COVID Vaccine !

[Craig the cyclist]

Fine. Here's an actual expert.


View: https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1412306682626121729?s=19


You go back to her, and I'll go back to vacc.

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Yes, but facemasks haven't been banned have they?

Back to vaccines, how do we increase the amount of people taking up the offer then? There are 000,000s of Cohort 1-9 patients still not coming forward, do we all stay restricted until they are all jabbed, even though we know that the vast majority are always going to refuse? How do we release the restrictions if people are refusing the vaccine, or do we get to a place where they are placed at risk by their own actions and we are kind of happy with that?

 

[mjr]

When the chain: R >>>> Cases >>>> Hospitalisations >>>> ICU >>>>Deaths
was as it was pre Vaccine, R was a valid proxy measure for controlling impact on NHS and reducing the Death rate.

Vaccination has broken that direct chain and R is now not the useful measure it was.

The vaccines have weakened, not broken, that chain, plus there is also the R >>>> Cases >>>> Variant propagation chain to consider. More cases will mean more deaths, one way or another.

Also, did experts switch to naming variants after Greek letters partly because they expect Boris or Bolsonaro to allow more to escape?

 

[Craig the cyclist]

Also, did experts switch to naming variants after Greek letters partly because they expect Boris or Bolsonaro to allow more to escape?

No, of course not, it was to remove a geographical location from the variant, so idiots wouldn't discriminate, or even violently attack, people from that place.

 

[mjr]

You are happy to discriminate against people who use public transport too. Very good.

There is literally no reasonable reading of "putting more money into decent cycling and walking commuting/shopping routes to get people out of enclosed bus/tram and polluting cars" that means "discriminate against people who use public transport", nor is vaccinating all willing-and-able people translatable to "compulsory vaccination".

This sort of consistent misinterpretation is probably why few people will post alternative plans here. I'm happy to defend my suggestions, but not your misinterpretations and inventions: that's a fight you will have to have with your imagination.

 

[mjr]

No, of course not, it was to remove a geographical location from the variant, so idiots wouldn't discriminate, or even violently attack, people from that place.

Oh. How many people from Kent were violently attacked?

 

[Craig the cyclist]

Oh. How many people from Kent were violently attacked?

Probably none at all. Maybe take it up with the experts, they are the ones worried about stigmatising and attacks on people from certain areas?

https://www.who.int/news/item/31-05...r-sars-cov-2-variants-of-interest-and-concern

 

[Craig the cyclist]

part of it would be vaccinating everyone who can be

is different to

vaccinating all willing-and-able people

We can literally vaccinate everyone, you didn't mention 'willing' in the first post, just 'everyone who can be'.

Now we know you don't believe in compulsory vaccination, what do we do about unlocking as you don't want to unlock until the risk is virtually nil for everyone but 000,000s of people are refusing to be vaccinated. At what point do we say, ok, you are on your own from October/November/December the 1st. Or do we all stay locked down forever?

 

[Andy in Germany]

Probably none at all. Maybe take it up with the experts, they are the ones worried about stigmatising and attacks on people from certain areas?

https://www.who.int/news/item/31-05...r-sars-cov-2-variants-of-interest-and-concern

Hmm. I wonder why they may be worried about stigmatising and attacks on people from certain areas?

I can't imagine why that would be a problem...

 

[Andy in Germany]

Alternative C-19 strategy?

1: Ask scientists with expertise in the relevant field for the best response to the current situation

2: Resource the health system to achieve what they suggest.

3: Let experts on the ground do the actual work

4: Repeat.

(I'm not entirely convinced the German government is doing brilliantly on this, by the way)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm not entirely convinced the German government is doing brilliantly on this, by the way

My general view has been "do what Germany are doing" is a reasonable first answer to "what should Britain do"?

I read today that it's being proposed to open up fully only after all adults have been vaccinated (or had the opportunity)

Is that correct? And do you know if that means one dose or two?

 

[mjr]

We can literally vaccinate everyone, you didn't mention 'willing' in the first post, just 'everyone who can be'.

I apologise for earlier slack phrasing, but it was still a long way from compulsion, and I would say we cannot "literally vaccinate everyone" because medics would refuse to vaccinate those expected to have fatal reactions, assuming they uphold the GMC standards and refuse to do intentional harm.

you don't want to unlock until the risk is virtually nil for everyone

More invention!

