RideLondon-Surrey 100 (2016) Anyone?

[cosmicbike]

I've got a place as I was unable to do this year through ill health. Not sure if I will be able next year either/ but have until October to decide.

 

[Chutzpah]

My wife is definitely applying. I'm undecided as I'm petrified of stumbling in if she doesn't, due to her being unable to do it this year due to her collarbone.

 

[Tomtrumps]

Definitely applying. This year was one of my favourite days of anything ever! If I don't get in through the ballot I may have to consider a charity place and stump up the minimum myself as I promised everyone who sponsored me this year that I won't be asking again!

 

[Beebo]

I will be riding next year, as I had to pull out this year.

 

[Racing roadkill]

I'll put my name in the hat. The beauty thing about it is, that there really won't be any pressure on me this year, if I get in (on the ballot) that's fine and dandy, if not, that's no biggie, 'cos I has dun it before, innit. I'll do the free ride no matter what.

 

[Racing roadkill]

I've been told I should enter, I'm not sure. I definitely couldn't do the distance at the moment, I'm just not in as good health as I was in 2014. I guess I could enter then defer if things have not got any better.

That's the thing, it's not till next August, plenty of time to judge if you're okay or not, if not, defer to ge following year. Better to put your name in the hat, and have the option.

 

[sleaver]

.....it's not till next August.....

July

 

[Zcapp96]

Then if you get a place, make a choice on if you take it up or not. If you don't take it up, I think it goes back into the places available for the people who get a second chance though donating their entry fee up front.

Unfortunately not, the extra draw for donating takes place at the same time. I would guess they give places to more people than they expect to turn up, so withdrawals or non-take up just brings the numbers down to what they want rather than create spaces to fill.

 

[sleaver]

An "unfortunately not" followed by a "I guess" doesn't really work

Anyway, I was thinking of how it works for some other events. RideLondon doesn't give you a second chance, just a jersey/jacket.

That said, if they draw the ballot in the same way as the marathon, then they do give more places than spaces because they know people won't complete the entry, defere or just not show up etc.

Other than that, it is a complete mystery as to how it works. You read runners say they don't get a place year after year, but then others saying they have got a ballot place every year they have entered.

 

[Zcapp96]

An "unfortunately not" followed by a "I guess" doesn't really work

The "unfortunately not" is for them drawing the ballets at the same time, I know this as when I was rejected in the ballot for 2014 I emailed them asking when the second ballot would be as I had donated my fee and was told they were drawn at the same time (Did it through Wellchild anyway) The "I guess" part is to vagaries of the ballot process!

Other than that, it is a complete mystery as to how it works. You read runners say they don't get a place year after year, but then others saying they have got a ballot place every year they have entered.

Lots of comments on the facebook reminder saying how unfair it is if someone gets in three years in a row but looking at it just in terms of probability it really isn't that unlikely! If there are 25000 places for 100000 applicants then that is only a 1 in 4 chance, so to get in three years running then that is still only 1 in 64. You would expect about 400 people to have done it 3 years in a row (assuming that all 25000 enter every year!). Two out of three years is even more likely at around 1 in 7 so you could have 3600 people who have done it for 2 years. To not get in at all is just over 1 in 2 so just under half of those that apply will not get in at all for the three years that it has run. This, of course, is assuming that it a completely random ballot! The number of entrants etc was lower in the first couple of years so the actual odds are even more favourable for three years in a row. Even those that don't get in for all four years (assuming they don't get in for next year) are not extremely unlucky as the odds are still only around 1 in 3!

 

[Racing roadkill]

July

Good point well made

 

[sleaver]

If there are 25000 places for 100000 applicants then that is only......

Sorry to pee on your statistics, but there are less ballot places than actual places due to deferred entries from last/this year, charities etc.

As you mention though, it is not completely random. They want a steady stream of people through the finish line and they also quote health and safety.

So, using the marathon as an example (should be the same theory for cycling, just more time), 4 to 5 hours is what most amateur runners aim for and say you have 10,000 ballot places with 100,000 applicants (I think it is actually more) with the following entries per estimated times:

2h30 - 3h: 10000
3h01 - 4h: 15000
4h01 - 5h: 50000
5h01 - 6h: 25000

So for them to get a steady stream, faster runners will have more chance because if it was completely random and they just happen to get 10,000 4h runners, that wouldn't make good TV.

Then you have to factor in gender as well because you could imagine the outcry if it was just men. Oh, don't forget age either because they can't have just young people. They probably even factor in your job as well.

So while it is random, it's a special random

All I know is that every ballot I have entered be it running or cycling, I have failed at everyone but that trend has to change sometime right........................

 

[Zcapp96]

Was just a quick estimate without knowing the weighting of the final ballot places according to times etc. I wonder, as well, if the fact you have done it before actually increases your chance in future ballots as they then have proof that you will actually turn up and do it, especially those that still did it last year in the extreme conditions.

 

[Elybazza61]

Well I've entered so see if I get in next year;and I've not donated as it obviously makes feck all differece.

 

[sleaver]

But is that what they want? In a really wet, potentially dangerous conditions, year if I were the organiser, I would be only too happy if one third didn't show up.

They are a non-profit organisation so they will want as much money they can get and good exposure helps that. What would it look like if you had an Olympic legacy event where they have a small field because of a bit of rain.

Not that it matters, but I think I actually saw less accidents last year than this year and it wasn't down to the descents as I didn't see any accidents at Leith or Box Hills.

This discussion could carry on for ages though because no one has a clue how the ballot works