

So, definitely cancelled.

Next night time attempt will be Friday 17th December!

 

[StuAff]

I can't make the 17th- in for overtime the following morning- but if there's a rerun/yet another attempt in January, I would be interested...

 

[frank9755]

That seems the most sensible decision, given the way the weather has nosedived drastically since the other night's balmy run to Brighton.

Unfortunately I can't make 17th either, but will watch for other dates if that one falls away too.

 

[rich p]

Very wise. My cycling buddy had an off in the lanes north of Brighton on Satyrday morning on a patch of ice and broke his femur.
I have a rehab buddy now though!