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Weather forecasts that are always wrong

Discussion in 'CycleChat Cafe' started by thePig, 21 Jun 2008.

  1. thePig

    thePig New Member

    Location:
    London
    It always seems I take the wrong stuff with me on long bike rides by relying too heavily on useless weather forecasts.

    Do the weather forecasters get it right where you live?

    If they don't, you might want to send this letter to them.
     
  2. postman

    postman Legendary Member

    Location:
    Meanwood ,Leeds
    I agree.Saw a forecast after returning from York cycle show.That said gale force winds 60-65mph.With rain.Because of that have decided to alter date of Ladybower meet up.Now it says on another site not the telly.Light rain and sun.So played safe and riding next saturday.Having cancelled a different ride.
     
  3. marinyork

    marinyork Resting in suspended Animation

    Location:
    Logopolis
    For current computer power and resolution they do a pretty good job I think. That and fluid dynamics and dynamical systems are very hard topics (something people in the global warming, a different topic, threads overlook).

    I often find that forecasts that are usually "totally out" are the ones that predict a blanket of rain for several hours moving up the country and then rain doesn't appear but you hear other reports of it nearby from friends and relatives. Later on playback you see what happens - there has been a lot of rain but holes have appeared in the rain clouds mysteriously over where I live. My philosophy is that ultra heavy rain only happens for perhaps half a dozen times a year and the chances of being caught in that are small.
     
  4. yenrod

    yenrod Guest

    Take this WE - quite miserable UP TO NOW: could be sunny tommorow...

    Y.Day it was saying it'd be bad Saturday OK Sun. but now its stretched to Tom/Sunday too !

    I dont feel the Weather people can forecst at all and its better getting good at the Weather (subject) yourself and then comparing.

    I use:

    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel_eur.gif

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html - 'click play' the right blue arrow!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1045 - change for your town etc..

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_radar.html
     
  5. Dayvo

    Dayvo Just passin' through

  6. yenrod

    yenrod Guest

  7. surfgurl

    surfgurl New Member

    Location:
    Somerset
    I'm waiting on the weather forecast for Glastonbury Festival. Metcheck changes everytime I check the site. I just want to know whether I will be sitting in a muddy field or a sunny field for 6 days.
    I'll pack for both eventualities, but it would be nice to know.
     
  8. Yorkshireman

    Yorkshireman New Member

    We seem to be getting forecasts along the lines of ... Tomorrow there is a possibility of some sunny spells with the odd cloud passing over, and the chance of light showers from time to time throughout the day. As for the wind/breeze ... :blush:. :ohmy: So whatever happens ... they must get at least one bit right ;)
     
  9. mr_cellophane

    mr_cellophane Veteran

    Location:
    Essex
    BBC weather for today

    On Thursday it said "Heavy Rain"
    On Friday it said "Cloudy"

    And really it was light showers.
     
  10. Lardyboy

    Lardyboy New Member

    What is causing the clouds to form those patterns? Yenners, or anybody, have any idea?
     
  11. Night Train

    Night Train Guest

    It is vortice shedding as the air flows past the peak. It causes a 'flip flop' of air pressure behind the peak that changes from one side to the other. The same effect causes flag poles and tall thin industrial chimneys to occilate at resonance frequency from side to side across the direction of the wind. This has been known to cause chimneys to collapse. If you look at a modern tall thin chimney it will have helical flutes or aerofoils at the top to reduce this effect.
     
  12. Night Train

    Night Train Guest

    Weather here is pretty reliable. That's why Manchester is known as the rainy place.
     
  13. Keith Oates

    Keith Oates Janner

    Those cloud patterns are really good photos, as for the weather take it as it comes and if it does rain then just enjoy the ride, event or whatever, as best you can!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  14. CopperBrompton

    CopperBrompton Bicycle: a means of transport between cake-stops

    Location:
    London
    Glastonbury weather can be forecast with 100% accuracy: it will be very wet and at least six inches deep in mud.

    Ben
     
  15. girofan

    girofan New Member

    True Yorky, but personally I don't think it's the weather where they fail, it's the timing and intensity that seems to be awry.
    You would think with all the computerised assistance now available they could be more accurate, but seem to be getting worse. Is it a case of more being less? :biggrin: