Coronavirus outbreak

[Slick]

@Slick there was some discussion about infected people confirmed with a test. The Whitty felt that the biggest gain would be following WHO and moving the first node from 7 to 10 days to isolate, which is now the guidelines. There was commentary elsewhere that this might mean better compliance with 14 days for second nodes, which was interesting.

I have to go back to uni in September, the uni has an early confirmed UK case. It's mad thinking that the testing was so limited then the case in the middle of a gigantic uni building could have spread it to dozens of people. Or maybe they didn't, we have no idea.

That is interesting, I will have a look.

The uni will almost certainly be unrecognisable from the one you left in March. I'm now trying to prepare an FE college to not only comply with the rules but make sure everyone who visits is safe and we don't end up on the news.

The 27 cases from Aberdeen have now risen to 35 and bars across Aberdeen are voluntarily closing down and staff asked to self isolate, although to be fair, no staff has so far tested positive which tells me their measures are working.

 

[tom73]

Factoring in compliance is a definite issue. It hasn't raised its head up here yet, but it's only a matter of time before some knuckle dragger refuses to do the right thing.

Australia are having to deal with this at the moment. They’ve got a small but hard core of people who just don’t want to do anything. Even as cases are on the rise rapidly not isolating even when positive is a big issue.
Over here PHE have to power to forcibly impose isolation for14 days if someone is deemed a danger to public health if they refuse a test. After 14 days if they again refuse they can extend in another 14 days.
Don’t think it‘s been used to date.

Without some real social science research feeding into government and they take note of it. All they’ve taken notice of to date is “lockdown fatigue“ which is a totally made up idea. without any we can’t really begin to understand why compliance fails or head off any growing none compliance before it gets a real problem.

 

[tom73]

Current testing and contact tracing is inadequate to prevent a second wave of coronavirus after schools in the UK reopen, scientists have warned.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-5...ews/health&link_location=live-reporting-story

Dido however says it is working I think she needs to look at Blackburn then.
They say it‘s too slow and not tracing enough. So set up a local service to do a better job.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engla...oronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

A tale of 2 restaurants today. At lunch I waited in a socially distanced queue into the restaurant which had taken half the tables and chairs out and only half were occupied. My name and telephone number were taken. All staff wore masks and were constantly cleaning. The bill was a surprise as I'd forgotten the 50% off. All in all, a pleasant experience.

Dinner was in an Indian Restaurant. When I went in, there were 4 couples evenly spaced around the edge of the room so I got a table in a corner at a safe distance. Nobody took my contact details and only 1 waiter wore a mask - pulled down over his chin. No gloves either. After I ordered, groups of workmen started to arrive. By the time they numbered over a dozen, the restaurant was getting quite full. Added to which one woman at a table not far away had been coughing persistently and not covering her mouth.

Bear in mind this is Aberdeen where there's been a surge.

I asked for my main course to go as a takeaway and paid the bill - no discount applied.

Think I'll steer clear of restaurants for a while

 

[Slick]

A tale of 2 restaurants today. At lunch I waited in a socially distanced queue into the restaurant which had taken half the tables and chairs out and only half were occupied. My name and telephone number were taken. All staff wore masks and were constantly cleaning. The bill was a surprise as I'd forgotten the 50% off. All in all, a pleasant experience.

Dinner was in an Indian Restaurant. When I went in, there were 4 couples evenly spaced around the edge of the room so I got a table in a corner at a safe distance. Nobody took my contact details and only 1 waiter wore a mask - pulled down over his chin. No gloves either. After I ordered, groups of workmen started to arrive. By the time they numbered over a dozen, the restaurant was getting quite full. Added to which one woman at a table not far away had been coughing persistently and not covering her mouth.

Bear in mind this is Aberdeen where there's been a surge.

I asked for my main course to go as a takeaway and paid the bill - no discount applied.

Think I'll steer clear of restaurants for a while

I have come to the same conclusion.

What's happening in Aberdeen, reports on tonight's news that pubs are voluntarily shutting down to try and avoid a local lockdown?

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

I have come to the same conclusion.

What's happening in Aberdeen, reports on tonight's news that pubs are voluntarily shutting down to try and avoid a local lockdown?

Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.

 

[Slick]

Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.

Maybe it was sensationalised a bit on the news but it didn't sound great.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

 

[Rusty Nails]

Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

It's interesting looking at the graph of new infections. The choice of axis scales can make a huge difference to the perception of the growth rates.

 

[johnblack]

Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

No good news allowed, no alternative view other than we must lockdown forever is deemed sufficient. My guess is that this will be torn to pieces.

 

[Rocky]

Maybe things are currently not as bad as some sources think:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

No good news allowed, no alternative view other than we must lockdown forever is deemed sufficient. My guess is that this will be torn to pieces.

The increase in cases, early in July, preceded the spike in testing at the end. I don't think he's reading the graphs right, and has used the highly sophisticated method of getting a ruler out and drawing a straight line.

All the DHSC data is currently here: https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

Meanwhile ONS estimates a substantial increase in community cases, using methods which are not dependent on the number of tests.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020

@srw has already debunked Heneghan's dodgy stats........sorry.

 

[srw]

@srw has already debunked Heneghan's dodgy stats........sorry.

I wouldn't say I've debunked them.

I think he's drawing the wrong conclusion, and however uncertain the ONS stats are they're the best we've got.

 

[Rocky]

I wouldn't say I've debunked them.

I think he's drawing the wrong conclusion, and however uncertain the ONS stats are they're the best we've got.

I was rather taken with your reference to the arbitrary placing of the ruler. It also looks like he's selectively chosen the data to prove his point, rather than looking at all of the data and deciding what they actually mean.

 

[oldwheels]

Dunno. The butcher in Turriff was telling me the locals had been pretty blase about the whole thing, regarding it as a city problem. But then the news broke about Aberdeen and he noticed the number of folk wearing masks shot up.

Where I am on an island nobody is blase. Mask wearing is about 99% in the local population. I will not start on about tourists again as that is another matter.

 

[pawl]

A tale of 2 restaurants today. At lunch I waited in a socially distanced queue into the restaurant which had taken half the tables and chairs out and only half were occupied. My name and telephone number were taken. All staff wore masks and were constantly cleaning. The bill was a surprise as I'd forgotten the 50% off. All in all, a pleasant experience.

Dinner was in an Indian Restaurant. When I went in, there were 4 couples evenly spaced around the edge of the room so I got a table in a corner at a safe distance. Nobody took my contact details and only 1 waiter wore a mask - pulled down over his chin. No gloves either. After I ordered, groups of workmen started to arrive. By the time they numbered over a dozen, the restaurant was getting quite full. Added to which one woman at a table not far away had been coughing persistently and not covering her mouth.

Bear in mind this is Aberdeen where there's been a surge.

I asked for my main course to go as a takeaway and paid the bill - no discount applied.

Think I'll steer clear of restaurants for a while

A few of my relatives and friends are telling me how safe it know is I will not yet venture into restaurants I am of an age that is beyond are beloved Boris hit list by good few years If the risk is allegedly small it is still a risk I am not prepared to take.