Well, yes, but the concept of selling policies at a profit being a bit of a nonsense means the concept of a discount is a bit of a nonsense, too. Like I wrote, insurers don't deliberately sell many policies below cost, but they expect there will be some. I suspect there may even be some analysis that the people who actually read their renewal notice and switch or phone to get better prices are lower risk than those who look at double that and think "I'm lucky to get that price, the way I behave".
You have misunderstood. Insurers do deliberately sell many policies below expected cost, for various reasons. Which is one of the main reasons why the private motor market as a whole tends to lose money. The concept of selling an
individual policy at a profit or a loss is nonsense because the majority of the actual (rather than expected) costs aren't known until the claims happen. There might be a behavioural analysis like the one you suggest, but I suspect that other factors are rather more important.
That's interesting. Care to explain the dynamics of the business model? Is it that the insurers are effectively (although not legally) obliged to offer personal vehicle insurance as part of their suite of products? Or is it that they expect to get some cross selling opportunities with other insurances? Or something else?
It's a number of things. There are some insurers who are extremely good at pricing risks - they do tend to make money. Because the market is so competitive, when you as an individual company get the price wrong you tend to get picked off all over the place and lose a
lot of money. Quite a lot of the insurers in the private motor market are
only (materially) in the private motor market, and need to keep up their volumes or shut down - and they seem to scrabble around to find other ways of making money. A lot has been tried, from add-ons like breakdown cover to owning brokers to cross-selling other products - but no-one seems to have found a magic bullet (and they all know that their business models are time-limited because of driverless cars).
And there are certainly companies who tolerate marginal and fluctuating results on personal motor because it's a prestige product, and the one with the biggest brand value.