Coronavirus outbreak

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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
The virus mutates once in (say) every 1 million infections. If most people were vaccinated, there wouldn't be millions of infections (or at least, infections that didn't get wiped out quickly by the immune systems of the vaccinated) so there wouldn't be lots of mutations. Having a huge pool of people with no immunity means that the virus can keep on circulating and mutating.
You can say that more vaccination would have helped, but we could also say that if most people were masking, keeping distance and isolating when positive, then there would be fewer infections too. It would all help reduce the circulation and so reduce the probability of successful mutations arising.

I also seem to recall reading that South Africa was paying more per shot than the UK, EU or USA for some vaccines. They have fully vaccinated just 23.5% of their population, although that appears to be the third-highest number in Africa, so how do you rate that? I don't know.
 

fossyant

Ride It Like You Stole It!
Location
South Manchester
South Africa - heavily mutated variant detected.

I think that's my colleagues plans scuppered for Christmas - she's from SA and 'was' going back to see family. I hope she's got good insurance.:sad:
 

ColinJ

Puzzle game procrastinator!
You can say that more vaccination would have helped, but we could also say that if most people were masking, keeping distance and isolating when positive, then there would be fewer infections too. It would all help reduce the circulation and so reduce the probability of successful mutations arising.
Definitely. The way things are now, the world is like a giant automated biological weapons laboratory churning out horrid variants every few months.

It would only take one of these variants to be very infectious, very lethal, and not affected by the current vaccines, for us to be in BIG trouble.
 

Milzy

Guru
Definitely. The way things are now, the world is like a giant automated biological weapons laboratory churning out horrid variants every few months.

It would only take one of these variants to be very infectious, very lethal, and not affected by the current vaccines, for us to be in BIG trouble.
Maybe you could write a science fiction book about that happening. In 10 years time 25% of the planet will still be unvaxed so we’ll know more about this living experiment by then.
 

ColinJ

Puzzle game procrastinator!
Maybe you could write a science fiction book about that happening. In 10 years time 25% of the planet will still be unvaxed so we’ll know more about this living experiment by then.
There are plenty of books like that already!

This was always going to happen one day with global air travel able to spread new bugs around the world almost before we knew what was happening. I watched "Contagion" 9 or 10 year ago and that was the movie's plot.
 

Julia9054

Guru
Location
Knaresborough
There are plenty of books like that already!

This was always going to happen one day with global air travel able to spread new bugs around the world almost before we knew what was happening. I watched "Contagion" 9 or 10 year ago and that was the movie's plot.
I used to show parts of that film to year 10 as part of GCSE biology. The part where the scientist explains to the politicians what an R number is was particularly useful. Of course, everyone knows what a bloody R number is now!
The DVD has gone back in the cupboard. I don't want to traumatise them!
 

Alex321

Veteran
Location
South Wales
There are plenty of books like that already!

This was always going to happen one day with global air travel able to spread new bugs around the world almost before we knew what was happening. I watched "Contagion" 9 or 10 year ago and that was the movie's plot.
There was a BBC drama series on the same subject, called Survivors, back in the 70's. I vividly remember watching that as a teenager.
 

ColinJ

Puzzle game procrastinator!
There was a BBC drama series on the same subject, called Survivors, back in the 70's. I vividly remember watching that as a teenager.
I don't remember watching that, but it was when I was out at the pub nearly every night!
 

midlife

Guru
50,000 cases a day and Omicron on the horizon :sad:. Looks like at work we will be reducing covid precautions to get more people through the doors........
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
"By the end of this winter everyone in Germany will either be vaccinated, recovered or dead,"

Says Germany's health minister. Wonder if our government will say anything similar....
I wondered if this quotation would make its way across the Channel. It was a clever play on words. I think very belatedly that the danger of the virus, and the fact that if you are unvaccinated you will catch it sometime between now and Easter has concentrated minds and the willingness to be vaccinated has started to increase. Too late to stop the fourth wave. The bluntness of the acting health minister's words reflect some of the frustration at about 20% of the adult population refusing to get vaccinated, and thereby become drivers of the infection rate, and overloading of hospitals.

On the other hand, the same health minister said a short while ago it was right to allow the emergency country-wide legislation to lapse (yesterday), sending a clear signal that the pandemic was nearly over. He had to backtrack on this extremely quickly, but the damage was done. The replacement legislation does not allow for curfews or lockdowns on the grounds they may be unconstitutional, and has pushed responsibility back to the states/Länder.

It's agonising watching the political class make the same mistakes as last year, mainly in dithering. My opinion is they are simply worn out. It has long been apparent that a 70% vaccination rate is insufficient for the new variant although it would have been enough a year ago. This fact does not seem to have sunk into the brains of those who make decisions.

There is a power vacuum because the newly elected government is not in office yet, and the old has to continue on a caretaker basis until the new is sworn in. Merkel will be missed - she summoned the leaders of the new coalition to the Chancellery a couple of days ago and from what has leaked out basically told them 'you've got to do more than this and you've got to do it now'. Couldn't come at a worse time.
 

geocycle

Legendary Member
@Unkraut great point about politicians being worn out. While we are rightly programmed to be critical of them, the personal load they carry is very substantial. I work for a large organisation and the leaders have been under huge pressure for the whole pandemic.
 
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