How can you tell if a trend will last or not?

[mgs315]

I really hope wireless braking never takes over from brakes requiring cables. This would just turn our bikes into yet another thing requiring battery chargers. I've always thought bicycles are superior to cars, and one reason why is their simple, battery-free mechanical design.

Thankfully it seems too inconvenient/not fail-safe in order to happen. Either you’d have to have them fail on which means the bike can’t be ridden at all, or even worse fail off so you can’t stop!

Brake by wire sounds way too dangerous for my liking on bicycles. Maybe consider if dynamo power is mandatory to use such a system. Not to mention you’d still need some form of hydraulic actuator and all that stuff. Not weight friendly eh?

Maybe there’s a future for it if we ever end up with graphene frames but the UCI still keep the 6.8kg rule!

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

It depends on practicality, marketing and built in redundancy. Often standards are changed to force people to upgrade / replace or create a "new" market. If you take mountain biking disk brakes, suspension and gearing have improved things massively. 3 x 8 gearing works fine but 2 x 11 or 1 x 11 is easier to use. Disc brakes are much better than the early 1990's cantilever brakes which were brakes in name only. The improvement in riding from 1990's rigid to current suspension designs is huge. The trick is to buy what works for you but is not too far off the mainstream to be supported.

If everybody refused to buy any of the marketing-driven crap ideas (like press-fit BB, threadless headsets, 1 x 11 drives, ultra low spoke count wheels, bikes with no tyre/mudguard clearance etc) then no matter how much they might want to force cyclists to "modernise", they would be left with unsold product. People who buy this rubbish are their own worst enemies as they are putting money into the pockets of corporations who are selling them something which is worse, not better, than the designs that have been around for years. I just look at 90% of the design features I see on modern road bikes and think "no thanks pal, you can keep all that junk"

MTB's are a good example; for the kind of "off-road" riding 99% of owners do, there is absolutely no benefit whatsoever to having suspension, yet the industry no longer makes high quality all-rigid MTB's. The vast majority of riders are NOT extreme downhill racers, or jumpers, they are just blokes who like to clock up a few miles away from busy traffic on bumpy gravel and dirt tracks. Speed is not a consideration, and a rigid frame is not that punishing if the bike is ridden intelligently and not hammered. All it means is people like me who don't want the extra complication and weight of suspension, are simply going to keep riding 25-30 year old rigids from the days when MTB design was practical, simple, and versatile. If I don't want the full-sus product I'm just not buying it, no matter what hype they come out with about being faster and more comfortable.

 

[Blue Hills]

I can't see electric shifting staying around for long... the beauty of bikes is the simplicity.

Won't it stay at the top end? For anyone else, it amuses me.

 

[Blue Hills]

But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or recreatable. Unlike my old mini-disc player for which I can’t find new discs for.

For me I’ve always kept an eye on new trends, but only really bought in after a year or two when the new idea seems to be sticking around. Once it seems a new trend is supported by multiple manufactures it’s a reasonably safe bet the new tech has legs for a for years. For example I don’t see anti-lock brakes ever becoming the norm, or even a hub that can control tyre pressure really taking off.

Firstly all technology has a shelf life and in general we have to accept whatever we buy today will be incompatible in a few years. But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or

Yes, older stuff still available, and there is still lots of new old stuff turning up on ebay.

 

[Blue Hills]

One thing that won't be sticking around, already gone I think, is the madness of the suspension hub. Ditched my sus hub front on the dahon for a normal wheel. Which of course was fine. In my defence, i didn't seek this thing out, it came on a bike.

 

[Blue Hills]

The way I look at it is, If it’s evolution, it will last, if it’s change for the sake of change, it won’t. As the saying goes, you have to innovate, or you’ll evaporate, but if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it.

Mm, lots of stuff evolves beyond usefulness. We're not talking darwinian evolution here. Also, the pressure to innovate you mention is often business driven, to stop bits becoming commodities.

 

[Blue Hills]

A few months ago I was in the market fo a hybrid for riding easy tracks and trails. Unable to find a decent one that didn’t have disks.
.

If you don't like discs, then I'd buy a nice lightly used second hand bike. Still a fair few around.

 

[MontyVeda]

Won't it stay at the top end? For anyone else, it amuses me.

possibly... for those with a team mechanic to check and change the batteries at the end of each ride. For everyone else, they'll realise that they're useless with a flat battery, are far too expensive to replace when damaged and will go back to a gear shifting mechanism that simply works.

