Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

More from Belgium. TV speculation is that they will unlock most social restrictions (including concerts, cinemas, fairs, and so on) after 9 June if there are fewer than 500 ICU cases (from about 11m population) and 80% of covid-vulnerable people are vaccinated. However, work restrictions such as teleworking and work bubbles will remain in place.

I do wonder about those weak-looking conditions, but favouring social relaxation while keeping workplace restrictions seems different to what I have seen elsewhere, especially here in England where workplace policing seems very lax now.

 

[Unkraut]

33.3% of the population have now had their first injection, including yours truly on Sunday evening. All done nice and efficiently, very little bureaucracy.

My neighbours were also done on Sunday in a different town, and as all three of us spent yesterday pottering in the garden, my boy reckons the microchip we were injected with must have been funded by a garden centre consortium.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Second increase in the number of cases (7 day average) for second day running, and a bigger jump today of 12%. I think the impact of the easing of restrictions is having an impact with more easing to come expect to see continued growth in cases.

Lockdown 3, or the population get a grip and take responsibility? I am afraid the people have to realise that the easing of restrictions is guidance to a new level of maximum interaction, not an instruction and minimum level of interaction.

So long as the increase in cases doesn't lead to significantly higher hospitalization and death (or a nasty variant) it is not necessarily a problem. It does concern me though, after all we have been through to see cases rising. I do however definitely enjoy the increased freedoms.

Forgive if this seems a bit nerdy, but the last two days' increases both reflect the set of 4 low case numbers reported over the bank holiday weekend (remember those!) dropping out of the average. The 7-day average was ticking along flat at around 2250 before those low (test) figures 1,2,3,and 4 May started being included in the 7-day average. And the 8 May 7-day average is 2270.
If the relaxation which happened on 12 Apr was going to have an effect on the case numbers, we would have seen this within a fortnight. We didn't: the 7-day average dropped steadilyish from 2667 (12 Apr) to 2258 (26 Apr).
Having said that. it's probable that cases will increase from 22 May onwards. But I think that might be termed an 'increase' rather than sustained growth and in early June, the percentage vaccinated will be over 60% of the population (and of those 35% will have had their second dose). Edit: Still likely to be a 'third wave' of infections though, magnitude and timeline uncertain, but the resulting serious disease and in extremis deaths will be a magnitude less because of the much reduced IFR because of increasing proportion vaccinated.

05-05-2021	2,144
04-05-2021	1,946
03-05-2021	1,649
02-05-2021	1,671
01-05-2021	1,907
30-04-2021	2,381
29-04-2021	2,445

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

 

[lane]

Thanks for the explanation @Ajax Bay - does that mean the reduction in 7 day rate we have seen over the previous few days was also wrong?

 

[mjr]

Johnson allows enquiry in this parliamentary session https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...blic-inquiry-into-covid-begin-this-parliament

Silver lining: public violence injuries down to record low https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...fewest-ever-violence-related-injuries-in-2020

 

[Ajax Bay]

Not 'wrong' @lane , just need to beware of taking too much notice of the noise.
Here's a graph of 'daily reported' cases from 13 Apr to 4 May with the 7-day average (orange) and 14-day average (grey) superimposed. Both the averages include the latest day reported (11 May). For the last 10 days, the 14-day is flat around 2160 (plus or minus 1%). We can all see that there's no 'signal' connected with the 12 Apr Phase 2 of 'roadmap' changes, nor of schools returning.
HTH

 

[mjr]

Not 'wrong' @lane , just need to beware of taking too much notice of the noise.

I suggest a Bank Holiday weekend effect may be a confounding factor, rather than noise.

Looking at the 14 day trend is a good way to lessen its impact, though.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Not 'wrong' @lane , just need to beware of taking too much notice of the noise.
Here's a graph of 'daily reported' cases from 13 Apr to 4 May with the 7-day average (orange) and 14-day average (grey) superimposed. Both the averages include the latest day reported (11 May). For the last 10 days, the 14-day is flat around 2160 (plus or minus 1%). We can all see that there's no 'signal' connected with the 12 Apr Phase 2 of 'roadmap' changes, nor of schools returning.
HTH
View attachment 588336

I think current concern isn't so much about the national picture, but the local areas which are driving this. The plateau/small rise is driven by a very small number of local areas.

here's Bolton, which currently accounts for something like 5% of all COVID cases in the UK (!!)

I believe associated with the Indian variant.

*If* the variant transmissibility is what's driving this, then we have a big problem, as we can expect the whole country to do the same (as with the Kent variant), and we're in a vaccination vs virus race.

*If* this is driven by local factors (workplaces, places of worship, large numbers of travellers from India, low local vaccination rates) then it's a trivial local problem.

We'll see - hopefully latter.

 

[lane]

And where I live which is now the highest after 100+ cases in one local school!

 

[matticus]

And where I live which is now the highest after 100+ cases in one local school!

It's in the nature of infectious diseases for cases to be localised Hopefully the authoritayz will find the best way to stamp this one out, as obviously localised outbreaks can spread to something more major ...

 

[Unkraut]

I have just seen on the local news that Karlsruhe has set up a testing station exclusively for cyclists. It's located on one of the main roads into town, and will be open from 6:30 to 18:30. The city has a reputation for being cycling friendly.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Karlsruhe has set up a testing station exclusively for cyclists. It's located on one of the main roads into town, and will be open from 6:30 to 18:30. The city has a reputation for being cycling friendly.

When you say 'cycling friendly' I assume that's your euphemism for ignoring motorists' whines and revving of engines in the road half blocked by this cyclist testing station.

 

[Ajax Bay]

*If* this [significant increase in B.1.617.2 variant cases] is driven by local factors (workplaces, places of worship, large numbers of travellers from India, low local vaccination rates) then it's a trivial local problem.

Last year politicians (eg N Sturgeon) correctly called out Eid celebrations as being a potential problem. Families travel and congregate to break the fast and to celebrate - it means so much to believers.
Eid falls at sunset today (13 May). I hope faith leaders have shown leadership in the communities where there are outbreaks, and pointed out to their followers/community that no inter-household meeting can legally take place indoors.
PS It was b***y cold in the pub garden / marquee last night.

 

[Unkraut]

When you say 'cycling friendly' I assume that's your euphemism for ignoring motorists' whines and revving of engines in the road half blocked by this cyclist testing station.

They've sensibly put it by what looks like a cycle track, away from the traffic. Karlsruhe was voted the most cycling friendly city in Germany not long ago. The Mayor is very proud of it!

 

[mjr]

They've sensibly put it by what looks like a cycle track, away from the traffic. Karlsruhe was voted the most cycling friendly city in Germany not long ago. The Mayor is very proud of it!

View attachment 588549

What took them so long? There has long been a test centre by cycle route NCN1 at Lynnsport in King's Lynn. As a bonus, no politicians are posing outside it