How predictable are grand tours?

[Dogtrousers]

This popped up on PCS yesterday and I thought it was interesting.

I'm not sure where the figures come from, I presume it's from a "pick the winner" comp on PCS.

I suspect the numbers reflect a fantasy cycling approach where being named in a team counts as being picked. But if that's the case ... poor old Tao. Absolutely nobody at all picked him in their 2020 Giro team, not even by mistake.

This would mean the numbers aren't as dramatic s they appear. A score of, say 76% for Jonas for the 2022 tour doesn't mean that 76% of people predicted he would win (that would have been very odd seeing as Pog had just won two on the bounce). I think it just means 76% had him in their team, which is less interesting.

Anyway the 2016-2025 averages are: Vuelta - 76.3%, Tour - 80.3%, Giro 48.7% That makes the Giro the least predictable, which makes sense.

 

[Pblakeney]

They are very predictable.




When the favourite wins.

 

[Sharky]

I think statistically, the rider most likely to win, is the ridder that won it the previous year.

 

[mididoctors]

This popped up on PCS yesterday and I thought it was interesting.

View attachment 814044
I'm not sure where the figures come from, I presume it's from a "pick the winner" comp on PCS.

I suspect the numbers reflect a fantasy cycling approach where being named in a team counts as being picked. But if that's the case ... poor old Tao. Absolutely nobody at all picked him in their 2020 Giro team, not even by mistake.

This would mean the numbers aren't as dramatic s they appear. A score of, say 76% for Jonas for the 2022 tour doesn't mean that 76% of people predicted he would win (that would have been very odd seeing as Pog had just won two on the bounce). I think it just means 76% had him in their team, which is less interesting.

Anyway the 2016-2025 averages are: Vuelta - 76.3%, Tour - 80.3%, Giro 48.7% That makes the Giro the least predictable, which makes sense.

Well apparently one in four GTs is a surprise

 

[Dogtrousers]

Well apparently one in four GTs is a surprise

And just under three quarters of the surprises are Giros
And about half of the Giros are a surprise.

 

[Dogtrousers]

I think statistically, the rider most likely to win, is the ridder that won it the previous year.

In its entire history this has happened on 24% of the editions*. Since 2010 it has been 31% of the editions

*28% if you include the "no winner" years 1999-2005

So it happens roughly a third of the time.

 

[mididoctors]

Numbers don't lie

 

[TakeTheHighRoad]

There's a relatively small pool of riders who can realistically win a Grand Tour, if everything goes to plan.

That's become even smaller post-Covid where one of Pog or Ving show up

 

[wakemalcolm]

Sombrero to whoever picked out Carapaz for the 2019 Giro. I can't remember him being part of the conversation.....and neither does Nibali.

 

[Pross]

They are very predictable.




When the favourite wins.

They're predictable when the big two turn up (especially when only one turns up). The races where neither have attended are the ones that haven't been predictable other than the Vuelta in 2024 where it was internal politics.

 

[Pross]

Biggest surprise for me was the lack of predictions for Thomas in 2018 considering Froome had done the Giro and they went in as joint leaders from memory (the amount predicting Bernal the following year is also a bit surprising too).

 

[wakemalcolm]

Biggest surprise for me was the lack of predictions for Thomas in 2018 considering Froome had done the Giro and they went in as joint leaders from memory (the amount predicting Bernal the following year is also a bit surprising too).

Agree, wonder who won the popular vote there?

Primoz was tearing up some of the 1 week races but he was still, at that stage, the coming man rather than the established contender, whereas G gifted a couple of early stage races and monstered the Dauphiné.

Froome was both exhausted and, to some extent, a busted flush in terms of breakaway fuelling technique.

 

[Pblakeney]

They're predictable when the big two turn up (especially when only one turns up). The races where neither have attended are the ones that haven't been predictable other than the Vuelta in 2024 where it was internal politics.

The results show that is was fairly predictable before 2020 though with all the exceptions coming in the Giro, apart from GT.

 

[Pross]

The results show that is was fairly predictable before 2020 though with all the exceptions coming in the Giro, apart from GT.

Mainly as Froome was the dominant GT rider at that time. It just shows we nearly always have one rider that is dominant other than maybe a brief period between them losing their powers and the next one coming along. Possibly with the current crop there'll be an overlap between the end of the Pog and Jonas era and the start of Del Toro / Seixas (if they all ended up on different teams).

 

[mjr]

(the amount predicting Bernal the following year is also a bit surprising too).

Thomas historically not ever rated, even when he wins, plus Bernal attracting the usual surprising number of fans of South American star riders.