Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

[...] As of March 7, 2021 we [covidtracking.com 's emboldening btw ] are no longer collecting new data. Let's hope the BBC manages to find another 'easy to display' source.
Who to trust, eh?

I've said it before and I'll say it again: "In God we trust: all others must bring data." And ideally informative data rather than random bricktext with assumptions hidden, sources not cited and steps missing from the calculations.

Ten points for spotting that data source expiring, but minus several thousand for trolling dyslexics yet again.

Also, I tried to check what restrictions were lifted in Texas on that date in reality (rather than politician announcements because we know from Boris that he announces stuff that doesn't actually change until days later) and got bogged down in articles about the governor's officials suing various counties like Travis County and cities like Austin for ignoring the governor's order and not lifting their earlier-imposed local restrictions.

Plus, even with the laws being reversed, there still seems to be strong public health messages to continue using masks and shoot, so it's just that people and especially businesses can't be fined for being daffodils any more, not necessarily that behaviour has changed in practice.

And finally, I don't think we know whether gov.uk is planning to keep trying to persuade people to use masks and so on (what some call Not Plugged In) after the legal free-for-all is declared, do we?

This needs more data before it becomes useful information IMO.

 

[Cirrus]

Has this been done?.. Italian authorities discover 29M Oxford/AstraZeneca doses: La Stampa – POLITICO Looks like Italy have found 29m doses of the AZ vaccine behind a sofa..

Edited to add, according to the article they were destined for the UK

 

[Yellow Fang]

Has this been done?.. Italian authorities discover 29M Oxford/AstraZeneca doses: La Stampa – POLITICO Looks like Italy have found 29m doses of the AZ vaccine behind a sofa

The Telegraph is reporting they were destined for Europe and developing countries.

Edited to add: British sources say they were not expecting any shipment from Italy.

 

[Cirrus]

The Telegraph is reporting they were destined for Europe and developing countries.

Edited to add: British sources say they were not expecting any shipment from Italy.

LA Stampa are intimating that EU sources told them they were destined for the UK, will be interesting to see how it pans out

 

[PK99]

I had a quick go at ourworldindata (only quick before I go to lunch, so sorry for no download/attach/edit cycle) and it seems we have not quite levelled off (so I was wrong) but we are definitely levelling off (so you are wrong too!) with cases now falling only 4% week-on-week compared with 30% three weeks ago.

Has anyone at gov.uk said exactly what the data criteria are for each step of legal unlocking? Is 0% good enough, or do cases need to be falling or below some level?

of course the gradient of the line of an exponential decay changes.
That is not the same as a change in the function that "leveling off" would imply.

This plot from the same data source is interesting - I could believe it is erroueous
Or,
Does it suggest that we have reached the point where the irreducible False Positive level has been reached?

 

[Eric Olthwaite]

Does it suggest that we have reached the point where the irreducible False Positive level has been reached?

Graph looks dodgy - even a false positive level would have some variation day to day

 

[Yellow Fang]

LA Stampa are intimating that EU sources told them they were destined for the UK, will be interesting to see how it pans out

From the Daily Express
A spokesman for AstraZeneca said: “We would like to clarify some inaccurate statements relating to vaccine doses at the Anagni plant.

"There are no exports currently planned other than to COVAX countries.

"There are 13m doses of vaccine waiting for quality control release to be dispatched to COVAX as part of our commitment to supply millions of doses to low-income countries, the vaccine was made outside the EU and brought to the Agnani plant to be filled into vials.

"The EU fully supports supplying low and middle-income countries through the COVAX facility.

"There are another 16m doses waiting for quality control release to be dispatched to Europe. Close to 10m doses will be delivered to EU countries during the last week of March, the balance in April as the doses are approved for release after quality control.

 

[Cirrus]

The Telegraph is reporting they were destined for Europe and developing countries.

Edited to add: British sources say they were not expecting any shipment from Italy.

Yup, BBC are also now saying the doses are supposed to be for Belgium

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

From the Daily Express
A spokesman for AstraZeneca said: “We would like to clarify some inaccurate statements relating to vaccine doses at the Anagni plant.

"There are no exports currently planned other than to COVAX countries.

"There are 13m doses of vaccine waiting for quality control release to be dispatched to COVAX as part of our commitment to supply millions of doses to low-income countries, the vaccine was made outside the EU and brought to the Agnani plant to be filled into vials.

"The EU fully supports supplying low and middle-income countries through the COVAX facility.

"There are another 16m doses waiting for quality control release to be dispatched to Europe. Close to 10m doses will be delivered to EU countries during the last week of March, the balance in April as the doses are approved for release after quality control.

So, la Stampa says it's for the UK, AZ say it's for Covax countries, the Telegraph says it's for Europe and developing countries, and BBC Radio 4 announced that it was Belgium bound. Will anything ever be straightforward with AZ?

 

[johnblack]

Do the positive tests includes those from LFT or just PCR?
We have two kids testing twice a week at home and they are logging their negative results, but they said that nearly all of their friends haven't bothered logging the results and won't unless they test positive. So I guess if that is reflected throughout the country, there will be an uptick of positives results as a % of tests carried out.

 

[mjr]

"Hospitalisations explosion" means Belgium moves schools back to remote learning (except "maternelle"), nonessential shops to appointment-only, hair&beauty closed, groups limited to 4, border controls and checks on journey essentialness increased over Easter. https://www.lavenir.net/cnt/dmf2021...our-eviter-une-explosion-des-hospitalisations

 

[matticus]

nonessential shops to appointment-only,

Hmm, now there's an interesting idea. I suppose it's a bit like Click-n-Collect.
(Guess it would allow a regular customer of - say - an art gallery to pop-in and browse.)

 

[mjr]

Hmm, now there's an interesting idea. I suppose it's a bit like Click-n-Collect.
(Guess it would allow a regular customer of - say - an art gallery to pop-in and browse.)

Click and collect is included in the permission, too.

Belgium has had several interesting ideas, such as time limits in supermarkets, but how much use they've been, who knows?

 

[matticus]

Belgium has had several interesting ideas, such as time limits in supermarkets,

Are you sure you weren't watching a gameshow?

 

[mjr]

Are you sure you weren't watching a gameshow?

Maybe a film? It's certainly felt like an inverted version of Logan's Run at times recently, with the young being sacrificed so the old can booze indoors and go on holidays sooner.