Where will bike design/technology be in 20/30 years time
- Thread starter johnnyb47
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Nigeyy
Legendary Member
- Location
- Massachusetts, USA
Drago
Legendary Member
- Location
- Suburban Poshshire
Indeed. Most drivers let their indicators do the looking for them.
nickyboy
Norven Mankey
- Location
- You want hills? We got hills
Chains, external gears and derailleurs are rubbish. The tech has been on bikes for about a million years
Automatic gearing would be great. Some internal hub system (with a belt drive natch) where you set the cadence range you want and the gearing adjusts to accommodate this. I seem to recall hearing about a system like that.
Presumably it's the usual problem regarding take up.....the industry is run by cyclists and ex-cyclists of the "well rod brakes were OK for me, so why change?" type. Coupled with the UCI insisting on blocking technological improvements to professional bikes and we're stuck in the <insert decade of your choice>
Automatic gearing would be great. Some internal hub system (with a belt drive natch) where you set the cadence range you want and the gearing adjusts to accommodate this. I seem to recall hearing about a system like that.
Presumably it's the usual problem regarding take up.....the industry is run by cyclists and ex-cyclists of the "well rod brakes were OK for me, so why change?" type. Coupled with the UCI insisting on blocking technological improvements to professional bikes and we're stuck in the <insert decade of your choice>
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
Changes over the past 40 or so years haven't been enormous. Indexed gears and integrated brifters. New frame shapes, not all variations on the diamond. One enabled by manufacturing engineering practice, one by new materials. One driven by ergonomics, one by weight. MTBs have been invented as a new category of bike. Then we have wider gearing ranges, better lights and disc brakes. Further on the periphery GPS devices and digital lifestyle integration stuff.
Really that's just tinkering round the edges. And more tinkering round the edges is probably what we can expect.
Some kind of wiring loom built into frames to communicate with electronically actuated brakes and gears? But that would be a kind of endless finessing what we have already, with no big breakthrough change for the end user.
As people have said some kind of communication with cars (probably driverless) which could be two-way. The advent of the driverless car will be a game changer for all road users. Whether/how it will affect bike design I don't know.
Some new materials, and a cost effective manufacturing method may challenge the near-monopoly of the spoked wheel? We'll certainly see some new initiatives that promise to be revolutionary but aren't. Maybe a new Deal Drive automatic transmission wll appear, realise that it solves (with some difficulty) a problem that nobody has, and then go away again.
We now have an orthodoxy of indexed derailleur geared, spoked wheeled bikes. Road bike, hybrid or MTB? which is the same choice as racer or roadster 50 years ago with a new category of MTB added. Alternatives are somewhat niche products (folders, recumbents, e-bikes, even hub gears). I wonder if the market will stay the same or whether it will become more diverse? E-bikes have room to grow I would guess.
Really that's just tinkering round the edges. And more tinkering round the edges is probably what we can expect.
Some kind of wiring loom built into frames to communicate with electronically actuated brakes and gears? But that would be a kind of endless finessing what we have already, with no big breakthrough change for the end user.
As people have said some kind of communication with cars (probably driverless) which could be two-way. The advent of the driverless car will be a game changer for all road users. Whether/how it will affect bike design I don't know.
Some new materials, and a cost effective manufacturing method may challenge the near-monopoly of the spoked wheel? We'll certainly see some new initiatives that promise to be revolutionary but aren't. Maybe a new Deal Drive automatic transmission wll appear, realise that it solves (with some difficulty) a problem that nobody has, and then go away again.
We now have an orthodoxy of indexed derailleur geared, spoked wheeled bikes. Road bike, hybrid or MTB? which is the same choice as racer or roadster 50 years ago with a new category of MTB added. Alternatives are somewhat niche products (folders, recumbents, e-bikes, even hub gears). I wonder if the market will stay the same or whether it will become more diverse? E-bikes have room to grow I would guess.
classic33
Leg End Member
Nothing to stop you putting an electric wheel up front.
ABS, current computer(human brain) is far superior. Why fit something that's worse?
classic33
Leg End Member
Do they know they have them?
Well if I compare my latest bike, a 2015 tourer, with the one I used to cycle to school on in the 1970s, which was made probably early 60s, we are looking 50 years of "development", what has changed, and what has stayed the same?
Frame - same material, marginally different configuration.
Bars - same
Wheels - 700c instead of 27", same alloy.
Saddle - same
Gears - 3 x 9 speed, indexed with brifters instead of 2 x 5 with downtube friction shifters
Brakes - mechanical disks instead of wienmann centrepulls.
Mudguards - SKS chromoplastic instead of Bluemels
I would say that is a pretty modest development in 50 years, so I don't think much will change over the next 20 - 30 years. There have been modest evolutionary changes such as more gears, but they work the same way. The only major developments have been alternative frame materials - Aluminium, carbon, indexing gears, and disk brakes.
Frame - same material, marginally different configuration.
Bars - same
Wheels - 700c instead of 27", same alloy.
Saddle - same
Gears - 3 x 9 speed, indexed with brifters instead of 2 x 5 with downtube friction shifters
Brakes - mechanical disks instead of wienmann centrepulls.
Mudguards - SKS chromoplastic instead of Bluemels
I would say that is a pretty modest development in 50 years, so I don't think much will change over the next 20 - 30 years. There have been modest evolutionary changes such as more gears, but they work the same way. The only major developments have been alternative frame materials - Aluminium, carbon, indexing gears, and disk brakes.
Johnno260
Guru
- Location
- East Sussex
The largest change in my opinion will be materials, more carbon fibre used or newer lighter materials used.
Electronic shifters used more than cable.
Basic frame design etc I can't see changing a great deal.
I can't see discs coming in more, I went from disc to rim brakes, I must say I prefer the rim brakes, the Spyres on my hybrid are very nice, but I don't think they're massively better.
Electronic shifters used more than cable.
Basic frame design etc I can't see changing a great deal.
I can't see discs coming in more, I went from disc to rim brakes, I must say I prefer the rim brakes, the Spyres on my hybrid are very nice, but I don't think they're massively better.
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
The safety pop-out thing was introduced within the past 30 years. And plastic has generally replaced aluminium. And we have all those funny clip-on ones, and MTB style seat post ones. It's been a positive hive of actiivty. Who knows what the future will bring?
I think we have a whole thread's worth of speculation on the future of mudguards.
Mind you, given the current political drive to return to the 1950s, we may in this country see a resurgence of the black rear mudguard tipped with white paint.
I will bet there will be rich people taking their bikes to velodromes on the Moon just to make them lighter. Bikes will be made from what ever that thing in Terminator 2 was made of, some type of liquid metal. The bike can be a tourer one day, and a mountain bike on another day.
cyberknight
As long as I breathe, I attack.
- Location
- Land of confusion
Tour de lune ?
Johnno260
Guru
- Location
- East Sussex
Least he has a helmet on.
Attachments
GuyBoden
Guru
- Location
- Warrington
View attachment 345604
IMHO, the bicycle will still look very similar in the future, but hopefully the roads will improve.
(John Kemp Starley's Safety Bicycle "Rover" 1885.)
IMHO, the bicycle will still look very similar in the future, but hopefully the roads will improve.
(John Kemp Starley's Safety Bicycle "Rover" 1885.)
