My Mrs is a podiatrist (private ) currently closed her business down till June hoping to be able to reopen. However........ having real problems sourcing proper PPE without being charged through the nose. Hope things settle down next month or so and she can get what she needs. No way would she work without it now!
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In general, despite what other people said about salons still being open, many salons closed early because they couldn't get any PPE. That was in the days when it was much more plentiful than today, unfortunately. Pharmacies are having a lot of problems with PPE currently.
The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.
randynewmanscat
Veteran
- Location
- Vienne, Poitou-Chrentes
Some light relief in an unremittingly grim month. Another country showing how social distancing is done when serious and essential matters need to be attended to.
If the rest of the world needed a test platform for forecasts and modelling they have it.
View: https://youtu.be/jNIbMHWUyfs
If the rest of the world needed a test platform for forecasts and modelling they have it.View: https://youtu.be/jNIbMHWUyfs
Andy in Germany
Guru
- Location
- Freiburg im Breisgau
I'd thoroughly misunderstood the article anyway, as pointed out upthread.
Nonetheless, only registering hospital deaths allows for some serious fudging of the figures, and if there's one thing this government is really good at, it's fudging figures.
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There's a bit of evidence that the deaths in some european countries deaths in nursing homes is between a third and half the hospital deaths. Some even reckon at a parity with.
Whatever the UK implements now with care homes is too late for wave-1. Any positives are sheer damn luck or hard work by individuals workers and care homes. Of course there is the grim possibility that the virus will just permanently belt around care homes, even if outside homes we have smaller 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves spaced out.
So did my Mrs it was just too risky to continue at the time !
kingrollo
Guru
not questioning you - But I have often wondered how they calculate R0 without contact testing ?
Monday 20th April
Tested positive to date - 417
Tested negative to date - 1145
Confirmed cases in hospital - 71
Confirmed cases discharged - 181
Confirmed cases in ICU - 9
Total deaths - 92
I think that around April 8th ICU was 75% full and you could feel the pressure, now it's less than 50% and it looks like the additionally created ICU areas will not be needed. I have not heard of an "unusual" death so far, a young person or a healthy adult etc. They never give a stat for staff who are or who have been confirmed cases?
Tested positive to date - 417
Tested negative to date - 1145
Confirmed cases in hospital - 71
Confirmed cases discharged - 181
Confirmed cases in ICU - 9
Total deaths - 92
I think that around April 8th ICU was 75% full and you could feel the pressure, now it's less than 50% and it looks like the additionally created ICU areas will not be needed. I have not heard of an "unusual" death so far, a young person or a healthy adult etc. They never give a stat for staff who are or who have been confirmed cases?
lane
Veteran
Why hospital deaths only and how is it used to calculate R0?
stowie
Legendary Member
Some light relief in an unremittingly grim month. Another country showing how social distancing is done when serious and essential matters need to be attended to.
View: https://youtu.be/jNIbMHWUyfs
Brazil government operates on a similar system to the US. The states have a lot of power to manage their affairs, including health emergencies.
Most governors in Brazil have ignored Bolsonaro, in the same way most US states have ignored Trump.
My family are spread around Brazil, but mostly in Goias state (near Brasilia in the centre of Brasil) and Santa Catarina (in the South). All have been in lockdown since March time. In Goias state, the small town where my mother in law lives self-isolated themselves entirely by having the local police shut down the main roads into the town - it generally gets a lot of weekend tourists from the state capital and they banned all travel.
Balneario Camboriú in Santa Catarina is normally heaving at this time of the year with tourists from all over South America. It is currently deserted. You can see videos of this on youtube - I have one below
My family who live there were saying that anyone caught on the beach were escorted back home. Caught twice and they were taken to police station where they were fined (with the police taking hours for the paperwork to really make life miserable..)
All foreigners (estrangeiros) into Brazil are banned currently unless they have residency visas or some other emergency cases, so even on a federal level they are taking it seriously.
Bolsonaro's popularity rose in January mainly due to better economy, but it has absolutely slumped in recent weeks. He is desperately trying to disassociate himself from the measures in an attempt to gain more popularity.
Brazil has escaped so far the worst of the Coronavirus, but I fear this won't continue. And Brazil healthcare system is fine if you are rich and terrible if you are poor. Plus they have the largest city in the Southern Hemisphere and some of the most dense urban areas in the world such as the Rio favelas. It won't be pretty if they are as badly affected by COVID as Europe.
Sorry, am I being dumb. To what do those numbers refer?
lane
Veteran
From what I have seen estimates are based on areas which have conducted testing and results vary quite widely.
midlife
Guru
Look like hospital Covid stats,
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Ro dictates the doubling time for transmission, but also for deaths. So it can be estimated directly from death numbers, which are more reliable than case numbers, as they're unaffected by testing capacity or policy.
