Not a Christmas Night Ride to Bognor

[martint235]

37mph from the south will blow us back to London quick!!

However I'd say I'm now 90/10 not to make this. I'm in Havant for the day and common sense is saying that it would not be a good idea to attempt this after such a long day...

 

[Flying Dodo]

This morning I rode through the countryside on my commute into work, rumbling along on my ice tyres as they gripped their way through the icy patches on the slopes. You Londoners probably haven't seen ice on the roads so far this year, so count yourselves lucky.

There's no way I'm running this ride next Friday if (as seems likely) this weather remains as it is. I don't think it'll be windy but ice will be a no-no on road bikes. Not sure I want to do 75 miles on my heavy commuter bike.

However, we'll see, but I reckon we'll get a wodge of snow the middle of next week - I said all along, this ride wouldn't happen!

Assuming it's too bad weather, the next available date for me is Friday 17th December. Traditionally the Christmas week weather is overcast, mild and damp.

 

[TimO]

... Not sure I want to do 75 miles on my heavy commuter bike. ...

Yah wimp, I've been doing all the FNRttCs (and the DunRun, & Solstice WARTY) on my commuter (albeit not with studded tyres).

If the weather does an about turn, then I'll be up for this. In fact, I'd still be up for having a go if it was cold, and I had a chance to swap over to the studded tyres.

I'm not so sure I'd want to do it in the face (quite literally) of a howling gale however.

I guess we'll have to see what happens meteorologically-wise. I'll put Talisker on forecasting duty, and see if he can rival Simon's mog.

 

[dellzeqq]

XCWeather has now given up on the wind thing (although the middle of next week is frightening) but is now forecasting temperatures of minus 10.

 

[TimO]

Weather websites like XCWeather and Metcheck tend to use a US model which has a 75km resolution. That''s probably fine for the continental USA, but for the UK it's not detailed enough, so they tend to interpolate the data to get a "better" resolution. Of course, this is not a very accurate way of doing it, but they can't afford to run large super computer centres to do their own modelling. I think- 10°C is pretty unlikely, although it'll probably be cold enough that we won't want to do the ride!

 

[iLB]

it's a bit too far in the future to be super accurate, but as we're stuck in a Rossby wave trough for the foreseeable future it definately won't be warm- or anything like it...

the model prediction is 114 hours after the model was run, but they will probably turn out to be fairly accurate, I think the ride was doomed to failure when the word 'Not' was included in the title- implying it is 'Not' going to happen... on the plus side if it were rescheduled for the 17th then I might be able to make it

 

[dellzeqq]

I always knew the boy would come good!

 

[Flying Dodo]

A useful weather web site I use, courtesy of EU money, is the snappily titled ECMWF, which lets you play around with their future predications.

Currently, Saturday at 0000 hrs gives a stable ridge of high pressure. No closely packed isobars, hence not much wind, and it's be a light west/south-westerly. It'll be a clear night, hence still cold. As ILB says though, these sorts of things aren't particularly accurate, but it's interesting to run the sequence for closer days to the present, and then comparing with the BBC forecasts.

Once we get past 4th December, (on the assumption snow & ice has stopped play), I'll have to alter the title of this topic to be


Definitely a Christmas Night Ride to Bognor

 

[Wobblers]

Looks like I can't do this Friday (just as well I already had the excuse ready, eh?).

Assuming it's too bad weather, the next available date for me is Friday 17th December. Traditionally the Christmas week weather is overcast, mild and damp.

I'm free on the 17th, though.

 

[Tynan]

it's this Friday!

gawd, I've been out and about this weekend, on foot, and it's been unpleasantly cold, the thought of an overnight ride in this weather is rather alarming

is it cancelled then? (although of course I'm very brave and will go if i reallly have to)

 

[Flying Dodo]

it's this Friday!

gawd, I've been out and about this weekend, on foot, and it's been unpleasantly cold, the thought of an overnight ride in this weather is rather alarming

is it cancelled then? (although of course I'm very brave and will go if i reallly have to)

Not yet, although put it this way, at the moment, it'll only be for bikes with studs.

 

[dellzeqq]

weather forecast improving rapidly. XCWeather shows temperatures at +1 and up! Still showing terrifying headwinds, but there's time yet....

 

[redjedi]

Not yet, although put it this way, at the moment, it'll only be for bikes with studs.

I thought we were all studs anyway

Saturday's forecast has improved slightly, but it will depend on how much snow and ice we get this week.

 

[TimO]

Currently quite mild, or very mild depending on whether you believe XCWeather or yr.no. Unfortunately a certain amount of rain appears to be attempting to make an appearance as well.

 

[Tynan]

how quickly a forecast of 1 degree is mild

how much rain is 'a certain amount'?

'fresh breeze'