Thanks for all the replies so far.
I am certain that it's from rubbing on something, but I don't know exactly what - it was fine near Inverness, where it put it on the back of the car as the last bike on a 4 bike rack and drove back to Yorkshire, unloaded the bikes and went to bed. I rode it to work the next morning and it spent the day in the corner of my office (I only get to keep it in the office when I'm the only one here, so I know nothing happened at work) On turning it around to come home I noticed the damage - so I've concluded that it was rubbing on some part of the next bike on the rack for some proportion on the 450 mile or so return from Schotland.
I'm pretty sure some carbon has gone - it'd be extremely unlikely to just take the paint off, surely? If I rub my thumb on it I get a bit of black dust, but then it could just be mucky. The 'step' down to the damage doesn't seem very much thicker than the paint, though, and my guess was that forks are built with a fair degree of tolerance in them.
The reason I asked is because, as has been pointed out, fork failure is generally pretty catastrophic because you lose steering, most of the braking, support and balance all at the same time. That is pretty grim pootling along a quiet back road minding your own business, but doesn't bear thinking about when you're commuting alongside buses and lorries.
I rode it again this morning.