To me, abolition of VAT at the end of this financial year is more likely than it might appear at first glance.
For the Tories to be able to say look we are free to do this now that we have left the E.U. must have a great appeal.
It would also allow for a high street sale, no VAT means a 16.66% reduction in price and surely many businesses would be prepared to top this up to 20%.
Clearly the VAT revenue would have to be recovered by increases in income tax, corporation tax etc. and significantly over compensating would allow for tax increases to repay the COVID support measures debt “without raising taxes”.
Bob Jackson’s closing and reopening has been noted here, so one of their basic frames goes from down from £700 to £585, nice to advertise and customers may be tempted by get it now before they start noticing the increase in their income tax.
In the past one big problem with abolishing VAT has always been cash flow for both HMRC and businesses, the business have stock that they paid VAT on to buy but can’t charge the customer when they sell and HMRC can't afford to refund the whole quarter's VAT revenue.
But the extensive borrowing to required to refund VAT has already partially occurred. Many businesses have been sitting on stock for longer than their VAT accounting period and have already been refunded.
As over time VAT has crept up and at 20% in England it is towards the higher levels, most countries are at this level or lower, although some E.U. countries have higher rates for example 25% Denmark. It is not clear to me how much an increase in VAT would be received, with most Sora equipped bikes already over £1,000 in many LBS I am already thinking “Wow, that’s a lot”. It is not that I dislike Sora, I just expect in on sub £700 bikes.
The Government has a rare opportunity to redesign the tax system, with Rishi Sunak, whose working life has been as an investment banker, doing the sums and Boris talking nonsense in a positive and enthusiastic way.
Unlike most times when tax changes are hated by many, the COVID debt is obvious to all and like most political issues, most people aren't interested in the details of the solution but will accept that it needs money to be raised somehow.
Exactly how much a new system would raise is obviously going to depend on your politics but you could easily sneak in 10% more or less for health, defence, policing etc without most people being that bothered.