Are we being forced to go electric?

[Alex321]

How many 200,000 mile cars do you see ? I'd say that's gonna be less than 5% of vehicles.

If you mean cars currently on the road which have done 200,000+ miles, then yes, you are probably right.

If you mean cars that will reach 200,000+ miles, then I think you are way out. Probably closer to 10 times that, even allowing for the fact that petrol cars tend to have a lower lifespan than diesel.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If you mean cars currently on the road which have done 200,000+ miles, then yes, you are probably right.

If you mean cars that will reach 200,000+ miles, then I think you are way out. Probably closer to 10 times that, even allowing for the fact that petrol cars tend to have a lower lifespan than diesel.

Currently, according to the link I posted earlier, only 25% of cars on the road are above 100,000 miles. That strongly suggests the average car lasts far less than 200,000 miles and maybe even less than 100,000.

Nothing radical has changed in ICE cars over the last couple of decades, so to go from average total mileage around 100,000 to more than 200,000 seems very unlikely, to put it mildly.

Of course, it may be that electric cars are so much longer lasted that they change that figure, but if so, it makes the supposed battery lifetime issue somewhat irrelevant!

 

[Alex321]

Currently, according to the link I posted earlier, only 25% of cars on the road are above 100,000 miles. That strongly suggests the average car lasts far less than 200,000 miles and maybe even less than 100,000.

Nothing radical has changed in ICE cars over the last couple of decades, so to go from average total mileage around 100,000 to more than 200,000 seems very unlikely, to put it mildly.

Of course, it may be that electric cars are so much longer lasted that they change that figure, but if so, it makes the supposed battery lifetime issue somewhat irrelevant!

I'm not suggesting that the average car lifespan is as much as 200,000 miles.

I'm saying that I think a lot more than your suggested 5% will reach that.

Most diesel engined cars for at least the last 30 years have been capable of doing significantly more than that, and I think quite a high proportion will have done so. Fewer with petrol engined cars, but even those, I would think probably a bit more than 5%.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm not suggesting that the average car lifespan is as much as 200,000 miles.

I'm saying that I think a lot more than your suggested 5% will reach that.

I didn't say 5% (I didn't quote any figure)

All I said was that for a lifespan of 200,000 miles, battery performance is unlikely to me a major issue, and then that *current* average lifespan of cars seems to be around 100,000 ish miles. So battery lifespan is a non-issue, relative to the real lifespan of current cars.

That's using what I could uncover from a noddy google search, so very happy to be corrected if there are reputable sources showing otherwise.

 

[Illaveago]

Bath, Birmingham, Bristol, Portsmouth are soon to introduce clean air zones. Expect many more in the next few years

It's all very well for them but it only increases the pollution for other people . . HGV's aren't allowed through Bath and are directed down the A350 increasing traffic and pollution .

 

[Alex321]

I didn't say 5% (I didn't quote any figure)

All I said was that for a lifespan of 200,000 miles, battery performance is unlikely to me a major issue, and then that *current* average lifespan of cars seems to be around 100,000 ish miles. So battery lifespan is a non-issue, relative to the real lifespan of current cars.

That's using what I could uncover from a noddy google search, so very happy to be corrected if there are reputable sources showing otherwise.

Sorry, that was Cougie_uk who suggested 5%, not you.

 

[CXRAndy]

It's all very well for them but it only increases the pollution for other people . . HGV's aren't allowed through Bath and are directed down the A350 increasing traffic and pollution .

Electrification or hydrogen for HGV is here now. Amazon has ordered something like 100,000 EV delivery vans from Rivian. The whole transport system will need to be overhauled completely if we are to help reverse global climate and pollution.

Change isn't going to happen in parallel across all transport types, would be wonderous if it did. Piecemeal approach, as there are so many NIMBYs, Neo Luddites.

 

[Illaveago]

Electrification or hydrogen for HGV is here now. Amazon has ordered something like 100,000 EV delivery vans from Rivian. The whole transport system will need to be overhauled completely if we are to help reverse global climate and pollution.

Change isn't going to happen in parallel across all transport types, would be wonderous if it did. Piecemeal approach, as there are so many NIMBYs, Neo Luddites.

In the meantime whilst the motorist is having to carry the can flying is exempt and is on the increase with expansion of airports planned .

 

[CXRAndy]

In the meantime whilst the motorist is having to carry the can flying is exempt and is on the increase with expansion of airports planned .

Since COVID and the current lack of flights. Ideal opportunity to stop flying and collapse airline companies. We don't need to fly on holiday every year

 

[roubaixtuesday]

In the meantime whilst the motorist is having to carry the can flying is exempt and is on the increase with expansion of airports planned .

The relative subsidy of flying, mainly used by the wealthy, over other forms of transport is a scandal entirely regardless of climate change. Taking the co2 into account as well makes it absolutely absurd.

 

[Gillstay]

In the meantime whilst the motorist is having to carry the can flying is exempt and is on the increase with expansion of airports planned .

I feel the motorist is not doing enough as they sit around with engines running to charge mobile phones, or to justify being parked in the wrong place. They are buying foolishly large vehicles that are becoming less efficient at a time we need them to be more so.

 

[icowden]

I feel the motorist is not doing enough as they sit around with engines running to charge mobile phones, or to justify being parked in the wrong place. They are buying foolishly large vehicles that are becoming less efficient at a time we need them to be more so.

I'd agree with you except that vehicles cars are becoming more efficient not less.

 

[Gillstay]

I'd agree with you except that vehicles cars are becoming more efficient not less.

Not quite so as large tyres, weight and SUV type cars is making the average mpg less rather than more. USA had gone 14% in the wrong direction last time I checked, which is mind you a couple of years ago. I wonder if the engines efficiency is peaking and market trends are ruining any gains.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Not quite so as large tyres, weight and SUV type cars is making the average mpg less rather than more. USA had gone 14% in the wrong direction last time I checked, which is mind you a couple of years ago. I wonder if the engines efficiency is peaking and market trends are ruining any gains.

Exactly this. Size and power output of cars has increased massively in recent years IMO, based on the number of mahoosive obscenely overpowered Chelsea tractors on the road.

... checks for evidence... ... can't find anything... ... Will stick to my prejudices unless anyone can disabuse me...

 

[mistyoptic]

I feel the motorist is not doing enough as they sit around with engines running to charge mobile phones, or to justify being parked in the wrong place. They are buying foolishly large vehicles that are becoming less efficient at a time we need them to be more so.

This!

In car parks

while collecting their children from nursery (suffocating the other parents in the process)

etc. etc.

makes me wonder how many of them pay for their own fuel