SA lottery - nobbled?

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PaulB

Legendary Member
Location
Colne
Wasn't there a woman in one of the American states who did the lottery of adjoining states and won them both - the wrong way round? Say it was Arizona and New Mexico and she got all six numbers right on both but she had the New Mexico numbers on her Arizona lottery ticket and the Arizona ones on her New Mexico one! (It may not have been those two particular states and I couldn't be bothered sending an SAE to the Google Brothers and wait for their response but the gist is right).
 

Drago

Legendary Member
Its not more likely or unlikely than 1, 4, 11, 22, 26, 31 and 43 being drawn in that order. The odds of any given combination of 6 numbers being drawn is exactly the same, regardless of the numbers of comination.

The only difference is the human factor - the human brain likes patterns and quickly latches on to them, and the running flush here is a very obvious pattern, but its no more or less likely than any other 6 number combination in any given order.
 

si_c

Guru
Location
Wirral
I once rolled 4 double sixes on the trot when playing backgammon. My friend insisted that I must have cheated because it was "impossible" to have happened by chance. Ok, it was very unlikely (1,679,616:1), but it happened!

That's the odds of 4 rolls giving 4 double sixes. To calculate it correctly you would need to know the number of rolls taken throughout the entire game, and you could then calculate the odds of getting 4 double sixes consecutively at any point throughout that game which is different.
 

steverob

Guru
Location
Buckinghamshire
And as has been mentioned upthread already, Camelot did release figures once to show what the most popular picks of numbers were in the UK lottery and SO many people were playing either 1 through 6, or the "numbers from Lost" that if those did ever come out of the lottery machine, it would mean the winners sharing their jackpot with hundreds of other people, meaning it was not really a jackpot at all.

These winners in South Africa probably saw something like that and thought to themselves, well if 1-6 is really popular I'll avoid that and go for 5-10 instead, not realising 19 other people thought exactly the same thing! I bet that 10-15 would have had almost as many winners, as would 2,4,6,8,10,12 and any other sequences.
 

newfhouse

Resolutely on topic
in any given order
Given the same selection of numbers, drawing them in consecutive order is far less likely than drawing the same balls in random order. Say you chose 1,2,3,4,5,6 and the first drawn number is 1. The probability of the next ball being 2 is lower than it being either 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.
 

steverob

Guru
Location
Buckinghamshire
On the subject of these lotteries,is it me or have any of you noticed this last year or so that when the newspapers announce stuff like 'Was it you?! British winner wins 78,000,000 in last nights Euro Millions draw'!,that we don't see the 'winners' the following week or so popping the champagne corks in front of the cameras,like we used to see?🤔
It makes me think of the Accrington Stanley FC half time draw,when it was announced over the tannoy that the number 94736,was the winner of £237(for example). Yet,as many fans of the club said,'we didn't find out who the winner was'.🤔 Methinks 'winners' are sometimes made up and the lottery/half time draw organisers keep all the dosh! 🧐
I just think people feel that they don't need the publicity. If they can keep it quiet, they will and the lottery organisers are always willing to help them out in doing that. Heck if I won 78 million, it's not just the general public I'd keep it quiet from - there's members of my family I'd consider not telling!

But it does remind me of something my Dad hated (one of his regular "rants" at the TV) about these lottery winning photo-ops with the giant novelty cheque. He'd always complain about why these people weren't just taken aside by a PR person for 10 seconds before going out and reminded that if you want to spray champagne at the cameramen, you need to put your thumb over the bottle opening after the cork comes out, otherwise it just glugs out straight on to the ground and you look like an idiot! According to him this error happened at least half the time, though to be fair, it was probably just my Dad being a lush and fretting about the waste of good alcohol!
 

Ming the Merciless

There is no mercy
Location
Inside my skull
On the subject of these lotteries,is it me or have any of you noticed this last year or so that when the newspapers announce stuff like 'Was it you?! British winner wins 78,000,000 in last nights Euro Millions draw'!,that we don't see the 'winners' the following week or so popping the champagne corks in front of the cameras,like we used to see?🤔
It makes me think of the Accrington Stanley FC half time draw,when it was announced over the tannoy that the number 94736,was the winner of £237(for example). Yet,as many fans of the club said,'we didn't find out who the winner was'.🤔 Methinks 'winners' are sometimes made up and the lottery/half time draw organisers keep all the dosh! 🧐

I ticked the box saying I didn’t want any publicity
 

figbat

Slippery scientist
Its not more likely or unlikely than 1, 4, 11, 22, 26, 31 and 43 being drawn in that order.
Yes, the odds of any string of numbers being drawn in a given order are the same, whether consecutive, numerically-ordered or not. However, as stated above, the odds of 6 numbers being drawn in a given order are far lower than being drawn in any order.

Take our lottery - a 6 number string (ignoring the bonus ball since this is irrelevant for the jackpot). Numbers available are 1-59.

The odds of getting 1,2,3,4,5,6 in any order are (6/59)*(5/58)*(4/57)*(3/56)*(2/55)*(1/54) = approx 1:45 million.
The odds of getting 1,2,3,4,5,6 in that order are (1/59)*(1/58)*(1/57)*(1/56)*(1/55)*(1/54) = approx 1:32.4 billion.
 

ianrauk

Tattooed Beat Messiah
Location
Rides Ti2
When I was handling the lottery syndicate for an old workplace. One of the guys did use to have the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 saying that they were just as likely to win as any other random numbers.
 

newfhouse

Resolutely on topic
When I was handling the lottery syndicate for an old workplace. One of the guys did use to have the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 saying that they were just as likely to win as any other random numbers.
True, but the jackpot if far more likely to be shared with everyone that thinks the same.
 
They pick numbers like that as they are the people who say "I will never win so it doesn't matter what numbers I pick" well you got that wrong!!
 
Neither do I as I know with near certainty that I will never win the jackpot... except I’m in a syndicate at work. The thought of my colleagues winning and me being stuck there alone in my team horrifies me sufficiently that I ignore the odds and participate.
Yup - I was like that so I joined the work lottery

and we won quite a lot one week - but as it was split between 30 people it was not as spectacular as it might have been
hence we went with the publicity - partly to raise the profile of the school
fun day - but if I won it personally (which is unlikely as we never do it) I would never agree to publicity
although I hear they do have incentives - such as free financial advise and other stuff
 

Archie_tect

De Skieven Architek... aka Penfold + Horace
Location
Northumberland
Neither do I as I know with near certainty that I will never win the jackpot... except I’m in a syndicate at work. The thought of my colleagues winning and me being stuck there alone in my team horrifies me sufficiently that I ignore the odds and participate.
Ha, yes I joined in with our 3-man syndicate for those very reasons until I closed the practice... I've saved £200 since! We even had a letter, which we signed and dated, to confirm that we were a syndicate so that the lad who bought the ticket could distribute the winnings to us tax-free... all £120 of them over the years we did it. The best bit was after a particularly 'difficult' conversation we agreed to change the division- from 30% each and 10% to charity- to 33% each and 1% to charity, because they felt they were 'giving too much away' of the jackpot we never won!!
 
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