At what point do we say, ok, you are on your own from October/November/December the 1st.

Not yet. Maybe that point will come, maybe it won't, but "you are on your own from 19 July" is grossly irresponsible, an abdication of government.

Or do we all stay locked down forever?

We've not been locked down for months, so it won't be "stay locked down".

 

[Andy in Germany]

Or do we all stay locked down forever?

And you accuse @DCLane of hyperbole?

 

[PK99]

My general view has been "do what Germany are doing" is a reasonable first answer to "what should Britain do"?

I read today that it's being proposed to open up fully only after all adults have been vaccinated (or had the opportunity)

Is that correct? And do you know if that means one dose or two?

this report reads as if it is one and 100% offered without specifying take up needed:

Germany should lift all remaining Covid restriction by end of August – minister
Germany should lift all remaining coronavirus-linked social and economic curbs as soon as everyone has been offered a vaccine, foreign minister Heiko Maas was quoted as saying this morning, suggesting that point should be reached next month.
Around 56.5% of people in Germany have received at least one dose and almost 39% are fully vaccinated, according to health ministry data.
“When everyone in Germany has received a vaccine offer, there is no longer a legal or political justification for any kind of restriction,” Maas told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. That should occur sometime during August, he added.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has previously said she wants to offer everyone in Germany a vaccine by 21 September.

(grauniad)

 

[Andy in Germany]

My general view has been "do what Germany are doing" is a reasonable first answer to "what should Britain do"?

I read today that it's being proposed to open up fully only after all adults have been vaccinated (or had the opportunity)

Is that correct? And do you know if that means one dose or two?

I'm not so sure, we dropped the ball at one point although things have improved now. Honestly I haven't checked today. I do know there was a proposal yesterday that people who had both vaccine shots should be exempted from restrictions (which a damn fool idea as my mask is to protect other people, so you can see we aren't immune to daft ideas...) Fortunately this has to get through several layers of government before it can be applied, and I think the state governments have the final say anyway.

Equally "everyone has a vaccination" isn't going to happen, because that would mean forcing people and that would be constitutionally impossible.

It may be that once everyone has been offered the vaccine, then those who refuse will be considered partly responsible if they catch it, so restrictions can theoretically be lifted. Currently we're at about 55% first caccine and 38% fully vaccinated; things are speeding up.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

Alternative C-19 strategy?

1: Ask scientists with expertise in the relevant field for the best response to the current situation

2: Resource the health system to achieve what they suggest.

3: Let experts on the ground do the actual work

4: Repeat.

(I'm not entirely convinced the German government is doing brilliantly on this, by the way)

That seems entirely reasonable on the face of it.

1. In the UK though we have an expert, Prof Chris Whitty, saying that face masks should become voluntary and a matter of personal choice except in three scenarios a) indoors and crowded, b) if asked to do so by 'a competent authority', c) if the person you are with feels uncomfortable and would like you to. That was his advice, the government took it, now they apparently don't care if we all die.
We also have an expert highlighted above by @winjim saying that face masks should remain.
I can't be arsed to look because you should wear a mask, but I bet you could find a Dr or Professor who would say there is no need to wear a mask.

So the first point is pick your expert, and as we know the definition of an expert is someone learned, hopefully a professor, who agrees with your opinion.

2. If they suggest 'social measures', then funding the health service won't matter. You need to find a way to incentivise the public to behave as you wish. As we have discussed, there will always be people who are almost unaccountable for, the nobhead who lied and went to the football is a good example. Personally, if he isn't going to comply, and they can catch him, bang him up for 100 days in solitary confinement, and don't let him out until he has been doubled jabbed. But hey, I am an extremist, and would advocate compulsory vaccination unless you were severely allergic to an ingredient of the vaccine, and even then I would probably give you another one. Carrots aren't working, it's time for a stick.

3. See point 1. Pick your expert.

4. Yep, just go round and round until everyone is jabbed, I agree.

But as we know that our current expert is saying the 19th seems reasonable, what are we to do? We can't go against the experts, so we have to relax our restrictions.