How can you tell if a trend will last or not?

[MontyVeda]

It depends on practicality, marketing and built in redundancy. Often standards are changed to force people to upgrade / replace or create a "new" market. If you take mountain biking disk brakes, suspension and gearing have improved things massively. 3 x 8 gearing works fine but 2 x 11 or 1 x 11 is easier to use. Disc brakes are much better than the early 1990's cantilever brakes which were brakes in name only. The improvement in riding from 1990's rigid to current suspension designs is huge. The trick is to buy what works for you but is not too far off the mainstream to be supported.

absolute twaddle... my cantis have been stopping me for over twenty years.

 

[marzjennings]

there's still plenty of blanks going on Ebay... or do you mean prerecorded?

Cheers, but I used my old mini-disc player as an example of technology that came and went. I actually chucked it out last year along with a whole bunch of old tech that was either taking up space or was unrepairable.

 

[Racing roadkill]

The way I look at it is, If it’s evolution, it will last, if it’s change for the sake of change, it won’t. As the saying goes, you have to innovate, or you’ll evaporate, but if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it.

 

[Kajjal]

absolute twaddle... my cantis have been stopping me for over twenty years.

If you have early 1990's mountain cantis and are taking them down a steep, rough off road trail then they are not stopping you. They are nothing like the current ones on road bikes. Google a picture of an early 1990's mountain bike and you will see why.

 

[simon.r]

Here to stay or gone tomorrow? How do you judge?

From a practical perspective, as long as you don’t buy into anything particularly outrageous, I don’t think it matters.

Thinking of the numerous bikes I’ve owned since the early 90’s I can’t think of much that I couldn’t replace with a new part fairly easily. 7 speed cassettes, cantilever brake blocks, threaded headsets etc. are all still widely available.

The only exceptions I can think of that may not be available are elastomers to fit Proflex MTB’s and parts for suspension forks (though it wouldn’t surprise if someone, somewhere, is making things to order).

 

[pawl]

Internal cables.only one of my bikes has an internal cable,that to the rear brake.As far as I can tell it has a full length outer.

A few months ago I was in the market fo a hybrid for riding easy tracks and trails. Unable to find a decent one that didn’t have disks.
Like my bikes to look like bikes I know I’m a dinosaur.

 

[derrick]

I can't see electric shifting staying around for long... the beauty of bikes is the simplicity.

My first MTB back in the mid 90s had elliptical chain rings but I've not seen them since... I don't miss them either.

Therew is nothing more simple than Di2, it's them old cables that won't last.

 

[booze and cake]

If its an improvement on current gear in terms of performance, cost, reliability and longevity, it has every right to succeed. How many trends promise all that though, not many. Apart from tyres, I rarely hear mention of the last one, manufacturers would obviously prefer us to buy more often.

Press fit bottom brackets is a classic case of something led by the industry, that as far as I can see only offered benefits for the manufacturer. For the user it was maybe a tiny bit lighter but not enough to make any difference. It was surely cheaper and easier for carbon frame moulds for manufacturers, and I guess cheaper to manufacture the BB itself as it needs less variants, but that didn't go well at all. As far as I could see they didn't offer any of the 4 benefits I look out for, and I don't expect we'll see high prices for them on ebay in the near or distant future.

Taking out the obvious crazy outlier listings, and the premium priced all new shiny bells and whistles things, I think ebay prices give you a good idea of what people really think, real market prices. I've not got the tech skills to do it, but I'm sure doing some analysis of components and accessories that have been released over the last 20 years, and checking ebay prices of them, would make some interesting reading on what's been hot and what's not, and I bet the 'hots' are not the ones that have been 'pushed/advertised' the most.

I think manufacturers could learn a lot from doing such research and not just concentrating on shifting volume. Haven't Jaguar recently started remaking modern versions of their old classic XKSS because second values of the original cars were going for such huge money, Jaguar figured there's probably more profit margins than their new cars and they may as well cash in and start making them again.

Us cyclists are a varied bunch, and try lots of stuff. With the existence of forums like this, we share our experiences and recommend stuff. I am far more likely to buy something on the recommendation of a friend or someone that has actually used it over time, than by what some manufacturer claims, but maybe that's because I'm a middle aged cynic

 

[bpsmith]

Aero frames will become the norm as more people realise that everyone can gain more speed or use less effort. Once the UCI remove or reduce the minimum bike weight, then those aero frames will soon weigh even less than now.

Traditional frame styles will soon resurge, obviously, as those Old Skool folk rebel but Aero will take over. I even think that this will overflow into other genres than just Road bikes.

I also think that we will see frames without cable routing for gears soon. Basically utilising eTap style connectivity. Just need a wireless braking solution and this changes everything.

 

[fatjel]

I think bikes have changed barely at all since I've been riding them.
The frames are much as they have been for decades
Derailleurs have been most cyclists gears of choice for decades despite being impossible to spell
Wheels are still round with rubber outers like they have been for decades
Saddles are still uncomfortable
Steering is achieved by a bar and leaning technique same as always

Disc brakes are a bit new but still rely on a lever pulling process and friction

Cyclist don't much like change it would seem

 

[mikeymustard]

I even think that this will overflow into other genres than just Road bikes.

Yes, why are electric bikes so resolutely "upright"? (apart from the ones in the peloton, obviously ) A bit of aero would do wonders for the longevity of a battery charge

 

[bpsmith]

Yes, why are electric bikes so resolutely "upright"? (apart from the ones in the peloton, obviously ) A bit of aero would do wonders for the longevity of a battery charge

Perhaps they assume that anyone who would rather a battery powering the wheels would actually want to sit as upright as possible?

 

[mikeymustard]

Perhaps they assume that anyone who would rather a battery powering the wheels would actually want to sit as upright as possible?

Yep, fair point, largely they seem to be modelled on the dutch bike style, but until battery technology improves then a few watts saved is a few extra miles

 

[bpsmith]

Yep, fair point, largely they seem to be modelled on the dutch bike style, but until battery technology improves then a few watts saved is a few extra miles

If that works for people then what’s not to like I guess?

I got schooled on a climb on the commute last week. It’s 1.3 miles long, averages about 3.8%, with some bits in double figures up to about 14% max.

This guy went past me at the traffic lights at the bottom. I tried to catch up but couldn’t. I thought I would play the long game as he spun away sitting casually. I couldn’t get anywhere near him until the very top when he had slowed on the flat. Then he was off again.

Anyway, about 3 miles further on, I caught up with him before he just stopped and was tapping his hand against the large black box of the down tube on his Giant MTB with knobblies!

Yup. His battery had cut out completely. No surprise after caning it up the hill and for a few miles after.

 

[Shut Up Legs]

I really hope wireless braking never takes over from brakes requiring cables. This would just turn our bikes into yet another thing requiring battery chargers. I've always thought bicycles are superior to cars, and one reason why is their simple, battery-free mechanical design.