mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Where are those graphs from? Here's the BBC's:
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roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Covid cases, hospitalisation and deaths
Eric Olthwaite
Guest
No modelling that treats all three the same, given the progress of the vaccination programme, is worthy of serious consideration.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
oooh who to trust? The BBC or a former Microsoft Chief's pet project?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I said:
"By Easter the UK will have vaccinated all its most vulnerable element (JCVI Gps 1-9, over 50s plus plus): about 32M so a wave serious illness and deaths will not result from rising cases. But the other 25M over 11s will still be unvaccinated and even if some of those 25M have antibodies from previous infection (maybe 4M), the population susceptible to infection is still 20M+. It will be difficult to keep R below 1 after the May planned relaxations."
1) 32M - the vulnerable half of society - contributing nearly all the deaths - will have received the first dose by Easter and all over 80s (and H&SCW) will have had their second by end April;
2) Both (all 3) vaccines give very good protection against serious disease, even with just the first dose.
3) Rt will rise because of relaxation of restrictions but the number susceptible will be less than 50% of the population, which will keep the case levels under control.
If you put parsimonious estimates of variables into a model, then waves can be generated. I have shared some graphs of possible waves upthread.
"By Easter the UK will have vaccinated all its most vulnerable element (JCVI Gps 1-9, over 50s plus plus): about 32M so a wave serious illness and deaths will not result from rising cases. But the other 25M over 11s will still be unvaccinated and even if some of those 25M have antibodies from previous infection (maybe 4M), the population susceptible to infection is still 20M+. It will be difficult to keep R below 1 after the May planned relaxations."
I suggested that any wave this summer will reflect an increase (and fall) of daily cases. But that the increased numbers ('a spike') of daily C19 cases would not result in a wave of anything like the same magnitude (and IFR) of serious illness, implicit burden on the NHS (hospitalisations) let alone deaths. Because:
1) 32M - the vulnerable half of society - contributing nearly all the deaths - will have received the first dose by Easter and all over 80s (and H&SCW) will have had their second by end April;
2) Both (all 3) vaccines give very good protection against serious disease, even with just the first dose.
3) Rt will rise because of relaxation of restrictions but the number susceptible will be less than 50% of the population, which will keep the case levels under control.
If you put parsimonious estimates of variables into a model, then waves can be generated. I have shared some graphs of possible waves upthread.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
The BBC graphs you so kindly shared are out of date and contain no data after 7 March. But I've checked the 1 Feb and 7 Mar datapoints on the graphs I shared and the BBC ones and they are the same. So go for it: trust them, and comment on what they show, rather than assaulting their validity.
Since the purpose of the graphs of Texas and Mississipi cases in the last 30 days I shared were to look at the effect of relaxation of restrictions on 4 March, out of date https://covidtracking.com/data graphs are not so useful, even if you clipped them from a BBC site.
As of March 7, 2021 we [covidtracking.com 's emboldening btw
] are no longer collecting new data. Let's hope the BBC manages to find another 'easy to display' source.Who to trust, eh?
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Bit worrying that the UK seems to have levelled off, too, or possibly turned back upwards slightly. Next relaxation Monday might be the last for a while?
Hot off the press: Merkel has just announced the extra lockdown planned for 1st to 6th April has been cancelled.
It was too short notice for industry - supply chains etc., would have affected benefits payments, and above all difficult if not impossible for the states/Länder to put through the necessary legislation to enable two extra bank holidays.
The country's federal structure is designed to stop precipitate or 'dictatorial' decisions coming from the centre.
She took full responsibility for the decision and apologised to the public for the additional insecurity it will have caused. That a decision taken amongst a few on Monday following 11 hours of deliberation by the central and state governments has had to be overturned a couple of days later will not help trust in the overall management of the pandemic. The intention was good but the practicalities had not been sufficiently thought through. The legal position regarding two extra holidays had not been suitably thought out.
Some will see this more positively in that a mistake was made, recognised and corrected, others will see it as doing more damage to the conservatives in an election year - their rating in the polls is falling significantly. The government is reacting rather than acting.
The vaccination rate is still the greatest source of discontent, and it is estimated it will not act a a brake on transmission until the end of May or beginning of June.
It was too short notice for industry - supply chains etc., would have affected benefits payments, and above all difficult if not impossible for the states/Länder to put through the necessary legislation to enable two extra bank holidays.
The country's federal structure is designed to stop precipitate or 'dictatorial' decisions coming from the centre.
She took full responsibility for the decision and apologised to the public for the additional insecurity it will have caused. That a decision taken amongst a few on Monday following 11 hours of deliberation by the central and state governments has had to be overturned a couple of days later will not help trust in the overall management of the pandemic. The intention was good but the practicalities had not been sufficiently thought through. The legal position regarding two extra holidays had not been suitably thought out.
Some will see this more positively in that a mistake was made, recognised and corrected, others will see it as doing more damage to the conservatives in an election year - their rating in the polls is falling significantly. The government is reacting rather than acting.
The vaccination rate is still the greatest source of discontent, and it is estimated it will not act a a brake on transmission until the end of May or beginning of June.
Thanks for the on-the-spot info - much better than the journalistic fluff from the media.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
I had a quick go at ourworldindata (only quick before I go to lunch, so sorry for no download/attach/edit cycle) and it seems we have not quite levelled off (so I was wrong) but we are definitely levelling off (so you are wrong too!) with cases now falling only 4% week-on-week compared with 30% three weeks ago.
Has anyone at gov.uk said exactly what the data criteria are for each step of legal unlocking? Is 0% good enough, or do cases need to be falling or below some level?
