So what time goal do i set myslef for Manchester to Blackpool 2013?

[Shanksy]

Hi all

I am just looking for a bit of advice if anybody can...

At the beginning of this year I was a heavy overweight lazy sod TBH. I weighed in at 17st 10lbs albeit I am a very large build and have done lots of weightlifting on and off over the past 20years (38yr old now).

I decided I should get fit this year and loose the fat for a change and so:-

I started riding in March this year with a newly bought road bike, initially my intention was to be able to make it on the Manchester to Blackpool ride this July. I actually managed that ride 3 weeks after getting my bike so I know I can make the distance now (took me about 4:15).

My question is and I realize it may be awkward/impossible to answer accurately...

What time do I set myself for the Manchester to Blackpool ride this coming July? I want to set a goal that is hard but achievable...just!

I have a cousin that did it in 3.5hrs though that was riding in a peloton and he is a triathlete of several years so I am guessing he is fairly fit. I'd really love to think I could get close to that time but I really don't know if that is simply dreaming. My weight has dropped to nearly 17stone since I have been riding so that can only help.

I have included my training records below to give you an idea of my level, nearly all of my training is done around Littleborough/Bacup/Burnley and therefore we are always going over hills which makes it difficult to judge how I would fair on a flatter run which I believe M to B is.

From now to the ride I intend to up my training, I should have time for
25 miles every morning - early
25-30 miles 2/3 times during the week in the evening
1 ride either sat or sun up to 4hrs

What do you think I should set as a goal? I fully understand everyone is different etc just felt like posting this up whilst I had 5 minutes to see what people thought (ps the 42 miler on 26th May isn't too indicative as this was the Manchester to Liverpool which I "towed" my 5.5stone son on one of those single wheel attached frames on the back of my mountain bike.

 

[T.M.H.N.E.T]

How far is Manchester to Blackpool?

 

[fossyant]

13-15 mph average then. Target 4 hours or under. It's not a race.

 

[SquareDaff]

It depends on the route too - did the night ride last year which was about 52 miles and completed it in 2hours and 40 mins. From what I remember the first 15 miles or so has a slight uphill gradient - then there's a steep descent and the rest is pretty much flat. Most people started to come in between the 3:30 and 4 hour mark.

Personally in your shoes I'd go down the average speed route. Find yours over one of your longer rides, then add 0.5 mph for improvement and another 1mph for drafting! Divide your distance by that average to get your time!

Sure others will have other ideas though!!!

 

[Ningishzidda]

Try to get it finished on the same day as it starts. The finishing food and freebies will have packed away and gone if you arrive the next day.

 

[Rob3rt]

Maybe it would be better if you provided moving average rather than just average speeds (which I assume you have supplied) because there appears to be poor consistency in the speed values. One day averaging ~17 mph the next ~12mph etc, unless you really do have a highly variable speed, I suspect this inconsistency is due to external factors.

One thing for sure, your triathlete cousin is probably not as fit as you give him credit for, if the route is indeed 52 miles as squaredaff proposes, it took him 3.5 hours, which is an average speed of <15mph. Plus he was in a group as you say, so riding solo, he is probably barely any quicker than you by the sounds of it! You should be able to match his time.

 

[ColinJ]

The one piece of advice that I would give if you are going to try and do it quickly is to set off as early as possible!

I only did the M-B once and set off late and was overtaking slower riders the whole way and it was a nightmare. Many thousands of people take part and it was very obvious that a lot of them didn't have a clue what they were doing - I saw countless examples of random changes of speed and direction, including a few riders suddenly braking to a halt in the middle of the road to eat, take a drink or answer the phone!

Drivers were getting angry with red light jumping and 4-abreast riding, and retaliating with reckless overtaking and braking.

Set off early!

 

[Sittingduck]

Whatever 14mph works out at...

 

[Shanksy]

Hey everyone thanks for the replies do quickly
I should have given more detail, the ride is apparently 62miles, so my cousin taking 3.5hrs averaged 17.4mph (least over 60 miles he would have done)

Squaredaff:-
Thanks for that, your right as I am aware its probably slightly uphill to begin with, maybe 20miles and then fairly flat. 0.5mph for improvement sounds low to me though I really don't know yet what's possible in what time.

Ningish
Yes I think ill manage to finish in the day if there is burger bars at the finish!

Rob3rt
Good point on the averages, your right I think it is simply averages and so includes all the downhills rather than pedaling averages, ill have to have a look at my computer data and see if it can be interrogated, if it can then my pedaling average would be a god start as you say with some allowance for improvement.

I was mis-leading a little, when my cousin did the run he said it was 60miles, taking 3.5hrs so 17.1mph average (in a peleton) so with your logic knock 1mph for going solo = 16.1mph....hhhmm maybe I am not that far off at all.