 

[Blue Hills]

agree with you totally monty. Still, we can smile as folk with these things who really really don't need one are reduced to posting questions about faults/quirks on forums that to an outsider sound like the all too familiar computer problems. Have already seen a few asking about compatibility issues. One would think people would ride their bikes to get away from tech and other worldly concerns. I do.

 

[MontyVeda]

agree with you totally monty. Still, we can smile as folk with these things who really really don't need one are reduced to posting questions about faults/quirks on forums that to an outsider sound like the all too familiar computer problems. Have already seen a few asking about compatibility issues. One would think people would ride their bikes to get away from tech and other worldly concerns. I do.

they be electrifying the wheels next...

 

[Kajjal]

If everybody refused to buy any of the marketing-driven crap ideas (like press-fit BB, threadless headsets, 1 x 11 drives, ultra low spoke count wheels, bikes with no tyre/mudguard clearance etc) then no matter how much they might want to force cyclists to "modernise", they would be left with unsold product. People who buy this rubbish are their own worst enemies as they are putting money into the pockets of corporations who are selling them something which is worse, not better, than the designs that have been around for years. I just look at 90% of the design features I see on modern road bikes and think "no thanks pal, you can keep all that junk"

MTB's are a good example; for the kind of "off-road" riding 99% of owners do, there is absolutely no benefit whatsoever to having suspension, yet the industry no longer makes high quality all-rigid MTB's. The vast majority of riders are NOT extreme downhill racers, or jumpers, they are just blokes who like to clock up a few miles away from busy traffic on bumpy gravel and dirt tracks. Speed is not a consideration, and a rigid frame is not that punishing if the bike is ridden intelligently and not hammered. All it means is people like me who don't want the extra complication and weight of suspension, are simply going to keep riding 25-30 year old rigids from the days when MTB design was practical, simple, and versatile. If I don't want the full-sus product I'm just not buying it, no matter what hype they come out with about being faster and more comfortable.

I know what you mean and started mountain biking on a fully rigid GT outpost in the early 1990's. On woodland or smooth trails it was ideal. Going round rougher tracks especially like those in the Edale area you took a real pounding and front suspension was a relief when it became affordable. Before that we used to finish a ride of a few hours and be unable to move our hands for a while

Now I ride a hardtail and a full suspension bike as the trails near us are most fairly smooth but my middle aged body is not so forgiving now on the rough stuff if out for a good while. The main thing is just enjoy what ever riding you prefer.

 

[Vapin' Joe]

possibly... for those with a team mechanic to check and change the batteries at the end of each ride. For everyone else, they'll realise that they're useless with a flat battery, are far too expensive to replace when damaged and will go back to a gear shifting mechanism that simply works.

In the same way motorists and motorcyclists went back to starting handles and kick starts, you mean?

Like it or not, electronic shifting is here to stay. Systems will get cheaper and more reliable, working their way down the price points on new bikes till they are commonplace. Cable systems will be around for a very long time to come, but electronics won't go away.

 

[Blue Hills]

they be electrifying the wheels next...

and more.

Since updates/bug fixes etc etc/protection against lack of availability of compatible version 1.1111 parts will be issues folk will want to protect themselves against, the gear control system will be rented to its users on a subscription bases. All will be well as long as you keep paying. If you don't your bike will effectively lock up.

 

[MontyVeda]

In the same way motorists and motorcyclists went back to starting handles and kick starts, you mean?

Like it or not, electronic shifting is here to stay. Systems will get cheaper and more reliable, working their way down the price points on new bikes till they are commonplace. Cable systems will be around for a very long time to come, but electronics won't go away.

Not a great comparison, since motor vehicles already had the electric bits.

One could argue that when some bright spark put a motor on a bike and hey-presto, invented the motorbike that the old fashioned manual bike will be a thing of the past.

 

[Venod]

Indicators, right angled bent cranks, oval chainrings (though there are people who use these) are a some of ideas that never took off, I am sure there must be more, I am surprised gear shifters are still manufactured with indicators (who came up with that one ?) are Midge Bars a trend or a genuine improvement ?

And while I am here and talking of old stuff, if anyone has a Cannondale Caffiene SL with a headshock let me know.