Stage 17 - spoiler

[yello]

Evans is working to close the gap on Sastre but he's not getting anywhere.

Excellent ride from Sastre or superb tactics from CSC?

 

[Flying_Monkey]

Sastre has ridden magnificently - mind you, everyone was being quite cagey and saving it up for the last climb... but it looks like he will get a couple of minutes on everyone at least. He will have to get more to hold off Evans in the TT though... he's won! We must just wait and watch the clock now.

 

[MrGrumpy]

wtf happened to ITv4 ahhhhh

 

[marinyork]

2:15 taken out of Evans to have 1:34 on him.

 

[Chris James]

Good ride by Sastre but you would expect him to take time out of Evans on the climbs.

Sastre is a climber who can time trial okay, Evans time trials well and can climb a bit too albeit he doesn't seem to have the acceleration to actually win mountain stages.

 

[Chris James]

2:15 taken out of Evans to have 1:34 on him.

I can't see that being anywhere near enough, unless Satsre has the ride of his life or Evans crashes.

 

[Chuffy]

CSC blew it....
That's not enough of a lead.

 

[Renard]

I don't know. Depends on how much inspiration Sastre can take into the final TT. How far is it anyway?

Twas a very exciting climb anyway!

 

[Chuffy]

I'm curious as to why it was Sastre and not Schleck who CSC launched. Were they using Schleck as a Trojan horse, knowing that the Leech would follow him and not Carlos? Some kind of 'this year it's Carlos, next year it's you' deal, hmmmm?

 

[Flying_Monkey]

Sastre is a far better climber on hills like this - I suppose they were hoping that Evans might try to follow and crack, thereby losing more time to both Sastre and Schleck. However Evans did what he needed to do. 1.34 is not enough - he would need at least 2.00 on the TT over Evans and probably more.

 

[yello]

I guess CSC figured that Evans would stick to yellow, so sent Sastre up the road to try and put some time into him. It really was win-win for CSC, clever riding. Evans has something else to consider.

He (Evans) has just been interviewed and was all smiles (he looked f*cked when he crossed the line though!). Says he did what he could, he knows he has the advantage over Sastre in the TT, so knows he's still in it. No headbutts or threats, just a tired looking rider with an honest appraisal of the day's events.

 

[joshw]

Andy Schleck looked way too comfortable...

 

[Skip Madness]

Here's a bit of a form guide over the past three years when Evans and Sastre have gone head-to-head in long time-trials in Grand Tours:

2005 Tour de France: Stage 20 (55 km)

Lance Armstrong - 1.11'46"
...
Cadel Evans +2'06"
...
Carlos Sastre +3'10"

Sastre loses to Evans by 1'04".
Sastre loses 1.16 seconds per kilometre to Evans.

2006 Tour de France: Stage 7 (52 km)

Serguei Gonchar - 1.01'43"
...
Cadel Evans +1'49"
...
Carlos Sastre +2'11"

Sastre loses to Evans by 22".
Sastre loses 0.42 seconds per kilometer.

2006 Tour de France: Stage 19 (57 km)

Serguei Gonchar - 1.07'45"
...
Cadel Evans +3'41"
...
Carlos Sastre +4'42"

Sastre loses to Evans by 1'01".
Sastre loses 1.07 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

2007 Tour de France: Stage 13 (54 km)

Alexandre Vinokourov - 1.06'34"
...
Cadel Evans +1'14"
...
Carlos Sastre +4'01"

Sastre loses to Evans by 2'47".
Sastre loses 3.10 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

2007 Tour de France: Stage 19 (55.5 km)

Levi Leipheimer - 1.02'44"
...
Cadel Evans +51"
...
Carlos Sastre +3'24"

Sastre loses to Evans by 2'33".
Sastre loses 2.76 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

2007 Vuelta a España: Stage 8 (52.2 km)

Bert Grabsch - 57'05"
...
Cadel Evans +2'20"
...
Carlos Sastre +4'03"

Sastre loses to Evans by 1'43".
Sastre loses 1.97 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

------------------------------

Sastre has 1'34" advantage going into the time-trial assuming nothing changes tomorrow or the day after. The stage 20 time-trial is 53 km. This means, by my reckoning, that to catch Sastre, Evans must make up 1.77 seconds per kilometer - any less and Sastre wins. As you can see, he managed that in all three of the time-trials last year over a similar distance. What is interesting is that he did not manage it in any of the time-trials in the two preceding years. It's going to be incredibly close.

 

[MichaelM]

I'd be very disappointed for the whole TdF to be won on a TT - I want to see some serious attacking riding in the mountains today. I still think Sastre could pull out a big stage... he has to really.

What numbers do you think I should pick for the midweek lottery?

 

[yello]

I'd be very disappointed for the whole TdF to be won on a TT.

In fairness to Evans (who's kinda implicated there!) it wouldn't be just the TTs that would have done it for him. Evan's has had to hang in there in the mountains too. Compare him with, say, Millar and you get my point.

I know it's almost fashionable to diss Evans (and I do it too!) but you have to give him the credit he deserves. He has stayed the distance and, for a TTer, he certainly embarrasses a number of supposed climbers! Its down to the more exciting climbers to put the time into Evans if they can't match him against the clock.