COVID Vaccine !

[roubaixtuesday]

I feel we are now starting to see a continuation of the "UK bad...EU good" narrative on this forum.

As a dedicated remoaner, I certainly don't see it that way.

I think there's not enough information to judge fault against any of the parties involved, though some of the things coming from the EU in particular seem problematic.

Some observations:

1. AZ seem to be in a very difficult position, taking a whole lot of flak despite having only entered this as a not for profit exercise, in massive contrast to the other companies.

2. Cool heads are needed. There is insufficient vaccine to meet all needs at the moment. Expecting this to be be played out on a simple "this is what the contract says" basis is hopelessly naive, as huge numbers of lives are at stake, and govts, not contracts, control borders.

3. Ending up as a UK/EU row will damage both parties in the end.

4. None of us here know what's actually been agreed by who.

5. It *appears* that UK govt paid for a uk supply chain, so understandable that uk govt will wish to insist on uk supply for uk.

6. It *appears* that early uk supply was actually sourced from EU due to uk technical problems, so understandable that EU now try to insist on reciprocation.

(neither 5 nor 6 are certain, but seem to have been reliably reported)

7. Far more people will die overall if low risk uk people are vaccinated ahead of high risk eu people.

8. Very difficult, probably impossible, for UK govt politically to allow significant vaccine quantity to go to EU. Attempts to use force majeure by EU to enforce this only make it less likely. However even small quantities for humane purposes may make things feel much better.

9. EU are probably in a weak position, or they wouldn't need to be making such a loud fuss with implied threats of preventing exports.

10. Whoever in the German govt was leaking false information on vaccine efficacy in an apparent attempt to damage AZ was acting despicably and against public health interest of the entire world.

True leadership would be trying to find the best way forward. Imaginative and generous proposals to make this a joint enterprise rather than a stand off could include:
- mobilising the currently unused AZ US supply chain (I don't know how practical that could be)
- agreeing at least the same quantity of vaccine back that was previously sent to us
- scientific/ technical task force from uk to help struggling EU factories

These might make little or even no difference to supply, but make this episode a bridge to future cooperation rather than a route to further conflict between UK/EU.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Do we think the per-shot price difference has anything to do with the delivery priority?

I think you need to look at the big picture on pricing rather than the details.

AZ seems to be at ~10-20% of price quoted by others. To keep on coming back to insinuations that they're driven by profit here is palpably absurd given the market rate is at least 5x what they're charging.

You're flogging a dead horse.

 

[mjr]

To keep on coming back to insinuations that they're driven by profit here is palpably absurd [...] You're flogging a dead horse.

I think you need to check your imagination. I insinuated no such thing. Even non-profit, surely it is possible that someone might be trying to minimise costs? So delaying shots sold for €2 instead of those sold for €3 or more would be an understandable decision, even if probably not the most ethical one.

I still think AZ probably listed the UK manufacturing sites in the EU contract. Early UK supplies from EU sites makes it seem like the opposite is true.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think you need to check your imagination. I insinuated no such thing. Even non-profit, surely it is possible that someone might be trying to minimise costs? So delaying shots sold for €2 instead of those sold for €3 or more would be an understandable decision, even if probably not the most ethical one.

That price is still >5x below market, and you're entirely in the realms of speculation over any uk/eu differential.

That AZ would choose to antagonise the EU (AZ EU sales 2019 $4.35 billion) over a marginal price difference (AZ stated gross margin 2019 is 80%) on a politically red hot product is ridiculous. In fact I need a new thesaurus - it's absurd, fantastical, almost delusional!

Honestly, look elsewhere to try and understand this. As I said, I certainly don't know enough to come to any judgements but it *is* abundantly clear that short term profit isn't a motive.

 

[rockyroller]

boss man told me about a loophole to getting a shot, worked for his Secretary, but by time I got there, they closed the loophole. oh well, just gotta wait my turn, like everybody else, right?

 

[mjr]

Honestly, look elsewhere to try and understand this. As I said, I certainly don't know enough to come to any judgements but it *is* abundantly clear that short term profit isn't a motive.

And as I wrote, I am not saying otherwise. If you "don't know enough" to reply to the actual questions then please stop arguing so vociferously against points that I am not making, seemingly to imply that I was.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And as I wrote, I am not saying otherwise. If you "don't know enough" to reply to the actual questions then please stop arguing so vociferously against points that I am not making, seemingly to imply that I was.

You keep on writing about price and profit as a motive. In every post. If you don't think its about price, then why you do that is rather mysterious.