I currently ride with a pal who is 10 years older though has been riding for 16mths, he's a pretty active guy having done several marathons, lots of swimming, judo, club level squash etc etc. when I started there was no way I could keep up, now he cant loose me and in certain stretches i.e. on the flats or slight inclines where you are in top gear I can loose him, I seem to be better at higher gears/power than getting up the hills, fairly obvious as im 17stone!

I think my best bet is to do the ride or something very similar and track my average actual pedaling speed, then make some allowance for improvement (maybe 0.5mph ??) and calculate my goal from there

 

[Shanksy]

ColinJ

Agreed and I have heard the same advice, I plan on setting off nice and early, perhaps around 7:30 ish - do you think that's early enough?

I fully understand its not a race at all, it happens that I have a bet on with my brother that I can beat him during the ride, in fact I actually said if he could beat me i'd give him £500 ( ok I was drunk lol). I have ridden with him and I think my money is safe, I am more interested in a time goal for myself now and I am really really keen to beat my triathlete cousin....though that may be asking too much of myself..

 

[ColinJ]

ColinJ

Agreed and I have heard the same advice, I plan on setting off nice and early, perhaps around 7:30 ish - do you think that's early enough?

I rode to the start from Hebden Bridge and didn't get there until about 09:00 which was definitely not a time that I would start at again because I was one of the last to set off.

I'm not sure what the earliest time is, but 07:30 sounds more like it.

(I rode back via Longridge after the event and had completely conked out by the time I got there. It took an ice cream at Whalley to revive me enough to be able to limp home via Burnley and Todmorden.)

 

[Shanksy]

Earliest time possible it is then I reckon. I was thinking about riding back as well but guessed that id be totally spent after getting there so the return journey would just be too long as well as little use training wise..

By the way we went up that hill at the lights just before hebden the other day (hang on ill look up the street name) ah that's it Hepenstall Road - Jeez that's a fair steep son of a gun! especially with the cobbles at the top!

Out of interest what gear would a really good rider use up that sort of hill? for me I am still a first gear man/maybe second on that particular hill, I have managed Blackstone Edge from Littleborough in 5th, remember I am pulling a lot of weight, least that's my excuse!

 

[Rob3rt]

Good point on the averages, your right I think it is simply averages and so includes all the downhills rather than pedaling averages, ill have to have a look at my computer data and see if it can be interrogated, if it can then my pedaling average would be a god start as you say with some allowance for improvement.

I was mis-leading a little, when my cousin did the run he said it was 60miles, taking 3.5hrs so 17.1mph average (in a peleton) so with your logic knock 1mph for going solo = 16.1mph....hhhmm maybe I am not that far off at all.

I currently ride with a pal who is 10 years older though has been riding for 16mths, he's a pretty active guy having done several marathons, lots of swimming, judo, club level squash etc etc. when I started there was no way I could keep up, now he cant loose me and in certain stretches i.e. on the flats or slight inclines where you are in top gear I can loose him, I seem to be better at higher gears/power than getting up the hills, fairly obvious as im 17stone!

I think my best bet is to do the ride or something very similar and track my average actual pedaling speed, then make some allowance for improvement (maybe 0.5mph ??) and calculate my goal from there

Moving average is just the average speed, for all the time spent moving, it will include everything when you are moving, even if you freewheel, it simply stop the timer when you stop, i.e. it will omit the time spent standing at traffic lights, taking a bio-break etc. What this does is eliminates (to a degree) the impact of hitting lots of traffic lights, vs getting a clean run. Making the data more comparable day to day.

Forget this "pedalling average" you have concocted

Sounds like your cousin is a couple of mph faster than I thought (as I said I was just basing it off the distance value Squaredaff posted), but he is still hardly rapid and you don't sound like you are that far off his pace, which is a credit to you in some ways, if he has been active and training for some time!

 

[Shanksy]

Rob3rt
Oh yes of course it is, I wasn't really thinking before (in the middle of some work so my minds on that), its an average of whenever I am moving, free-wheeling or not - got it now lol

At a rough guess yes he is around 2mph faster on average accounting for 1mph he gains for running in a peloton. My training pal keeps saying I have done well in a short time especially considering I was an in-active smoker beforehand, I just think he is being nice!

Hhmm so 2mph increase is whats required (maybe 3 cause id love to match him alone whilst he is in a peloton)

I have 7 weeks to up my average by the 2or3 mph - gotta be possible?

 

[ColinJ]

By the way we went up that hill at the lights just before hebden the other day (hang on ill look up the street name) ah that's it Hepenstall Road - Jeez that's a fair steep son of a gun! especially with the cobbles at the top!

If you want a real bastard climb, (heading east from Todmorden) take the left turn before the Heptonstall Road - Church Lane. That takes you up to 'Mytholm Steeps' and it is a killer!