When will the bike shortage in the UK end ?

[MichaelW2]

If you were Mr Production Manager at Shimano how would you satisfy customer demand for everything, now:
Concentrate on tradtional cold forged mid-level groupsets for max output.
Concentrate on high end, complex, labour intensive products with high profit margins?

 

[vickster]

According to my LBS, Trek as an example will likely fit their new bikes either with the new 12 speed groupsets or SRAM as they have lots of frames which were produced pre-pandemic, but there isn't any/much 'lower' end Shimano kit available. Apparently Specialized didn't get round to making 2022 frames pre-pandemic so there's going to be far fewer bikes available

 

[Punkawallah]

I can see the second hand market being very buoyant before long - all those pandemic bikes coming up.

 

[MichaelW2]

I can see the second hand market being very buoyant before long - all those pandemic bikes coming up.

Free dog with every bike.

 

[Elybazza61]

According to my LBS, Trek as an example will likely fit their new bikes either with the new 12 speed groupsets or SRAM as they have lots of frames which were produced pre-pandemic, but there isn't any/much 'lower' end Shimano kit available. Apparently Specialized didn't get round to making 2022 frames pre-pandemic so there's going to be far fewer bikes available

Same thing with Ridley for road bikes all 2021 Ultegra will be the 12-speed Di2 with all mechanical builds 105(some may just be available in Di2) .

Might not be much full stop either way.

 

[biggs682]

I can see the second hand market being very buoyant before long - all those pandemic bikes coming up.

I have noticed sales of 3 - 6 year old bikes have slowed

 

[Juan Kog]

I can see the second hand market being very buoyant before long - all those pandemic bikes coming up.

Or they may carry on gathering dust at the back of the garage.

 

[CXRAndy]

Thank fooook I've got several bikes I could get on if a part was delayed for months

 

[Shortandcrisp]

I took one of my bikes into my lbs to have a new chain fitted. The mechanic said he hoped it didn’t also require a new cassette because he’d been quoted a supply date of early 2023 for these! Although he did add that this was probably due to some of the big players preordering more than they actually required.

 

[dodgy]

End of 2023. Imagine if all the motorists decided to ride to work, it would be even harder to get hold.

lol good one

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

If you were Mr Production Manager at Shimano how would you satisfy customer demand for everything, now:
Concentrate on tradtional cold forged mid-level groupsets for max output.
Concentrate on high end, complex, labour intensive products with high profit margins?

I'd concentrate on the low end and mid range stuff, to grab market share which means more market share when replacement parts are wanted in the futture. High end stuff is more of a vanity show, IMHO. The volume is in the bread & butter stuff used by the army of casual and utility riders who don't actively identify themselves as "cyclists".

 

[Alex321]

I'd concentrate on the low end and mid range stuff, to grab market share which means more market share when replacement parts are wanted in the futture. High end stuff is more of a vanity show, IMHO. The volume is in the bread & butter stuff used by the army of casual and utility riders who don't actively identify themselves as "cyclists".

Mid range stuff certainly (which means Tiagra/105 in Shimano road components.

Low end stuff doesn't tend to get replaced much, it comes on cheap bikes (and I imagine is sold to bike manufacturers with a massive bulk discount), and if they get ridden enough to wear out the components, the owner is more likely to go for a better bike than just replace components. Most of the bikes with low end components won't get ridden enough to wear them out.

As you say, the high end stuff is a small enough number that even with big profit margins, they won't be worth as much as the mid range stuff.

 

[Blue Hills]

Mid range stuff certainly (which means Tiagra/105 in Shimano road components.

Low end stuff doesn't tend to get replaced much, it comes on cheap bikes (and I imagine is sold to bike manufacturers with a massive bulk discount), and if they get ridden enough to wear out the components, the owner is more likely to go for a better bike than just replace components. Most of the bikes with low end components won't get ridden enough to wear them out.

As you say, the high end stuff is a small enough number that even with big profit margins, they won't be worth as much as the mid range stuff.

A lot of truth in this I fear. A concentration on ramping up production and distribution of low/mid range stuff could be a thin silver lining from this hell for the likes of me who has no intention of going beyond perfectly good 9 speed and has a fair few bikes with threaded stems, but the simple fact is that access to good keenly priced stuff of that sort has become very restricted post brexit - the likes of Chain Reaction/Wiggle have little to no interest in it anymore, haven't for several years, and the excellent Rose and a few other suppliers are now not available. Luckily I have a fair amount of stocks.

 

[dodgy]

I bought 3 Shimano 105 11-28 cassettes last week, £46 each compared to £36 last time I bought one. That should see me through a couple of years, tend to get 6000 miles before I swap them.
Sunlit uplands

 

[biggs682]

Still loads hardly of ridden 1 - 3 year old bikes out there for sale at sensible money