We don't know everything, but do know enough to be very sure pricing/profit is not driving this.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Johnson may have been taking my advice...


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1354775961095589890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[Grant Fondo]

It is clear that the EU was slow to act in ordering the vaccines. Whether this was due to its bureaucratic nature and the decision to act as a whole rather than allow its members to act individually, as it did with the various lockdown regimes is something that could well be a factor. There is an element, now that criticism of the slowness of the vaccination programme is starting to come from its members, of the EU leaders wanting to deflect that criticism, and the UK is now a convenient target.

It is possible that, just for once in this pandemic, the UK approach on this issue has been quite successful, but sadly I feel we are now starting to see a continuation of the "UK bad...EU good" narrative on this forum.

Ok fair point, so no more EU baiting from me. Just been watching EU Spokesman Eric Mamer on the news, sounds like he is trying to deflect his vaccine roll-out issues our way?

 

[Ajax Bay]

New paper shows white people in England aged 80+ are being vaccinated at twice the rate of black people, and rates in deprived neighbourhoods are lagging behind less deprived areas and it's growing.

https://opensafely.org/research/2021/covid-vaccine-coverage/
Do you think that that disparity is because of refusals in the BAME communities (hopefully with a change of mind now that 7M have been vaccinated with minimal reports of side effects of any consequence - if the concern is 'not me first; after you, Tom')?
What might be the reasons for the low uptake in less deprived areas? Hesitancy? Mobility/transport? Proximity (to GP/centre? Letter opening and/or reading ability)?
How can the programme be tweaked to maximise the availability and take-up in those over 80s/70s from the most deprived postcodes?

 

[mjr]

You keep on writing about price and profit as a motive. In every post.

Easy to check by looking at my previous five posts:
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/covid-vaccine.267960/post-6291143 no mention of profit.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/covid-vaccine.267960/post-6291113 only mentions non-profit and even that is in reply to your misunderstanding.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/covid-vaccine.267960/post-6291052 no mention of profit.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/covid-vaccine.267960/post-6291047 only mentions profit when challenging your apparent misunderstanding of what selling on a "no profit" basis means. And you didn't answer.
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/covid-vaccine.267960/post-6291030 no mention of profit.

You seemed to be misinterpreting things badly and now escalated to making obviously false statements about my posts instead of stopping as asked

 

[mjr]

Ok fair point, so no more EU baiting from me. Just been watching EU Spokesman Eric Mamer on the news, sounds like he is trying to deflect his vaccine roll-out issues our way?

What did he say? Which news, even?

No copy of that statement yet on the EC website, but there is https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_21_267 by the Health Commissioner which focuses on criticising AZ not the UK.

It also confirms "four production plants named in the Advance Purchase Agreement. Two are located in the EU and two are located in UK."

That makes it look like AZ might not have a contractual leg to stand on if they refuse to supply the EU from UK plants, doesn't it?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

@mjr my final word on this. I will quote your words on price, profit and your other words insinuating the motive behind this is profit or pricing.

They are in every single one of your posts. My bold throughout.

I expect they will have listed as many plants as possible in order to make themselves look dependable and keep the prices up.

It is an accounting trick to some extent. You just pay your Chiefs more and don't give them profit-related pay and hey presto, non profit.

Do we think the per-shot price difference has anything to do with the delivery priority?

So delaying shots sold for €2 instead of those sold for €3 or more would be an understandable decision, even if probably not the most ethical one.

I'll finally note one last time that AZ prices, as far as they are known, are a small fraction of those charged by others.

I'm done on this issue and won't be responding further.

 

[mjr]

@mjr my final word on this. I will quote your words on price, profit and your other words insinuating the motive behind this is profit or pricing.

And now this is trying to change the claim that I wrote about "profit or pricing" instead of the "and" previously claimed. That's why all of those were not about a profit motive, except for this one:

It is an accounting trick to some extent. You just pay your Chiefs more and don't give them profit-related pay and hey presto, non profit.

This was a general point about some people misunderstanding what "no profit" means, not directly about the AZ vaccine.

I'll finally note one last time that AZ prices, as far as they are known, are a small fraction of those charged by others.

Yet again repeating a point that literally no-one is contesting in what looks like an attempt to imply I disagree!

I'm done on this issue and won't be responding further.

At least this ends the horrible stream of misinterpretations and Aunt Sallys, then.

 

[Grant Fondo]

Only side effects are a floating-in-space feeling before plummeting back to earth.