Thanks for all of the replies.
Consensus of opinion does seem to bear out that a 58 inch frame is right for me - and, indeed, I would agree with that.
I do wonder if a lot of my concern is driven by this compact frame geometry malarkey (where a frame that measures 51 cm BB to top tube is, in fact, equivalent to a 58 cm).
A lot of my assessment has been done static in the garage - so I think I just need to get out and ride the thing, rather than simply sitting on it, thinking, "strewth, with my leg at the top of the pedal stroke and my hands on the drops, my knee touches my forearm". In fact, when I see pictures of riders on road bikes in magazines - that actually looks like a norm.
I do think there's a lot of truth in the observation that it's easier to make a smaller bike fit than one that's too large to start off with and, I suppose if comfort does become an issue, I can always try a longer stem / adjustable stem etc.
Really appreciate all the advice given so far.
Cheers,
Ian.