Coronavirus outbreak

[PK99]

Everyone is fed up, that's no excuse for no obeying the rules.

I think a major mistake was made in the UK at the beginning with the 500,000 possible deaths or whatever it was that was modeled.

Ferguson, he of the 500,000 prediction has a consistent track record of over predicting:

* 2001 Now discredited Contiguous culling in Foot & Mouth epidemic based on his modeling
* 2002 Mad Cow Disease up to 50,000 deaths predicted vs actual 177
* 2005 Bird flu prediction 200 million worldwide vs actual of 282
* 2009 Swine flu prediction 65,000uk deaths vs 457 actual
* 2020 500,000 Covid-19 deaths predicted

 

[classic33]

Doesn't he realise that it's supposed to cover both mouth and nose?

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

Sturgeon has got some significant things wrong but the effect of strong, decisive and timely action are starting to show themselves in even South Lanarkshire, the worst hit of Scotland’s local authorities. The English Government should take note !

 

[IaninSheffield]

Ferguson, he of the 500,000 prediction has a consistent track record of over predicting:

* 2001 Now discredited Contiguous culling in Foot & Mouth epidemic based on his modeling
* 2002 Mad Cow Disease up to 50,000 deaths predicted vs actual 177
* 2005 Bird flu prediction 200 million worldwide vs actual of 282
* 2009 Swine flu prediction 65,000uk deaths vs 457 actual
* 2020 500,000 Covid-19 deaths predicted

Are they 'over' predictions though? Or predictions made on the assumption that no control measures would be put in place?
BBC

Back in March a report by Prof Neil Ferguson, who worked as a government adviser in the early stages of the pandemic, predicted that 500,000 could die if the government did not take action.

The modelling predicted very high numbers of deaths for both the UK and the US, but only "in the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour".

Shortly after the UK went into lockdown Prof Ferguson said he was "reasonably confident" the UK death toll would not exceed 20,000.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

When it turned out to be inaccurate

It was accurate

 

[kingrollo]

Are they 'over' predictions though? Or predictions made on the assumption that no control measures would be put in place?
BBC

Well he got that bit right then !!!

 

[kingrollo]

Eat out to help out - nice one
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...t-to-help-out-had-on-infection-rates-12118285

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Eat out to help out - nice one
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...t-to-help-out-had-on-infection-rates-12118285

It's just so obvious. I saw it in Newcastle when it started - you couldn't get into a restaurant for love nor money Mon-Wed because they were rammed.

Even without the scheme, I was in Aviemore the other day and thought I'd pop into my favourite cafe for the lentil soup. One look in the steamed up windows showing most tables taken and diners rubbing elbows made me turn around and get a bag of chips from the chippy to eat in the car. Why do folk think the virus will ignore them if they're sitting down eating?

 

[johnblack]

Ferguson, he of the 500,000 prediction has a consistent track record of over predicting:

* 2001 Now discredited Contiguous culling in Foot & Mouth epidemic based on his modeling
* 2002 Mad Cow Disease up to 50,000 deaths predicted vs actual 177
* 2005 Bird flu prediction 200 million worldwide vs actual of 282
* 2009 Swine flu prediction 65,000uk deaths vs 457 actual
* 2020 500,000 Covid-19 deaths predicted

So much this, there is absolutely no comeback on his crystal ball predictions.

he just points out that action was taken to avert the crisis, so we will never know. Absolute charlatan.

 

[the snail]

So much this, there is absolutely no comeback on his crystal ball predictions.

he just points out that action was taken to avert the crisis, so we will never know. Absolute charlatan.

He predicted upto 500,000 with no action, 20,000 with strict isolation. We've had 50,000 deaths, currently heading into a 2nd wave which could be worse than the first. So we're well within the predictions from his models. How accurate would you expect predictions to be?

 

[tom73]

About sums up the current situation
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...second-wave-of-covid-19-getting-freedom-wrong

 

[tom73]

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/pol...e-who-died-in-first-world-war-says-icn-chief/
Based on figures from only 44 countries the number of Nurses to have died at date is now equal to the total deaths in WW1
About 10% of cases globally are believed to be among healthcare workers

The ones we once clapped for are now once again thrown to the dogs both politically and socially. All because we want our "normal" back and go to the pub with freedom also come's collective social responsibility. The longer this middle ground fudge continues the deeper we end up in mire. It's simple mask up, wash up , distance , reduce your bubble and stay home when you can. it's going to be a long winter bunker down do what you can to stay safe.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

View: https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1322148489627897857

 

[SpokeyDokey]

About sums up the current situation
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...second-wave-of-covid-19-getting-freedom-wrong

As an aside this did amuse me from the article:

But in neither country has the policy response to the pandemic become so mired in such intensely political argument.

From one of the major Left-wing crap stirring sources in the UK.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

As an aside this did amuse me from the article:

But in neither country has the policy response to the pandemic become so mired in such intensely political argument.

From one of the major Left-wing crap stirring sources in the UK.

And it also uses ‘UK’ and ‘England’ as if they mean the same thing.