COVID Vaccine !

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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
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Logopolis
Possibly a bit misleading. I believe the Isle of White has quite an elderly population so maybe why it's high. The area in Nottingham with 4.82% actually has Trent University in the title - that is an area with quite lot of young people - most of whom probably aren't living there currently.

That's what demographics means, but the virus isn't bothered. It wasn't bothered in Manaus. It'll rip through these areas very quickly if things are opened up too soon and it takes a hold.

Is the future rich, rural areas with high vaccination as a % of the population areas having low cases and horrid outbreaks in urban enclaves?

Another way of looking at it, is that you may need to add 2-3 months to where we are for areas to get similar benefits experienced by other areas.
 
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lane

Veteran
Doubt there are many students in Nottingham who haven't had the virus! That's why the rate per 100,000 went up to 1000 after the students arrived back in Nottingham in the autumn. In other words it has already ripped through that area.
 

marinyork

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Location
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Doubt there are many students in Nottingham who haven't had the virus! That's why the rate per 100,000 went up to 1000 after the students arrived back in Nottingham in the autumn. In other words it has already ripped through that area.

Now who's being misleading? That's a bit like someone saying to you that don't worry your offspring don't need a vaccine because in Nottingham at the start of the academic year the cases went up to above 8000 per 100,000 for 15-19 year olds.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Now who's being misleading? That's a bit like someone saying to you that don't worry your offspring don't need a vaccine because in Nottingham at the start of the academic year the cases went up to above 8000 per 100,000 for 15-19 year olds.
So 92% fresh meat ready for infection, then? (assuming that is cumulative cases)
 

marinyork

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Logopolis
So 92% fresh meat ready for infection, then? (assuming that is cumulative cases)

Cumulatively over the first camel hump of the second wave it will have been huge. 15%? 25%? 50%? These are possible numbers from elsewhere in the world/UK. The rates in the age group went up to above 400 per 400,000 in the second hump of the camel though and that was when everything was shut down so it's not a fair comparison. So what would happen if it'd have been a proper start of term? I'm a bit sceptical.

Interestingly Nottingham like many other areas shows green shoots emerging for the 75-79 year olds. Or sometimes in other age groups. In other words "lockdown" + vaccines may be working better than lockdown + no vaccine. This green shoot effect is seen in many areas. This is Nottingham:-

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For comparison, this is Brighton and shows that you cannot assume it's the same in every area (chosen for young population and in the South East and good old B117 going wild):-
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And East Devon where it was revealed some stonkingly high %s have been vaccinated (other factors at play)
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Havering:-
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lane

Veteran
So 92% fresh meat ready for infection, then? (assuming that is cumulative cases)

I am assuming those figures are based on tests, then I would imagine among that age group the actual number asymptomatic or just didn't get a test would be quite high. Also i don't think they are cumulative; the 1,000 for the populations as a whole in Nottingham was not cumulative and so 8,000 among the students sounds about right as non cumulative.

It's a bit of a side track really. The point I was making is that the 5% vaccinated figure - for an area where the vast majority are students - is really no surprise and nothing to be alarmed about. As a side issue - quite a significant proportion of that community also happen to have some immunity so it's even less of an issue.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
That's a bit like someone saying to you that don't worry your offspring don't need a vaccine because in Nottingham at the start of the academic year the cases went up to above 8000 per 100,000 for 15-19 year olds.
My (sensible) daughter started at Exeter uni in September and was one of about 4000 18-23 year olds who tested positive in Devon in the first 21 days. There were masses of uni provided general testing as well as, quickly, access to testing for those who developed symptoms.
But the reason someone might give for saying "don't worry your offspring doesn't need a vaccine" or at least "there's no rush" is that, in 2020 of the 674 15-19 year olds who died, only 11 died of C19 (death certificate). Obviously that's 11 too many but not enough to disagree with the person giving that advice. Unless the young person has other health conditions which make them more vulnerable. In which case (if in the UHC categories so in Gp 6) they'll have received a vaccine by 8 March.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Hospitalisation. Long covid. Your repeated attempts to divert the issue and constantly go on about deaths will not work.
Sorry, what was 'the issue' from which I was "attempting to divert".
Are there data on the 'hospitalisation' rates for under 20s? Entirely content to draw on those. Regrettably data on deaths have good quality and are accessible. For 'Long Covid' - on the 'to do' list. I suspect the data are not split by age group.
Thank you for "constantly" sharing 'death maps'.
 
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