Dusty Bin
Guest
The overall probability of a crash, lets say for simplicity is a function of unavoidable incidents and avoidable incidents. Assume unavoidable incidents constant but avoidable incidents to vary with regards level of experience/skill. With increased experience/skill (which can be gained through chaingangs and club rides etc, for example not falling off when someone touches you or leans on you, not overlapping wheels when avoidable, general stuff, nothing fancy etc), this value will decrease. Thus with an increase in experience/skill, avoidable incidents decrease, therefore the overall probability of a crash also decreases!
None of this proposes that avoidable incidents are eliminated, only that they are reduced. Thus reducing the overall probability of a crash.
What are your definitions of avoidable/unavoidable incidents? Give me practical examples from your extensive road racing experience.