COVID Vaccine !

[newts]

From Dr Campbell's recent podcast he suggests that the number of thromboelic events reported post AZ Vaccination are much lower than than normally expected across the general population (data fron 3 million tests). Once investigated further it may prove that risk of clotting is slightly reduced by the AZ vaccine.

 

[Bazzer]

Some Health Authorities are ahead of plans, or at least were until the shortage announcement. Bury where my sister lives, yesterday invited those 45 and older to make appointments. Brother in law, who is 50, has his first jab on Monday and has had the appointment for at least a week.

 

[Ajax Bay]

All over 50s should be offered vaccine two weeks ahead of timetable. Surprisingly made possible by a large shipment of vaccine from India.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56407251

You would have thought there'd be better, closer places for India to send batches of Ox-AZ vaccine than here.
My estimate is that sufficient first jabs for JCVI Gps 1-9 (over 50s plus plus) - 32M - will be delivered into arms by Easter Sunday (4 April).
The 32M assumes high 100% acceptance, btw. Every 3% below that is a million less (with which we can start the high 40s).

Bump in the UK dual carriageway, I fear. Should still get to first jabs for JCVI Gps 1-9 (over 50s plus plus) - 32M by mid April; and enough for the second jabs for those who had their first jab in January. 529,000+ jabs reported yesterday, including 95k second doses.

 

[Pale Rider]

and enough for the second jabs for those who had their first jab in January.

I shall be cross if the poxy EU messes up my second jab, although I tend to think the second one is not so important.

I also support the policy of giving as many people as possible a jab, so wouldn't be bothered if my second was cancelled in order for someone else to get their first.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I speculated, back in the New Year when the JCVI revision increased the gap to the second dose to 12 weeks, that consideration would be given to extending the gap still further once more data became available on the effectiveness of one dose (after 21 days, say) and the extent to which that effectiveness waned.
Extending the first dose/second dose gap would allow many millions more people to receive a first dose in April and May to complement and align with the relaxation of restrictions (allowed by: even lower daily case and prevalence levels, very low C19 hospital bed occupancy and no emergence of VoC in UK).
I concluded back then that although we might be 'led by the science', that factor would be trumped by the communications issue and the adverse effect such dislocation of expectation would generate both in those waiting for their second jab and more widely in the UK's population - in terms of vaccine positivity. There would be criticism along the lines of order, counter-order and 'disorder' too at political cost.
The prime rationale for vaccination so far has been to protect the vulnerable half of the population (serious illness or worse from C19) and allow the NHS to cope. In contrast , the primary purpose of vaccination of the under 50s is to reduce (to the point of herd immunity) the rate of infection in the community rather than protecting them from serious illness.
JCVI (30 Dec): "the first priorities for the current COVID-19 vaccination programme should be the prevention of COVID-19 mortality and the protection of health and social care staff and systems. Secondary priorities could include vaccination of those at increased risk of hospitalisation and at increased risk of exposure, and to maintain resilience in essential public services."

 

[newfhouse]

I shall be cross if the poxy EU messes up my second jab, although I tend to think the second one is not so important.

My understanding is that the second is more about longevity of protection than resistance to infection. Do any of the experts here have a view?

 

[fossyant]

Just in a meeting with colleagues, and it looks like over half of us are being vaccinated in the next few days, including one that's 30, but she has some auto-immune conditions.

 

[Ajax Bay]

My understanding is that the second is more about longevity of protection than resistance to infection. Do any of the experts here have a view?

I think this BMJ article (6 January) gives a good overview. A single dose of Pfizer vaccine has been estimated to achieve 89% effectiveness after 21 days and the Oxford-AZ vaccine 70% (although later data suggest better than that (over 90% iirc)). I extract one comment:
"Andrew Pollard, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group and chief investigator into the trial of [the Oxford-AZ] vaccine, said that extending the gap between vaccines made biological sense. “Generally, a longer gap between vaccine doses leads to a better immune response, with the second dose causing a better boost. (With HPV vaccine for girls, for example, the gap is a year and gives better responses than a one month gap.) From the Oxford vaccine trials, there is 70% protection after the first dose up to the second dose, and the immune response was about three times greater after the second dose when the second dose was delayed, comparing second dose after four weeks versus second dose after 2-3 months,"
Experts in vaccinology have better things to do than post on CycleChat, I hope!

 

[dodgy]

Do any of the experts here have a view?

Enthusiastic amateurs, perhaps 🤷‍♂️

 

[PK99]

I think this BMJ article (6 January) gives a good overview. A single dose of Pfizer vaccine has been estimated to achieve 89% effectiveness after 21 days and the Oxford-AZ vaccine 70% (although later data suggest better than that (over 90% iirc)). I extract one comment:
"Andrew Pollard, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group and chief investigator into the trial of [the Oxford-AZ] vaccine, said that extending the gap between vaccines made biological sense. “Generally, a longer gap between vaccine doses leads to a better immune response, with the second dose causing a better boost. (With HPV vaccine for girls, for example, the gap is a year and gives better responses than a one month gap.) From the Oxford vaccine trials, there is 70% protection after the first dose up to the second dose, and the immune response was about three times greater after the second dose when the second dose was delayed, comparing second dose after four weeks versus second dose after 2-3 months,"
Experts in vaccinology have better things to do than post on CycleChat, I hope!

The Zoe Webinar last week made that exact point.
The decision to increase the gap was not a gamble it was based on sound science.

 

[mjr]

The decision to increase the gap was not a gamble it was based on sound science.

It was both. It was a gamble but that one looked like a good bet.

 

[Buck]

We’ve been given assurance that second dose supplies are ok and to plan these in (both Pfizer and AZ). We have sight of deliveries for the first two weeks in April which hopefully will remain valid!

I shall be cross if the poxy EU messes up my second jab, although I tend to think the second one is not so important.

I also support the policy of giving as many people as possible a jab, so wouldn't be bothered if my second was cancelled in order for someone else to get their first.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Second highest ever number of doses administered on 17 March: 581k (first and second doses combined). 609k doses were given on 30 Jan.
Here is the NHS England "COVID-19-vaccination-deployment-next-steps-on-uptake-and-supply-letter"
Shedloads of vaccine for anyone over 50 (or UHC/CEV) with the aim to complete by end of the month. From 29 Mar (for 4 weeks), all jabs (more or less) will be second doses, for those (over 80s, care home residents and staff, and health and social care workers - JCVI Gp 1-2) who got their first dose in January.

 

[Chislenko]

Which ever way you look at it, it is a remarkable effort.

Just a shame that some kn--heads still feel the need to flount lockdown rules whilst others are working their butts off to try and make the population safe.

 

[dodgy]

Just a shame that some kn--heads still feel the need to flount lockdown rules whilst others are working their butts off to try and make the population safe.

like the large group of pensioners stopped to fix a puncture at a pinch point on ncn568 [burton marsh greenway] yesterday, forcing people to squeeze through them to get past. I gave them my compliments. Support bubble my arse.