Coronavirus outbreak

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MrGrumpy

Huge Member
Location
Fly Fifer
My Mrs is a podiatrist (private ) currently closed her business down till June hoping to be able to reopen. However........ having real problems sourcing proper PPE without being charged through the nose. Hope things settle down next month or so and she can get what she needs. No way would she work without it now!
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
My Mrs is a podiatrist (private ) currently closed her business down till June hoping to be able to reopen. However........ having real problems sourcing proper PPE without being charged through the nose. Hope things settle down next month or so and she can get what she needs. No way would she work without it now!

In general, despite what other people said about salons still being open, many salons closed early because they couldn't get any PPE. That was in the days when it was much more plentiful than today, unfortunately. Pharmacies are having a lot of problems with PPE currently.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
One reason the UKgov only counts hospital deaths, they're trying to hide the true numbers, which may be 5 times the official figure.

As of 19.04.2020 the official UK death toll is 15464. If thee claims in the article above are correct, that would put the actual figure at over 70 000. The Italian death toll is 23227 and Spain is 20043. Germany, which does include care homes, is currently reporting 4924 deaths.

No amount of blaming people for not following the guidelines can cover this.

[Edit: Looks like my maths was wrong, not for the first time, so it's not great but not as horrendous as I thought, thanks @Rusty Nails for the correction in simple terms...]

The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.
 
The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.

I'd thoroughly misunderstood the article anyway, as pointed out upthread.

Nonetheless, only registering hospital deaths allows for some serious fudging of the figures, and if there's one thing this government is really good at, it's fudging figures.
 
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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Nonetheless, only registering hospital deaths allows for some serious fudging of the figures, and if there's on thing this government is really good at, it's fudging figures.

There's a bit of evidence that the deaths in some european countries deaths in nursing homes is between a third and half the hospital deaths. Some even reckon at a parity with.

Whatever the UK implements now with care homes is too late for wave-1. Any positives are sheer damn luck or hard work by individuals workers and care homes. Of course there is the grim possibility that the virus will just permanently belt around care homes, even if outside homes we have smaller 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves spaced out.
 

MrGrumpy

Huge Member
Location
Fly Fifer
In general, despite what other people said about salons still being open, many salons closed early because they couldn't get any PPE. That was in the days when it was much more plentiful than today, unfortunately. Pharmacies are having a lot of problems with PPE currently.

So did my Mrs it was just too risky to continue at the time !
 
The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.
not questioning you - But I have often wondered how they calculate R0 without contact testing ?
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Monday 20th April

Tested positive to date - 417
Tested negative to date - 1145
Confirmed cases in hospital - 71
Confirmed cases discharged - 181
Confirmed cases in ICU - 9
Total deaths - 92

I think that around April 8th ICU was 75% full and you could feel the pressure, now it's less than 50% and it looks like the additionally created ICU areas will not be needed. I have not heard of an "unusual" death so far, a young person or a healthy adult etc. They never give a stat for staff who are or who have been confirmed cases?
 

lane

Veteran
The number of hospital deaths is a simple and time consistent proxy measure of the virus wild in the general population. In particular, it gives a measure of R0 in the general population.

Why hospital deaths only and how is it used to calculate R0?
 

stowie

Legendary Member
Some light relief in an unremittingly grim month. Another country showing how social distancing is done when serious and essential matters need to be attended to.:eek: If the rest of the world needed a test platform for forecasts and modelling they have it.

View: https://youtu.be/jNIbMHWUyfs


Brazil government operates on a similar system to the US. The states have a lot of power to manage their affairs, including health emergencies.

Most governors in Brazil have ignored Bolsonaro, in the same way most US states have ignored Trump.

My family are spread around Brazil, but mostly in Goias state (near Brasilia in the centre of Brasil) and Santa Catarina (in the South). All have been in lockdown since March time. In Goias state, the small town where my mother in law lives self-isolated themselves entirely by having the local police shut down the main roads into the town - it generally gets a lot of weekend tourists from the state capital and they banned all travel.

Balneario Camboriú in Santa Catarina is normally heaving at this time of the year with tourists from all over South America. It is currently deserted. You can see videos of this on youtube - I have one below



My family who live there were saying that anyone caught on the beach were escorted back home. Caught twice and they were taken to police station where they were fined (with the police taking hours for the paperwork to really make life miserable..)

All foreigners (estrangeiros) into Brazil are banned currently unless they have residency visas or some other emergency cases, so even on a federal level they are taking it seriously.

Bolsonaro's popularity rose in January mainly due to better economy, but it has absolutely slumped in recent weeks. He is desperately trying to disassociate himself from the measures in an attempt to gain more popularity.

Brazil has escaped so far the worst of the Coronavirus, but I fear this won't continue. And Brazil healthcare system is fine if you are rich and terrible if you are poor. Plus they have the largest city in the Southern Hemisphere and some of the most dense urban areas in the world such as the Rio favelas. It won't be pretty if they are as badly affected by COVID as Europe.
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Monday 20th April

Tested positive to date - 417
Tested negative to date - 1145
Confirmed cases in hospital - 71
Confirmed cases discharged - 181
Confirmed cases in ICU - 9
Total deaths - 92

I think that around April 8th ICU was 75% full and you could feel the pressure, now it's less than 50% and it looks like the additionally created ICU areas will not be needed. I have not heard of an "unusual" death so far, a young person or a healthy adult etc. They never give a stat for staff who are or who have been confirmed cases?

Sorry, am I being dumb. To what do those numbers refer?
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
From what I have seen estimates are based on areas which have conducted testing and results vary quite widely.

Ro dictates the doubling time for transmission, but also for deaths. So it can be estimated directly from death numbers, which are more reliable than case numbers, as they're unaffected by testing capacity or policy.
 
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